Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

K

KenC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Delta variant is real challenge facing all of us, according to Eric Ding.
Even vaccination is no longer the bullet proof vest. What's worse being vaccinated allow some people to become asymptomatic instead and therefore transmit the virus more widely than before. Still, he is pro vaccine, but we need to apply a string of measures together.

 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
You are 100% correct that 75-200 million people might die at 2% CFR over 7.9 billion people , but what does that have to do with "Air-travel and open borders eliminates natural selective pressures or evolution towards less virality"??? That is address the moral/ethical question which is an entirely separate conversation we are having, which is the scientific basis of evolution in a globalized society with open borders.


Yes, you are correct that Viruses have higher mutation rates than Bacteria, and Yes, you are correct that Higher mutation rates may result in higher probability of lethal strains, but nobody disputes this. Rather, it's whether a more virulent strain becomes the dominant form in circulation, or whether maladaptive mutations prevent it from becoming the dominant strain.

Also, FYI, Bubonic plague is proven for re-infection too. You can get re-infected by Bubonic plague after just a few months after infection.


Yes, but the whole "Air-line, Air-travel, Open Borders' bullshit is wrong.

Yes, they can co-exist, but the original question is whether evolutionary selective pressures exist in the age of air-travel, open borders, and transportation, not whether a virus can exhibit high virulence and still be transmissible. That was never even in dispute. After Bubonic Plague exhausted the entire human world population, it evolved to become less virulent (severe/harmful/deadly). It was never in dispute that high virulence and mediocre/high transmissibility can co-exists.


Using your logic, due to high mutation rates, high reinfection rate, and high transmissibility for COVID, there is no evolutionary pressure for Spanish Flu of 1918 to reduce in virulence (severe/harm/death)...... but it DID drop in virulence.

You can't say due to high mutate rates and high reinfection, there is no evolutionary pressure for reducing virulence (severe/harm/death), because Spanish Flu proves that you can reduce virulence....



Using your logic, high rates of mutations and high transmissibility (including re-infection) for Spanish Flu could allow virulence to rise to 90%....... but the exact opposite happened, the virulence actually REDUCED.

Again, it's whether a dominant strain will occur with high virulence, not whether mutates can possibly result in lethal variants (we know random mutations can occur with lethal strains), but whether the overall dominant representation is a highly lethal virus, just look to Spanish Flu to see the exact opposite occur, despite higher mutation and re-infection rates.


Thank you, I am glad we are all on the same page on this issue.....Now if it becomes a moral/ethical question rather than a scientific question, I am glad to address this point as well (see below)



If the Chinese population is 100% vaccinated (this is an important point), then there is exponentially less deaths, because even Chinese vaccines elicits an 85-95% protection against death.
  • Coronavac: 86-98% protection against Death (
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    )
  • SinoPharm: 84-96% protection against Death. (
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    )
So assuming if the Chinese population is 100% vaccinated, you have significantly less deaths compared to unvaccinated population. I'm not advocate for China to give up now, I'm saying once everyone vaccinated, with booster shots for new variants, perhaps you don't need forever lockdowns.


If the Chinese population is 100% vaccinated (this is an important point), then China can sustain Indian+American+European levels of infection (total) with only a fraction of total deaths, because 99.9% of Vaccinated people survive COVID-19.



No, I'm saying once everyone in China is 100% vaccinated, with annual booster shots for new variants, and deaths go down significantly due to mass vaccination, we can adopt the same strategy as we do against seasonal influenza.

I am not advocating for everyone to ignore vaccines and let the virus run wild? I'm saying once everyone is 100% vaccinated and boosters are available..... then you can adopt the seasonal flu strategy.


So your "air travel and open borders" theory somehow morphed into an moral/ethical question, rather than a scientific question. Got it.



This is a moral/ethical question, rather a scientific question.

A better analogy.

Fires consume oxygen, like virus consume humans.

Moisture, in the form of humidity and precipitation, can slow the fire down and reduce it's intensity, or even eliminate the fire.... Just like Vaccines can slow transmission of virus, or even eliminate it via herd immunity.

