Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[tygyg1111]

Interesting if true, I can see why they would intentionally suppress that news.

however Campbell isn’t a doctor he is retired nurse who worked in emergency department. I think he spent time in India too so he sometimes uses studies from India. I mean it’s not a bad thing as long as the evidence is strong but I feel he can be biased against China and also tend to hype up some small studies just to make his point.

Biggest red flag

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

Anyone believes the rumours China will open up after this flu season? Like in March 2023?

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

Anyone believes the rumours China will open up after this flu season? Like in March 2023?

The rumors are based on unconfirmed social media posts, so I wouldn’t even trust them. Plus, the health authorities reiterated China’s adherence to zero-Covid as mentioned in this article:

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Finally, if I remember correctly, an official several months ago explained how China needs more time to develop successful drugs and more robust vaccines prior to opening up (the Western drugs are overhyped and ineffective, so I do not count them as successful). So, unless you plan to stay for a while in China, I wouldn’t count on them opening up.

 

[supercat]

I don't know if U.K. had 2 exceptionally bad months in April and May this year or what. What can be sure is that it was unlikely that more than 70% of the population could have received 3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine by the end of May.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587521616346423296

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[NiuBiDaRen]

The rumors are based on unconfirmed social media posts, so I wouldn’t even trust them. Plus, the health authorities reiterated China’s adherence to zero-Covid as mentioned in this article:

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Finally, if I remember correctly, an official several months ago explained how China needs more time to develop successful drugs and more robust vaccines prior to opening up (the Western drugs are overhyped and ineffective, so I do not count them as successful). So, unless you plan to stay for a while in China, I wouldn’t count on them opening up.

"We expect Beijing to maintain its zero-COVID strategy at least until March 2023," according to Nomura.

I talked to my friend who was going back to China who said the economic pressure would be too much to maintain zero COVID for too long. I wonder how the rumours of a March re-opening originated. I would love to trace the origins of the leaker. I wonder if they are looking at a dynamic COVID policy a few months from now.

Here in Singapore, a lot of rich mainland Chinese are trying to move in here. But really it's not the flight of rich Chinese, but the pressure on SMEs which should be the main concern. A rising Chinese middle class is predicated on a strong SME sector, which just isn't growing right now.

While the Politburo may not directly address the issue, language around Zero Covid and the relationship with economic growth will be closely scrutinized.

officials have been downplaying this year’s goal of around 5.5% since it became unattainable. It’s clear this year’s target will be missed by a wide margin - the the first time that’s happened since the government began setting them in the early 1990s.

Just like how 5.5% is an official goal, COVID zero is an official goal. But more important is how often officials make pronouncements about the official policy. We'll have to watch the frequency of the pronouncements. If they stop harping about COVID zero even though its an enshrined policy, then that's a telling sign.

The last economy-themed Politburo meeting in July stressed the need to look at virus prevention and economic growth “from a political point of view”. Although the politburo didn’t elaborate on what that meant, the phrase implies that in addition to being a public health issue, Covid control should be considered from the political angle as well, including how its handling might affect social stability or reflect on the Communist Party and China’s system of governance.

As my China friend told me, if China decides to go dynamic COVID control, then it will do so by issuing a lot of statements about 'the need to jumpstart the economy' or to 'safeguard mental health'. Which will be a cryptic signal it's going to open up.

I think right now a lot of ordinary folks are starting to be a bit resentful of three full years of psychological and economic stress, and ordinary folks' sentiment is what the Chinese government watches out for the most.

I would love to see what happens by the middle of 2023.

 

[T-U-P]

Anyone believes the rumours China will open up after this flu season? Like in March 2023?

They will need a combination of scientific breakthrough and expert expectation management for the population for this to happen without turning into a disaster. By that I mean in best case scenario:

1. Have a Omicron-specific vaccine with at least 6 months of protection time
2. Force at least 80% of the population to take the vaccine within a 1~2 months period
3. Downplay impact of Omicron and only admit those with high fevers into hospitals - stay home if you got regular flu symptoms
4. Stop talking about it in media - no more daily stat updates

I think #1 and #2 are still the most important part of this re-opening puzzle, if the government is still basing their decision on science rather than politics. Skipping #1 and 2 and going straight for #3 and 4 is not going to save their GDP this year nor the next.

 

[Biscuits]

Anyone believes the rumours China will open up after this flu season? Like in March 2023?

Probably depends on how effective inhaled vaccine + eventual booster shots are.

But quite possible imho. They now have good experience on how to treat covid and a fairly effective vaccine, at least compared to most others.

 

[ficker22]

Shit happens, better than 1.000.000 excess deaths in 2 years

 

[xlitter]

Your message is too late! The government has issued a detailed announcement explaining what happened, and the description is accurate to the minute!

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[Abominable]

According to the data this YouTube but a licensed Doctor Campbell from the U.K. is saying that the number of excess deaths have thus far exceeded what happened from the height of Covid-19? And the media seem intentionally disinterested in bringing this news to the public, perhaps it's due to a potential bad publicity to the vaccines.

There are more deaths now than even during the peak of the pandemic, but it is not necessarily only doing to vaccine adverse reactions, although I agree it plays a part.

A lot of the excess deaths is down to the breakdown of social services and healthcare. As the UK becomes poorer and poorer it becomes more and more difficult to maintain current levels of HDI indicators. This is exacerbated by the worsening demographics - there are more and more older people and fewer younger people.

So even though medical technology and drugs improve, it'll be available to fewer and fewer people.

It was a trend that existed before COVID and has only been worsened by it. Before the pandemic the UK's infant mortality rate actually started to increase for the first time in decades, life expectancy also started dropping.