Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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solarz
Brigadier
Capitalism!
CIA/NSA will just enter China, unleash some mice/rats with SAR-CoV-2, and start new COVID outbreaks everywhere. An effortless anti-China containment strategy more effective than TPP or Pivot to Asia or any tariffs Trump can dream of. If you are serious about 'zero-COVID', you should ban all foreigners until you are willing to let it rip. You can't have your cake and eat it.
That's bio warfare which means nuclear war. I don't think the US is maniac enough to risk a nuclear war just to disrupt China's COVID policy. Every single country in the world would interpret such a thing as WMD use on its civilians, which it is.
Hotels can be used which have more than enough capacity. But I think you are generally right on this. Allowing non-essential travel may be wrong at this point. But for example, students should be let in.
The thing about bio warfare is if you spread it covertly, it's hard to tell who did it, that's why they are researching bio-warfare in the first place, to have the capability of covertly destroying countries. However, this type of warfare runs a high risk of self-owning yourself by infecting your own population, and from how the US handle covid, you can see they are very vulnerable to this type of warfare.
The idea of releasing a covid infected rat/mice to spread covid is an extremely bad idea, those rat might ended up travelling back to their own country by hiding in transport boats and other vehicles. If they tried and China wanted to return the favor, they could ship the rats to countries that share a land border with US and with poor custom control like Mexico, then pass those rats through the border control with tactics the drug cartel used.
brb... going to get some pet rats
On a more serious note, how do the members here see China moving past the 'need for lockdown' stage and executing a full opening up?
If/when 3x shot mass vaccination is achieved for all sectors of the population, what controls are there to give reliable data on projected death rate post vaccination, before restrictions are fully lifted? A staged lifting of restrictions, based on an 'observe and react' approach?
Secondly, are we likely to see a return to lockdown measures if/when a new strain emerges that existing vaccines do not trigger protection against?
If/when 3x shot mass vaccination is achieved for all sectors of the population, what controls are there to give reliable data on projected death rate post vaccination, before restrictions are fully lifted? A staged lifting of restrictions, based on an 'observe and react' approach?
Secondly, are we likely to see a return to lockdown measures if/when a new strain emerges that existing vaccines do not trigger protection against?
I think China will "fully open up" if these conditions are met
1. Treatment for covid and long covid is fully established, mass produced and readily available for everyone (partially achieved for covid, but not yet for long covid)
2. The transmission rate of covid have been significantly reduced that healthcare won't be overwhelmed and death rate is similar to the common flu (This has not been achieved, and can be subjected to change with newer variants)
3. Testing capacity, hospital beds, logistics and isolation room is scaled up enough to handle massive amount of covid cases and isolate massive amount of people (This is being built up currently)
For the foreseeable future, I think they'll try to apply Shenzhen's model to all the cities, by mass testing, putting restrictions on those without a negative test certificate and building capacity for isolation. If Shenzhen's success can be replicated, we'll see them stop doing economically crippling lockdown and instead coerce everyone to swabbing their nose and mouths every few days, and sending infected people in buses to isolation camp to keep transmission low.
"Zero covid" is no longer possible, they are going for "Dynamic clearing" now, which I think meant slowing the spread and lowering the amount of people that will get infected each wave. If this strategy doesn't work, they'll just go back to locking down again, but they would likely do better than in Shanghai, because of the capacity they built up and knowing what policies work or not.