Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[vesicles]

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This is new and short JAMA (journal of American medical association) study done by a Singapore hospital. They tested the entire environment of 3 isolated COVID-19 patients during the entire course of their stay at the hospital. They found that most of the furniture and all parts of the isolation rooms have been tested positive for the virus.

However, the air in the isolation rooms has been tested negative. Almost all the protective gear of the physicians have been tested negative, except a shoe of a physician.

This clearly shows the importance of washing your hands thoroughly. This also shows that wearing a mask doesn’t help you much since little viral particles have been found in the air. On the other hand, with a very uncomfortable mask on your face, you will want to mess with your mask and advertently touching your face, scratching your nose and eyes with your hands. With every object surrounding the patients covered with viral particles, your hands will be the most dirtiest. Wash your hands.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Good news
Vaccine enter clinical trial

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0COVID-19 vaccine in rapid development
By ZOU SHUO | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2020-03-06 17:09

Some vaccines against the novel coronavirus may enter clinical trials or be put into emergency use in April, the National Health Commission said on Friday.

Zheng Zhongwei, an official at the commission, said there are currently eight institutions in China working on developing vaccines along five technical routes.

Many of them have entered animal trials, and the development progress for vaccines in China is similar or somewhat ahead of those in foreign countries, he said.

The reason for the rapid progress of vaccine research is all research institutions have worked together to accelerate research regardless of cost, Zheng said.

The country has set up special funds for the research, and has also made commitments to set up a future vaccine reserve mechanism, he said.

All research on vaccines is carried out according to relevant laws, standards and norms and the research institutions and experts have maintained communication with the World Health Organization, he said.

"Our goal is to make sure the vaccine against the novel coronavirus can be put into use as soon as possible, based on the premise of ensuring its safety and effectiveness."

 

[vesicles]

I completely agree with your analysis, but that isn't the point I'm making.

I'll give an example.

1. Skip the initial animal testing
2. Skip Phase 0 and Phase 1 human trials, the vaccine is a derivative of an existing vaccine which has passed previously.
3. Go straight into Phase 2 human trials with say 100 volunteers. Do this one properly, but there shouldn't be any issues.
4. Then go to Phase 3 human trials with 10000 volunteers. Again this one is done properly, and ensure it is really safe.

With this approach, you skip a lot of the initial testing.
Say it saves 3months of development time, which is worth 1million deaths around the world in the future.

So you accept a higher risk for the 100 volunteers in the Phase 2. But the additional risk is way less than 10 of those volunteers

So the life of each (well-compensated) volunteer is *worth* the life of 100000 people.

This can be a difficult truth for those who are too ideologically attached to the idea of individual rights versus collective good.

It’s not about human rights, but all about math and statistics. Each phase of the clinical trials has their unique purposes, including efficacy, bioavailability, toxicity etc. Skipping trials is never a good idea even for drugs. Vaccines have even stricter regulations.

I completely understand your sense of urgency. However, as I’ve said before, vaccines are designed to be given to the vast majority of the population, much larger than the population that will ever be infected by the virus. With such a wide base, any defect of the vaccine will be magnified many many folds. So if you are not careful, your vaccine will end up killing and hurting more people than any virus possibly can.

As someone who has gone through many natural disasters (I live in Houston and we have gigantic hurricanes once a year), I understand that, when panicked, people want to act. “We can’t sit around!” “We need to do something!” And many of them end up getting drown when attempting to escape...

Especially in times like this, we need to keep a clear head and calm down. Cutting corners is a bad bad idea. like I’ve said before, every phase of the clinical trials is designed for an exact purpose. Skipping trials means ignoring a key aspect of the vaccine that will mean life or death or quality of life for hundreds of thousands, or even millions of lives. If something like this happens, it will be pandemic X 10 or X100. Bad idea.

It is completely unrealistic to expect a vaccine to save us at this time. A vaccine is typically useful for later outbreaks of the same virus. Not the current one. Currently, the only effective option that we have is the good ole isolation and sanitation that have worked for the past millennium. Wash your hands, stay away the crowd and hope for the best. If you are younger than 50, it will be just like another flu even if you get infected. Older males with chronic conditions will have a harder time, with the death rate climbing fast with age.

 

[hydrogenpi]

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Daily coronavirus cases outside of China are now 18 TIMES higher than inside the worst-hit nation where the outbreak began as Beijing offers help by sending 250,000 face masks to Iran

• Beijing confirmed just 120 cases yesterday – the lowest toll since mid-January
• World Health Organization figures show 2,103 cases were recorded elsewhere
• Most of the new patients were struck down in Iran, South Korea and Italy
• Do you have a coronavirus story? Email [email protected]

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PUBLISHED: 09:26 GMT, 5 March 2020 | UPDATED: 13:17 GMT, 5 March 2020



The number of coronavirus cases being diagnosed outside of China each day is now 18 times higher than inside the hardest-hit nation.
Beijing confirmed just 120 new cases yesterday in the lowest daily toll since the crisis began to take hold in the middle of January.
World Health Organization figures show 2,103 patients were struck down outside of China, with most recorded in Iran, South Korea and Italy.
The escalating crisis, which has seen 96,000 people infected across the world, has changed course dramatically in the past two weeks.

Data shows the number of daily cases on February 19 – two weeks ago – was 17 times higher in China than the rest of the world combined.
As China's outbreak has dramatically slowed in the last week, Beijing has now started to help other nations battling outbreaks of their own.
Chinese health officials have already sent 250,000 face masks and 5,000 testing kits to Iran, which has recorded more than 3,500 cases and 107 deaths.

