You mean learning about transpanency on informations of COVID-19 from the US government? Any US government official wanting to express opinions or expose informations on COVID-19 must have their infomations filtered and approved by politicians in the Whitehouse before they can tell the public. Now who is learning from who?
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
- Thread starter localizer
- Start date
All of yesterday's 7 new cases in Zhejiang province were imported from Italy.
This definitely marked a new phase in China's outbreak control efforts. Maybe China should consider evacuating at risk overseas citizens (elderly people in outbreak zones). But even China cannot bring back and quarantine all Chinese citizens in outbreak zones (which will only grow larger and larger).
Seriously, Chinese citizens overseas who 1) are long-time residents of their host country and 2) are not part of the high risk demographics should just stay where they are. Please don't be the gay who pays tax to a foreign government then flies back to China and uses precious public resources in a national emergency. That's disgraceful.
This definitely marked a new phase in China's outbreak control efforts. Maybe China should consider evacuating at risk overseas citizens (elderly people in outbreak zones). But even China cannot bring back and quarantine all Chinese citizens in outbreak zones (which will only grow larger and larger).
Seriously, Chinese citizens overseas who 1) are long-time residents of their host country and 2) are not part of the high risk demographics should just stay where they are. Please don't be the gay who pays tax to a foreign government then flies back to China and uses precious public resources in a national emergency. That's disgraceful.
One chinese university student has become the latest person infected by COVID-19. He came to Australia via Dubai where he spend at least 14 days to quarintine himself following regulations. Arrivaling in Australia, he had no symptoms but got sick two days later and was confirmed to be COVID-19. Problem is, did he got the virus while in Dubai or in China which means the incubation period can be more than 14days? Checking temperature at Airports and 14 days quarantine period are in doubt now.
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Probably the latter. Although there are cases of people with no symptoms for even longer durations (record is like 27 days) the law of averages probably means that he caught the disease much later.
Wow! So my earlier post elicited a lot of responses. Can't reply to all, but I want to stress
1) No I'm not comparing China to the United States. I'm pretty sure that Zhong Nanshan doesn't have to clear his script with Li Keqiang before talking to the media, so China is better than the U.S. this way. The American CDC did publish the number of cases tested until it's stopped today, which China never did. But then the Americans don't publish the number of close contacts they traced.
2) China has been fairly transparent. A lot more transparent than they received credit for. There are so many people who loves to trash China for not being transparent but cannot even read Chinese (seriously?).
However,
3) China can easily be more transparent. For example, the information a lot of scientists and doctors really really want is the result from a randomized serological study in Wuhan to estimate the attack rate there. China is producing 350K (!) antibody test kits per day
So there must be massive serological studies underway. How are they designed? When can we expect results?
Also, what is the latest epi curve? We know that the Chinese CDC has a sophicated computer-based case tracking system which should be able to generate the epi curve on the fly. Why not give us daily updates?
Last, consider the example of the flu surveillance system from Guangzhou. The data gathered was very reassuring, but we wouldn't even know they had the data if WHO hadn't sent an expert team there. Seriously, you are doing a lot of very hard work, what's the point of not letting the public know about it? All levels of the Chinese government need to learn to communicate with the public instead of only communicate to their superiors. The easist way to make them coomunicate is to require them to communicate unless there are good reasons not to.
1) No I'm not comparing China to the United States. I'm pretty sure that Zhong Nanshan doesn't have to clear his script with Li Keqiang before talking to the media, so China is better than the U.S. this way. The American CDC did publish the number of cases tested until it's stopped today, which China never did. But then the Americans don't publish the number of close contacts they traced.
2) China has been fairly transparent. A lot more transparent than they received credit for. There are so many people who loves to trash China for not being transparent but cannot even read Chinese (seriously?).
However,
3) China can easily be more transparent. For example, the information a lot of scientists and doctors really really want is the result from a randomized serological study in Wuhan to estimate the attack rate there. China is producing 350K (!) antibody test kits per day
So there must be massive serological studies underway. How are they designed? When can we expect results?
