Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think they need mRNA vaccines per se. I suspect once the virus mutates to a less severe strain, china can open up. It's not like mRNA vaccines are a panacea for COVID. Like how H1N1 turned into the common flu as did the Spanish flu. Usually issues a couple years. I suspect china is biding their time, waiting for other countries to see the long term effects and severity of omicron before determining that the severity has run its course. Afterward do gradual opening. Usually better to open in the summer then fall or winter.
Its ironic but West's shambolic response towards Omicron might help them in the end

Because studies have shown that if you are vaccinated and still get infected with Omicron, you get "super" protection with a very strong immune protection against covid.

So by letting (incompetence actually but whatever..) Omicron infect everyone it allows them to fully open after the first wave pass. That's why I am saying that by February they would be open. By that time, a big (if not all) portion of their population would have super-protection, and then they would also have the booster shot.

I am bookmarking my post for predictions. By February the West will be fully open
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
Its ironic but West's shambolic response towards Omicron might help them in the end

Because studies have shown that if you are vaccinated and still get infected with Omicron, you get "super" protection with a very strong immune protection against covid.

So by letting (incompetence actually but whatever..) Omicron infect everyone it allows them to fully open after the first wave pass. That's why I am saying that by February they would be open. By that time, a big (if not all) portion of their population would have super-protection, and then they would also have the booster shot.

I am bookmarking my post for predictions. By February the West will be fully open
If omicron turns out to be mild, then china can likely open slowly as well but probably in summertime if I were to guess
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
If omicron turns out to be mild, then china can likely open slowly as well but probably in summertime if I were to guess
Business analysts from Bloomberg think it will happen in fall (which I agree with). After all, a covid reopening is a big change from the "zero-covid" strategy which will need time to make the public change its attitude towards accepting covid cases as a new normal
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
If omicron turns out to be mild, then china can likely open slowly as well but probably in summertime if I were to guess
It ultimately comes down to the rate in which vaccinated and non vaccinated people get long haul though. Compared to that of the flu, the chances of long haul damage from Covid is much higher. Long haul damage can impair ones cognitive and physical abilities and that can allow one to qualify for disability checks. If a huge chunk of people are disabled, the West’s economies will be crippled for a while and maybe on their way to a financial crisis. If I were a betting man, I bet that’s what is driving China’s decision to hold off opening up.

We don’t know if Omicron’s long haul Covid damage rate is drastically lower than that of the other variants, so I’d guess either by the end of 2022’s Q1, we will have an extremely good and comprehensive picture of that situation. If the rate of long haul damage is equivalent to that of the flu, the West will most likely open up.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
It ultimately comes down to the rate in which vaccinated and non vaccinated people get long haul though. Compared to that of the flu, the chances of long haul damage from Covid is much higher. Long haul damage can impair ones cognitive and physical abilities and that can allow one to qualify for disability checks. If a huge chunk of people are disabled, the West’s economies will be crippled for a while and maybe on their way to a financial crisis. If I were a betting man, I bet that’s what is driving China’s decision to hold off opening up.

We don’t know if Omicron’s long haul Covid damage rate is drastically lower than that of the other variants, so I’d guess either by the end of 2022’s Q1, we will have an extremely good and comprehensive picture of that situation. If the rate of long haul damage is equivalent to that of the flu, the West will most likely open up.
Let the west take the experiment then china can decide based on what happens
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Let the west take the experiment then china can decide based on what happens
Yep. Can afford to wait some extra months to see if their experiment is a success.
After all, what happens if suddenly a new more lethal variant appears but also keeping Omicron's high transmissibility...

They can be the lab rat
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
How effective are Chinese vaccines against omicron? Do you have the stats? Very few Chinese have antibodies due to very low number of cases.
You can just get boosted to increase antibody count. Antibody count only really matters if you want to prevent infection. Both mRNA and inactivated have waning antibody count over time, and both have reduced antibody efficacy against new variants. However, both mRNA and inactivated have strong T-cell memory response (long-term memory response), which helps prevent hospitalization and death.

So boosting antibody count is important for elderly, immunocompromised, or comorbid who really want to prevent infection. Personally, I think you don't necessarily need a booster per se if you are young and healthy, and have fully vaccinated (mRNA or inactivated) because your T-cell memory response will prevent severe disease and death.
China should be able to open, if they can get their local mRNA vaccines. How good are local Chinese vaccines in preparing the immune system for producing T-cells?
I haven't seen the data for Omnicron, but for the Delta Variant, the local Inactivated Chinese vaccines produce strong T-cell memory response, which is why protection against hospitalization and death is still high (+80%) despite it's waning antibody-specific response against infection (sharply reduced, as with mRNA vaccines)
I don't think they need mRNA vaccines per se. I suspect once the virus mutates to a less severe strain, china can open up. It's not like mRNA vaccines are a panacea for COVID. Like how H1N1 turned into the common flu as did the Spanish flu. Usually issues a couple years. I suspect china is biding their time, waiting for other countries to see the long term effects and severity of omicron before determining that the severity has run its course. Afterward do gradual opening. Usually better to open in the summer then fall or winter.

I think China will time the ending of 'zero COVID' strategy with a) arrival of local anti-viral pills, and b) arrival of local mRNA boosters. I agree, mRNA will not end the pandemic (actually, the virus will become endemic, impossible to eradicate), but it's more like a convenient propaganda tool to declare victory of Chinese ingenuity/scientist and convenient excuse to tell the population to return to normalcy. It's as much "psychological" to convince the population to switch to normalcy due to arrive of new medicines (anti-viral pills) and 2nd-gen mRNA boosters.
 
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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
At the very beginning of the pandemic, the West's weakness was it's nonchalant careless attitude, downplaying the risks and dismissing it as a hoax, very weak response. On the opposite side of the spectrum, at the very beginning, the Chinese strength was it took an extremely cautious and serious at the very beginning of pandemic, with prompt and swift actions and a "whole of society" approach.

However, Western weakness can be a strength when it comes to returning to normalcy. And Chinese strength can turn into a weakness if not properly managed. I think Chinese can "psychologically" prime the domestic population to reduce the fear of COVID by getting anti-viral pills and local mRNA boosters available as soon as possible. It's as much of a "psychological" war as it is against a biological enemy. The reality is the virus is impossible to eradicate and will be endemic forever just like the H1N1 became endemic, and Chinese gov't needs to psychologically influence it's population to accept that fact sooner or later. China can afford to wait though.
 

PeoplesPoster

Junior Member
Remember when Taiwan was complaining loudly to the world that China was denying them the Biontech vaccine? Well now that they got their round of PR points out of it they are happy to get vacinnes from China. This losses me off as almost the entire production is going to these ungrateful fucks while the mai land gets none.

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LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Remember when Taiwan was complaining loudly to the world that China was denying them the Biontech vaccine? Well now that they got their round of PR points out of it they are happy to get vacinnes from China. This losses me off as almost the entire production is going to these ungrateful fucks while the mai land gets none.

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The mainland never ordered any. As a matter of fact, China never administered any mRNA vaccines to their populace.
 
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