Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[siegecrossbow]

At present, people are still arguing on the Internet because of the policy change.
Many people have given their own analysis of the reasons：
Some people think that this is because the serious financial difficulties lead to the policy can not continue to implement.

Others believe that the adjustment of the epidemic prevention plan at the beginning of this year was a mistake.

Here's a message from an alleged "insider" in Beijing：

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

He believed that by November, the policy could no longer be implemented, and adjustment was inevitable.
He believes the main reason is that the people are becoming less cooperative. Even administrators are generally demoralized.
In the past, people were willing to cooperate because of their fear of viruses.
“The problem is that in the past few months, people's fear of viruses has been completely dispelled by the amazing data reported in some parts of China.”
This makes many people feel that the current policy is meaningless.Then the situation deteriorated rapidly.

Chang Kaishen（常凯申）, a famous user in Zhihu（Account has been blocked），he thinks that this policy change is obviously an unplanned advance action.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

No matter the drug production capacity, season or personnel mobility, it is not the best time, which leads us to be passive overnight.
But his focus is more on the government's response to public opinion.
He believed that if the plan for policy change was announced to the public in advance, the mood of those who opposed it could be appropriately pacified and a three-month buffer period could be provided.
However, as always, the public opinion was out of control, but the government did not respond and allowed the situation to get out of control. The unwillingness to communicate, explain, explain and persuade directly leads to the government falling into a disadvantageous position repeatedly in emergencies.

To be honest, I don't know whether it is meaningful to discuss these, but the debate has not stopped. Some people think it would be better to postpone it to next year, while others think it should be fully open at the beginning of this year.

Reopening during summer is much better. People in northern cities will stay outdoor more and respiratory diseases are generally less deadly when it is warmer.

I agree that they have to reopen because infections are already out of control during November.

 

[KYli]

Those are Slavic (except Hungary)/Eastern European countries, which are not traditionally considered Western and only Western in the sense that they are in the EU/are European. You might as well add Russia or Ukraine to your list, which both have very low vaccination rates.

Both Russia and Ukraine aren't part of EU. As for other Eastern and Central European nations, I don't have a problem if you decided to kick these countries out of Western. Traditionally, they are all Westerners to most Chinese people.

I suppose now you can see what will occur when China has a similar vaccination rate among elderly to that of Taiwan (maybe 5-15% higher accounting for the recent push), plus a lower ICU capacity than both Taiwan and Hong Kong's. Yes, Hong Kong was the worst case scenario. Taiwan was better because their rate for over 80 was 66% (Hong Kong's rate for over 80 was 43%.)

I have been here saying that China vaccination for elderly isn't high enough for a year. Not sure why you think I need you to tell me that.

There's no way China can reach 90% or higher for its most vulnerable age groups as Japan, South Korea, and all of Western Europe + 5 Eyes did in a meaningful timeframe to prevent mass death in the 100,000's, as extrapolating Taiwan's deaths even with incredibly generous assumptions about the recent vaccination drive or ICU capacity building does not point to any other outcome (unless you believe in wildly exaggerated claims about inactivated vaccines' effectiveness or Lianhua Qingwen/TCM). The virus isn't several times milder than what impacted Taiwan either. Despite what government experts in China are currently saying, it's possible that the intrinsic severity discounting any previous exposures is only slightly lower than that of the ancestral strain.

Who says otherwise, I think your problem is you didn't stay focus on our debate and difference and drag me into your argument with other members. I have been saying for a long time. In a worst case scenario, China would have 1.6 millions deaths. But fortunately, that wouldn't be happening due to China has much higher vaccination rate than Hong Kong.

As for how many deaths would occur in China during the first big wave, anything from 250,000 to 1 million are still being scientifically possible estimation.

I write all this because some people even refused to think this was possible and believe the current death figure in this wave is somehow indicative of what's to come.

Most of people here acknowledged many deaths would occur. Why do you think people here are mostly against reopening. You are not an active member here in this thread and you didn't bother to read this thread. So don't make too much assumption of what others think.

