Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
getready said:
The danger of not treating this outbreak seriously in China and letting it go out of control is increasing hospitalization and deaths among the elderly. Even though China has by most country standard, a high percentage of its population vaccinated, something like 88%. However we know the elderly is very vulnerable, plus immunity wanes after second shot quite dramatically against omicron. China also does not have mandatory vaccine policy.

So The underlying problem is China massive population that even a small percentage that's either vulnerable or unvaccinated or elderly means alot of people getting wrecked and the hospitals to be overrun if the virus is allowed to let loose freely that western media is dying for China to do aka live with covid. Just 1 percent of 1.3b is already 13m people.
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Taking into account there are ~10000 daily infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) and not a single death, could be that the death rate of this variant is about between 1/4000-1/10000, closer to South Korea, if 70% percent of the population get infected the death toll of the wave could be in the 100,000-300,000 deaths, still unacceptable. They will have to ramp up censorship to the maximum to avoid panic and avoid fueling the crappy Western mainstream media narrative were 400 deaths dialy is South Korea is seem as a "victory".
 
Coalescence

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
yongpengsuen said:
It's pretty cool. I went to the mall without mask on and probably caught it yesterday. Felt a little crummy yesterday. Perfectly fine today.
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Might not be Covid, but still stay safe. Maybe take some vitamins, and try to stay out of crowded areas/not well ventilated areas.
 
D

Dolcevita

Major
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
tokenanalyst said:
Taking into account there are ~10000 daily infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) and not a single death, could be that the death rate of this variant is about between 1/4000-1/10000, closer to South Korea, if 70% percent of the population get infected the death toll of the wave could be in the 100,000-300,000 deaths, still unacceptable.
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For reference, Chinese gov't researchers have published scientific articles report that the Chinese influenza-associated all-cause mortality rates were 14.33 per 100,000 across all age groups.

If China has 1,400,000,000 population, then this translates to annual influenza-associated deaths of 200,620 people every year in China.

Source:
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(Chinese gov't researcher)

This is reasonable, because USA in comparison has 320,000,000 population, with an annual influenza death of
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people every year, and China has 4.3X the population of USA. The numbers line up.
 
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T

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
For reference, Chinese gov't researchers have published scientific articles report that the Chinese influenza-associated all-cause mortality rates were 14.33 per 100,000 across all age groups.

If China has 1,400,000,000 population, then this translates to annual influenza-associated deaths of 200,620 people every year in China.

Source:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(Chinese gov't researcher)

This is reasonable, because USA in comparison has 320,000,000 population, with an annual influenza death of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
people every year, and China has 4.3X the population of USA. The numbers line up.
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Well, with so many asymptomatic patients, this variant is as contagious as measles with an R0 of almost 10-12, while influenza has an R0 of 2, so we are talking about a few months, not a year. This variant could infect 50% to 70% of all of China in just a few months before the wave dies down, that's overwhelming.
 
T

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
I am maybe misinterpreting this.
Do they are saying that Sweden deliberate tried to use Covid as a way to get rid of their elderly like in the movie MidSommar?
Or they thought that their healthcare system was going to be so overwhelmed that they didn't even wanted to take chances with people that where more likely to die?
 
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