It isn't a new approach. Shanghai has employed the precision method for sometime now. Don't have a problem with them continuing this approach to contain Omicron. However, as more and more places got lock down, it just doesn't look like a precision approach anymore.
Maybe we have different expectations on how precise the precision method should be. Because there is no magic way to detect the infected. Any method has to be reactive and iterative. Being precise is therefore relative.
IIUC, the Shanghai method is a "parallized" version of the same methodology since Wuhan - test, trace, isolate then repeat. With this method, the working set consists of multiple small areas and tries to make them smaller in subsequent iterations. In the "traditional" approach, we have seen that the working set is a single area that is much larger to begin with, usually by a complete city district and can increase indiscriminately to the whole city eventually.
If the Shanghai approach is dubbed as a "precision method", we might call the traditional approach "brutal force". But this is all my educated guess based on the publicly available info.
In their daily press briefing, the local health authority reports how many new cases were found in "isolated populace (闭环隔离管控人员)" and how many were from the "risky populace (风险人群)". If the latter is getting smaller proportional to the former, the public health staff are closing in on the spreads. The turning point will be when the latter stops increasing.
Anyway, I still think that it's too early to call it failing. A new approach will need refining in practice. Omicron is also new. To me the criteria are: 1. no hospital capacity crunch; 2. the economic impact is decisively smaller. Now I think these are actually quite a high bar to reach. We will see.
In addition, by reporting most cases as asymptomatic, Shanghai has avoided being designated as a high risk area which is unfair to other provinces.
If Shanghai is hiding large number of cases as asymptomatic, it is a serious offense that must be stopped and punished. Or is this just a speculation by the netizens?
Even if their numbers are dubious comparing to the numbers of other cities, to give them the benefit of the doubt, could it be that Shanghai has been reporting its mild cases as asymptomatic? Because, under the new Covid guidance, asymptomatic and mild cases are treated the same and do not need to be hospitalized. But even in this case, the city should have clarified.
Anyway, unless there is credible source to prove otherwise, I choose to trust the published data for the moment. At the same time, yeah I am curious, too, about why Shanghai has so few symptomatic cases among so many infected.
I have no vested interest in defending the city. But I think it is not fair to talk about fairness without considering the pressure on Shanghai and its residents, not only in this Omicron wave but also since the beginning of the pandemic.
IIRC, Shanghai was the last major international traffic hub in mainland that fell victim to the virus. Guangzhou, Qingdao, Tianjin, Dalian, Xi'an and Zhengzhou all had outbreaks caused by imported cases before Shanghai.
Counting the daily imported cases released by NHC, we can see that the Shanghai has been under constant pressure. But it had not had major outbreak and spillover until this March. It cannot be just pure luck. This speaks in volume for how long Shanghai successfully protected the inland for its portion.
While the cities that have received the spillover cases from Shanghai might be justified to call out its blunder in this wave, we should not forget that the residents in Shanghai are bearing the burden when the city is trying to keep its business centers, factories and traffic hubs open, not only for Shanghai itself but also for all other cities that rely on Shanghai to keep their economy running.
I understand why they are doing it. However, Shenzhen had the same approach for over 2 months. It was unable to contain Omicron. Shenzhen was forced to give up and did a 7 days lock down to contain the virus. Shanghai has over 2000 cases per day now. It is at the breaking point of both medical resources and manpower to contain the virus.
Most of the 2000 cases are asymptomatic that do not need much care though. They do not actually add as much burden as the number sounds. Even if they were reported as symptomatic, they would be mild and treated same as asymptomatic. I don't believe Shanghai has the guts to leave moderate or severer cases untreated in makeshift facilities.
I am not familiar with Shenzhen and haven't paid as much attention to it. Too bad it didn't work out for them.
But if Shanghai still has the capacity, why stop the experiment half way? Sure the numbers have been increasing but the growth are not exponential meaning the spreads are being controlled. Will the spreads have gone out of control tomorrow? I think it is unlikely.
I would dispute that keeping industrial parks open is doable even with lock down. Many cities keep industrial parks open as long as workers are confined to their plants and warehouses and tested regular until the lock down is lifted.
If this is what Shanghai is doing, then sure it is meaningless. But from what I heard, they are trying to only lock down for 48 hours unless there are new cases found within the lockdown scope.