So if everyone is vaccinated 100%, it's equivalent to raining which can extinguish the fire before it consumes all the oxygen.

The Bubonic Plague never "ended", there is over 650 deaths every year, how can you say it "ended" when so many people still die each year.

Who the hell is Quarantining because of Bubonic Plague?



Yes, Bubonic Plague did become less virulent (severe/harm/death).

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Smallpox get eradicated by vaccination.... completely different virus. Different virus have different characteristics unique to it.... for example, Smallpox and Polio can only infect humans and mutates relatively slowly, so a targeted mass vaccination can eradicate the disease.

COVID, like Spanish Flu or Bubonic plague, is much higher mutation rate than SmallPox or other diseases,



The Spanish Flu, H1N1 influenza, and Four Other Coronaviruses all evolved to become less deadly.

"As H1N1 moved geographically from the epicentre of the pandemic, the disease became less deadly. This is a general trend for viruses and is seen in
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that have made the leap to humans in recent centuries and now cause a quarter of all common colds. To work out whether covid-19 will follow a similar evolutionary trajectory, we need to understand why the virulence of a virus changes as it spreads.."
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Click to expand...

You point to a link in Fortune.

Theory, Conjecture, and not peer reviewed. Points to a study and calls it "awesome" which is an opinion.

Something may still have the same level of deadliness, we only have far better medicines to reduce fatalities. Combine that with other measures such as superior hygiene, pest eradication, and quarantines. Yes, the Venetians did impose quarantines and that slowed down the Plague. In addition, our own species also developed its own natural defenses through herd immunity and micro-evolution.

In a science debate, you don't refer to Internet links, but to high quality peer reviewed work. Such as something from the Lancet.

None of the covid 19 variants are less deadlier than the original. In fact, Delta is already shown to be slightly deadlier.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Latest NHC daily report:
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66 new confirmed cases, 36 imported, 30 domestic (Jiangsu 18 (all Yangzhou), Henan 4, Hubei 4, Hunan 3, Yunnan 1)
19 new asymptomatic carriers, 18 imported, 1 domestic (Hunan)
7 asymptomatic carriers converted to confirmed cases, 4 of them imported, 3 domestic

I think we're nearly done with this wave.
 
Xizor

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Temstar said:
Latest NHC daily report:
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66 new confirmed cases, 36 imported, 30 domestic (Jiangsu 18 (all Yangzhou), Henan 4, Hubei 4, Hunan 3, Yunnan 1)
19 new asymptomatic carriers, 18 imported, 1 domestic (Hunan)
7 asymptomatic carriers converted to confirmed cases, 4 of them imported, 3 domestic

I think we're nearly done with this wave.
Click to expand...
Need more thorough testing. The media from certain corners were salivating at the prospect of China having a runaway outbreak and tainting its Zero-covid policy.

Its not jealousy. It's just malice and evil at display. China must aspire to deliver "first-world" standards of life quality even though by wealth it isn't first world.
 
D

Dolcevita

Major
KYli said:
Basically, Pfizer effectiveness is next to zero for infections. And MSM is silent and nobody is saying anything.
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View attachment 76089
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'Despite an early and effective vaccination campaign, the number of serious cases in Israel has risen almost tenfold over the last month, from 45 cases on July 13 to 462 on Friday, according to data from the Ministry of Health. Of those, 75 are on ventilators."


WTF.


I am being tempted to get vaccinated with sinopharm again despite already having 2 shots of pfizer.
Any expert advise or recommendation? Specially if one is in close contact with elderly.
 
D

Dolcevita

Major
SteelBird said:
Some Vietnamese people chose to leave after being informed that the vaccine used for them is Sinopharm. In the clip, one medical worker said "What more do you wanna ask when there's vaccine for you?", the man reply "Will you be responsible if I take the jab and die?".
Click to expand...

VIetnam is suffering the consequences of their own propaganda. They only have themselves to blame,
 
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