For 2nd or 3rd doses administered after 11/28 to have any impact, there must be at least 14 days for the immune response to build. For those who were completely unvaccinated even more time be allotted for the intervals between the 1st and 2nd or 2nd and 3rd doses. In the past 20 days the NHC has estimated 18% of China's population has been infected. There are approximately 264 million people over age 60 in China and 35.8 million over 80 (as of 2020). So about 11.45 million were unvaccinated and over 80 as of 11/28 (using 32% subtracted from NHC data), who are the most vulnerable to death. If we assume those 24 million doses covered all of those unvaccinated 11 million, they would still be vulnerable for 1.5 (primary series) to 4 months (boosted) given the 3 month minimum interval (recently shortened) before being boosted.

There are all variables and estimate. And even though it is generally accepted that it would take 14 days for 2 dose to make an impact, that isn't the case for the booster shot as most studies think it takes 7-8 days for booster shot to make an impact.

In addition variables such as even one dose can make a difference to prevent hospitalizations and deaths. 3 doses are the optimal but even one dose does make a difference. Other variables such as an attempt to seal off nursing homes and how effective is such close loop system. As we all knew, a significant percentage of deaths occur in nursing homes.

And then you have variables such as how many percentage of general population would get infected before the first wave is over. Most studies seem to indicate 40%-60% but China seems to think it would be higher than 60%. In addition, many elderly are living in the rural area that don't have significant exposed to other urban areas. In the past, US rural area usually would only be hit with a surge weeks or sometime even a month or two after a surge in urban area.

In the end of the day, there are too much variables at the moment to make a precise estimate. But there are no question that many deaths would occur.

 

[Quickie]

Chengdu, the birthplace of the J-20 and J-10, is bustling with activities. Of course, western MSMs will never ever report on this kind of scene.

 

[Deleted member 23272]

To be honest, I don't know whether it is meaningful to discuss these, but the debate has not stopped. Some people think it would be better to postpone it to next year, while others think it should be fully open at the beginning of this year.

Simply put, yeah there's a strong divide in opinion. Many here feel zero Covid was done away because it was no longer sustainable. Others here are adamant on their beliefs the protests were engendered by the CIA, so they don't want to accept a narrative where the CIA won in getting China to abandon its policy. Or simply put, they can't imagine the CPC making this big of mistake, so they come up with all these conspiracies about how this was always pre-planned or that Xi Jinping is channeling his inner Cao Cao, and letting the protesters take the fall for the rise in deaths.

What's done is done, I too think its pointless to continue talking about all the "reasons" why zero Covid was abandoned or whether it should have been to begin with. Instead, we should focus on cutting through the Western media bs about 10,000 Chinese dying a day, and monitor the situation through anecdotes from those who have contacts in China and also through local media. I am still of the opinion things will peak soon and even the border with Hong Kong can be reopened in the January-February time frame, based on what I have heard.

 

[Quan8410]

What's done is done, I too think its pointless to continue talking about all the "reasons" why zero Covid was abandoned or whether it should have been to begin with. Instead, we should focus on cutting through the Western media bs about 10,000 Chinese dying a day, and monitor the situation through anecdotes from those who have contacts in China and also through local media. I am still of the opinion things will peak soon and even the border with Hong Kong can be reopened in the January-February time frame, based on what I have heard.

Who care about western media bias? Their citizens don't even trust them. Maybe they can fool the indian and vietnamese though.

 

[KYli]

Chengdu, the birthplace of the J-20 and J-10, is bustling with activities. Of course, western MSMs will never ever report on this kind of scene.

Chengdu and Beijing and a few other Chinese cities have peaked a few days ago and most of those who got infected in early Dec should have been recovered. I think due to the fact that the surge is so fast and widespread. Most of them would get back to their per-reopening normal sooner than most experts have predicted.

Within a few days, Shangahi and Zhejiang would also peak. And most people should be recovered before Chinese New Year. Most major cities and even second and third tier cities should be able to enjoyed Chinese New Year. .

 

[Icmer]

Both Russia and Ukraine aren't part of EU. As for other Eastern and Central European nations, I don't have a problem if you decided to kick these countries out of Western. Traditionally, they are all Westerners to most Chinese people.

I have been here saying that China vaccination for elderly isn't high enough for a year. Not sure why you think I need you to tell me that.

Who says otherwise, I think your problem is you didn't stay focus on our debate and difference and drag me into your argument with other members. I have been saying for a long time. In a worst case scenario, China would have 1.6 millions deaths. But fortunately, that wouldn't be happening due to China has much higher vaccination rate than Hong Kong.