Also, what is the latest epi curve? We know that the Chinese CDC has a sophicated computer-based case tracking system which should be able to generate the epi curve on the fly. Why not give us daily updates?
Last, consider the example of the flu surveillance system from Guangzhou. The data gathered was very reassuring, but we wouldn't even know they had the data if WHO hadn't sent an expert team there. Seriously, you are doing a lot of very hard work, what's the point of not letting the public know about it? All levels of the Chinese government need to learn to communicate with the public instead of only communicate to their superiors. The easist way to make them coomunicate is to require them to communicate unless there are good reasons not to.
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Two things, first one i mentioned already, a lot of efforts are needed to gather, consolidate and cleanse data.
The second one is releasing data is never as simple as posting a csv file on a website. An authoritative source will never release data without carefully verify it first, if it wants to remain an authoritative source. No sure if effort is better spend it now or later when the epidemic is over.
The second one is releasing data is never as simple as posting a csv file on a website. An authoritative source will never release data without carefully verify it first, if it wants to remain an authoritative source. No sure if effort is better spend it now or later when the epidemic is over.
Evidence-based decision-making requires frequently updated and high quality data. I'm sure the Chinese decision-makers are getting these. I have too much confidence in the Chinese government to believe otherwise.
Even in the worst case they can always release with a "preliminary data" warning.
The gloaters here are getting miserable and disappointed that they cannot gloat at misery of China no more. I suggest that those gloaters spend their time in preparing themselves as their own Western countries seemed incapable of handling the crisis of covid19. Such as UK planning to turn Hyde Park into mortuary instead of planning more beds and making new hospitals to cope with increasing demands. And USA not even having enough test kits and what else lacking. Money they funded Hong Kong rioters and petrol bombs throwing hooligans can best be used to fight covid19 on their own soil.Ah yes, another brainwashed know it all backseat driver.
How did your ‘transparency’ and ‘responsible’ can-do-no-wrong America contain the 2009 American Swine Flu pandemic again?
What are the ‘transparent’ American figures on how many people attended fever clinics in America? Oh wait, there are no fever clinics in America because the American government is too responsible to set them up because that would be a waste of money since democracy and transparency is all you need to combat this virus.
China is one of the few governments who has actually taken any real responsibility in dealing with Corvid19 head on.
The measures western governments have taken to combat the spread of the virus has been a farcical joke from the start.
America and similar western governments were too busy trying to maximise damage to China while scoring cheap political points back home with entry bans on Chinese nationals while not even bothering to check their own nationals returning from infected zones; and also deliberately breaking quarantine to fly back their own nationals from the most dangerous infection zones and not even giving the drivers of the buses bringing them to the quarantine site any protective equipment.
The initial western response was all but daring the Virus to reach them.
Now that the virus has broken out in the west, the Americans are literally giving mixed messages in the very same interview; the British are just telling everyone to wash their hands and the western media has done a dramatic tone shift from openly salivating on how damaging this outbreak would be on China to obsessively comparing it to the common flu as prep work to try and downplay the fallout when they fail to contain it like China managed.
China has been providing free healthcare to all those infected with Corvid19, and supplying free face masks to all citizens. Come back when your ‘responsible’ western governments does anything like that instead of trying to shift responsibility to individuals and blaming foreigners for their own ineptitude.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
The most urgent task is to save life and contain the spread of the virus . They have provided briefing every day as to the status of the epidemic that is more than enough for the average people.
Effort must be concentrated toward saving life and lighten the people suffering anything else is superfluous
Study can wait until this scourge is over over transparency is unnecessary
here China used AI to model and predict the outbreak
Imagine the chaos that would have ensued had the CCP acted a week slower....
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A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in midMarch and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction.
If implementation of interventions were delayed by five days, the initial increase in the proportion of exposed cases would have resulted in an exponential increase in infected cases, peaking on February 21 and March 17. There would still be >30,000 active cases predicted at the end of April, by which time there would have been 166,930 cases.
Had interventions been implemented five days earlier, the epidemic would have peaked by February 11 with 8,031 cases and a final epidemic size of 15,965 cases should have been expected