Beijing confirmed just 120 new cases yesterday in the lowest daily toll since the crisis began to take hold in the middle of January. World Health Organization figures show 2,103 patients were struck down outside of China, with most recorded in Iran, South Korea and Italy

With Iran being a regional and geopoliticial strategic implications to China, I hope they are doing more than just sending masks and PPE.

Maybe they are already doing it in secret but donations of plasma, antiviral meds, EMCO machines, how about helping them build temp hospitals etc... or chartered flights for top Iranian leaders infected by Covid to get state of the art treatment in China, etc...

If the strain in Iran is different than the Wuhan strain China should start working on a vaccine for this as well, seems like Iran strain is highest CFR by far, and they could benefit the most by fast experimentation, whats more important than safety and human rights is being alive and life itself.

 

[Air Force Brat]

It’s not about human rights, but all about math and statistics. Each phase of the clinical trials has their unique purposes, including efficacy, bioavailability, toxicity etc. Skipping trials is never a good idea even for drugs. Vaccines have even stricter regulations.

I completely understand your sense of urgency. However, as I’ve said before, vaccines are designed to be given to the vast majority of the population, much larger than the population that will ever be infected by the virus. With such a wide base, any defect of the vaccine will be magnified many many folds. So if you are not careful, your vaccine will end up killing and hurting more people than any virus possibly can.

As someone who has gone through many natural disasters (I live in Houston and we have gigantic hurricanes once a year), I understand that, when panicked, people want to act. “We can’t sit around!” “We need to do something!” And many of them end up getting drown when attempting to escape...

Especially in times like this, we need to keep a clear head and calm down. Cutting corners is a bad bad idea. like I’ve said before, every phase of the clinical trials is designed for an exact purpose. Skipping trials means ignoring a key aspect of the vaccine that will mean life or death or quality of life for hundreds of thousands, or even millions of lives. If something like this happens, it will be pandemic X 10 or X100. Bad idea.

It is completely unrealistic to expect a vaccine to save us at this time. A vaccine is typically useful for later outbreaks of the same virus. Not the current one. Currently, the only effective option that we have is the good ole isolation and sanitation that have worked for the past millennium. Wash your hands, stay away the crowd and hope for the best. If you are younger than 50, it will be just like another flu. Older males with chronic conditions will have a harder time, with the death rate climbing fast with age.

and once again, outstanding post vesicles, and thanks for the best insight yet into prevention..... and the best posts yet on the corona virus thread!

 

[vesicles]

And apparently there are now 6 prospective vaccines being tested in China?

Coming up with a vaccine is easy. The time-consuming part is the actual clinical trial, which may take many years. Many side effects of a vaccine may come out months after the injection. Some of them very severe. Vaccines are something that simply cannot be rushed. I strongly hope the Chinese doctors stay calm and don’t act on impulses and/or bend to political and social pressures to rush their vaccines. Otherwise, we will have another vaccine pandemic waiting for us a few months later... this one will be much worse than any Coronavirus can inflict.

 

[solarz]

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This is new and short JAMA (journal of American medical association) study done by a Singapore hospital. They tested the entire environment of 3 isolated COVID-19 patients during the entire course of their stay at the hospital. They found that most of the furniture and all parts of the isolation rooms have been tested positive for the virus.

However, the air in the isolation rooms has been tested negative. Almost all the protective gear of the physicians have been tested negative, except a shoe of a physician.

This clearly shows the importance of washing your hands thoroughly. This also shows that wearing a mask doesn’t help you much since little viral particles have been found in the air. On the other hand, with a very uncomfortable mask on your face, you will want to mess with your mask and advertently touching your face, scratching your nose and eyes with your hands. With every object surrounding the patients covered with viral particles, your hands will be the most dirtiest. Wash your hands.

The study describes the isolation room as having 12 air exchanges per hour, which is once every 5 minutes. This is a high rate of air exchange that you will not find in common crowded situations such as public transit, offices, and classrooms.

In any case, masks are not meant to protect you from viruses lingering in the air. It's meant to protect you from droplets when you need to be in close contact with someone.

When you're riding the subway in New York, and the guy in front of you sneezes, you'd better hope you have a mask on...

 

[vesicles]

The study describes the isolation room as having 12 air exchanges per hour, which is once every 5 minutes. This is a high rate of air exchange that you will not find in common crowded situations such as public transit, offices, and classrooms.

In any case, masks are not meant to protect you from viruses lingering in the air. It's meant to protect you from droplets when you need to be in close contact with someone.

When you're riding the subway in New York, and the guy in front of you sneezes, you'd better hope you have a mask on...

Agreed.

Well, a good thing about Texas is that our public transportation system sucks big time. So we end up spending very little time trapped in subways or buses... To be honest, I feel very weird every time when I get on a subway or a bus when I go to another city. I’m not used to having so many people so close to me...

 

[OppositeDay]

When you're riding the subway in New York, and the guy in front of you sneezes, you'd better hope you have a mask on...

Apparently the Shanghai metro are using a real-time monitoring system to cap the number of passengers in the system. Passengers are also required to use an app to scan a QR code when they board the train so the system knows which car they've boarded. If another passenger later tests positive, the authorities can easily track who were in the same car and quarantine them.

 

[solarz]

Agreed.

Well, a good thing about Texas is that our public transportation system sucks big time. So we end up spending very little time trapped in subways or buses... To be honest, I feel very weird every time when I get on a subway or a bus when I go to another city. I’m not used to having so many people so close to me...

Yup, that's the good thing about living in a low population density place.

One of the reasons the virus spread so quickly and so widely in China was because of its efficient public transportation system. It was reported that 5 million people had left Wuhan before the quarantine. I didn't believe that number at first, as it represented twice as many people as the entire population of Toronto! It's simply an astounding number of people moving around.

Most of the US has low population density, however, having been to New York a few times, I think the virus is going to be spread very, very widely there.