As for how many deaths would occur in China during the first big wave, anything from 250,000 to 1 million are still being scientifically possible estimation.

Most of people here acknowledged many deaths would occur. Why do you think people here are mostly against reopening. You are not an active member here in this thread and you didn't bother to read this thread. So don't make too much assumption of what others think.

There are all variables and estimate. And even though it is generally accepted that it would take 14 days for 2 dose to make an impact, that isn't the case for the booster shot as most studies think it takes 7-8 days for booster shot to make an impact.

In addition variables such as even one dose can make a difference to prevent hospitalizations and deaths. 3 doses are the optimal but even one dose does make a difference. Other variables such as an attempt to seal off nursing homes and how effective is such close loop system. As we all knew, a significant percentage of deaths occur in nursing homes.

And then you have variables such as how many percentage of general population would get infected before the first wave is over. Most studies seem to indicate 40%-60% but China seems to think it would be higher than 60%. In addition, many elderly are living in the rural area that don't have significant exposed to other urban areas. In the past, US rural area usually would only be hit with a surge weeks or sometime even a month or two after a surge in urban area.

In the end of the day, there are too much variables at the moment to make a precise estimate. But there are no question that many deaths would occur.

Did you really assume I thought they were in the EU? Even people living under a rock don't think that. They're both European countries, which is what I meant by using the / symbol. It means the same thing as "or". Ask people in Russia or Ukraine if they think their countries are European. It's widely accepted that they're the 1st and 2nd largest countries in Europe by area respectively. Regardless, they're definitely not accepted as part of the West, along with the rest of Eastern Europe.

Don't assume I haven't been lurking and reading this thread silently for a long time. The recent posts and the immediate attacking of me just for questioning the credibility of the current death figures clearly demonstrate that some users here have gotten delusional about what is possible with inactivated vaccines, the current vaccination rates + ICU capacity, and the slightly intrinsically milder variant. They really seem to believe just based on anecdotes from their close circles that very few deaths are occurring and so they readily accept the government's reported deaths while bashing Western media as if 1 million deaths is simply a propaganda number that isn't within the realistic range of probability.

In other words, it seems the users here had mostly mentally prepared reasonable death estimates, but that was before the Western media circus and government underreporting made them feel the need to vent psychologically and backtrack on those estimates.

 

[Icmer]

Another, more recent study from JHU showing Omicron for the unvaccinated and uninfected is similar in severity to the ancestral strain. Yes, it is milder than Delta, but it did not descend from Delta so people cannot easily claim the virus evolved to be milder and that this is some inevitable law of viral evolution.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Although risk of severe disease or death for unvaccinated inpatients with Omicron was lower than Delta, it was similar to ancestral lineages. Severe outcomes were less common in vaccinated inpatients, with no difference between Delta and Omicron infections.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Well someone is not checking how their propaganda is contradicting itself. First they said huge protests by Chinese citizens ended China's restrictions. Now they're saying the streets in China's cities are ghost towns because no one is leaving their homes afraid to get Covid-19. I wonder if China can track anyone who protested and have them be last in line to get any health care because that's how it should be.

 

[Quickie]

Simply put, yeah there's a strong divide in opinion. Many here feel zero Covid was done away because it was no longer sustainable. Others here are adamant on their beliefs the protests were engendered by the CIA, so they don't want to accept a narrative where the CIA won in getting China to abandon its policy. Or simply put, they can't imagine the CPC making this big of mistake, so they come up with all these conspiracies about how this was always pre-planned or that Xi Jinping is channeling his inner Cao Cao, and letting the protesters take the fall for the rise in deaths.

What's done is done, I too think its pointless to continue talking about all the "reasons" why zero Covid was abandoned or whether it should have been to begin with. Instead, we should focus on cutting through the Western media bs about 10,000 Chinese dying a day, and monitor the situation through anecdotes from those who have contacts in China and also through local media. I am still of the opinion things will peak soon and even the border with Hong Kong can be reopened in the January-February time frame, based on what I have heard.

About the anecdotes, 3 regular guests (2 of them were themselves infected and recovered) on this CGTN program were talking about "most people they know have got infected, some with mild symptoms or flu-like symptoms for a number of days, some asymptomatic.

Even Dr. John's contacts in China, according to him, were saying the above same thing. So nothing of those Western MSM ridiculous speculated daily fatality numbers for China.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!