Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

SteelBird

Colonel
Hi Steelbird, when I had my first jab of AZ about 4hrs later, I had flu like symptoms, a massive headache and fever. On the second jab 7weeks later, I had but a mild headache and majority of people I spoke experience the same phenomenon.
I've taken two jabs of Sinovac. Not any strange feeling at all, sometime I even doubt that did they inject placebo instead of vaccine for me? To eliminate that doubt, I bought antibody test kit. I haven't used it yet.

Honestly, I'm a bit hesitate to take the AZ as the 3rd jab due to its bad reputation around the world. We currently have 1 million doses of AZ donated by Japan. I believe this lot of vaccine is near expire. And another half million doses from the UK.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
The original Spanish flu epidemic evolved into the weaker seasonal flu viruses we use to deal with... until those were displaced by coronavirus.

Logically speaking, it would be impossible for us to exist if viruses evolved to be more lethal and easily transmittable at the same time, since if there were such a trend the emergence of the super virus that kills everyone would be inevitable.

So this scaremongering over the hypothetical 'super corona' is completely unfounded, and is used by lockdown fetishists to advance their own agenda.

Even though its obvious that the nations warfighting capability cannot be sustained over decade long time periods if lockdowns periodically destroy the economy, and even though its obvious that the virus will become more contagious and endemic, these two simple facts elude the lockdown shills. Perhaps these people just want something to bash the West with, but this is obviously not the right tool to do so with?


No. Its because ancient and medieval peoples remain highly isolated due to the enormity of travel distances by foot, camel, caravan, boat or horse. There is also the geographical isolation caused by oceans and mountains. This allows societies that were plagued to be wiped out without affecting the other. When geographical isolation gets breached, we get events like the Black Plague that killed nearly a third of Europe, or the introduction of flu from Europe to the Meso Americas and the South Pacific islands, which brought genocidal levels of infection, leading to the collapse of entire societies.

A supervirus may already have happened in the past. It may have wiped out humanity in one section of the globe, finding no victims left and no way to travel further, died out with its last victim.
 

The Observer

Junior Member
Registered Member
I've taken two jabs of Sinovac. Not any strange feeling at all, sometime I even doubt that did they inject placebo instead of vaccine for me? To eliminate that doubt, I bought antibody test kit. I haven't used it yet.

Honestly, I'm a bit hesitate to take the AZ as the 3rd jab due to its bad reputation around the world. We currently have 1 million doses of AZ donated by Japan. I believe this lot of vaccine is near expire. And another half million doses from the UK.

For me, I've taken 2 jabs of CoronaVac. Pretty much the same experience; no strange feeling at all. The procedure was extremely quick and I actually felt the rubbing alcohol more than the prick itself, it's really that light. And, yes, I kept asking the nurse to confirm I really had taken the jab when they said it's done because it just felt way too quick.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
This part:

There is tendency to evolve less lethal strains because viruses want to keep the host alive.
That's not how evolution works.

Pathogens evolve to be less lethal because the more lethal pathogens will kill their hosts before they can spread too far.

It's about the availability of hosts to infect, not geographic spread to nearest population. All you done is shift the ceiling of how many target at-risk population you can infect from the tribal level to the world-wide level, but the natural selection pressure does not disappear because there is still a finite number of hosts to infect, whether at tribal or world-wide level. Therefore evolution still occur.


1. There will still be mutations of lethal strains. Nothing says pathogens will avoid lethal strains. A lot of people will still die.

As sinophilia pointed out.... I never said lethal strains cannot happen. Mutations are random, so anything can happen, include more lethal variants. It's whether natural selective pressures annihilate maladaptive mutations or encourages it to flourish into a dominant strain. Hence the "tendency" or common average for it be more contagious and less lethal based on historical analysis of most viruses.

2. In nature, it's common for entire populations to be annihilated by a particularly virulent pathogen. It usually cannot kill all populations of a species because those populations are spread too far apart for transmission. You can see where the problem is. With modern transportation, you can reach the other side of the world in 12 hours. There's no such thing as "too far apart".

Evolution and natural selection still occurs because all you have done is shifted the limited available hosts to infect at the country or regional level (finite population: 300 Million) to another ecosystem with a limited available host to infect (world-wide finite population: 7.9 billion). It's not about geographical distance to nearest population, it's about the total available hosts (e.g. at-risk population) which is finite and limited on this earth, so evolution will still occur because these people will either gain immunity (natural or vaccine), or die off, thereby reducing the at-risk population.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
No. Its because ancient and medieval peoples remain highly isolated due to the enormity of travel distances by foot, camel, caravan, boat or horse. There is also the geographical isolation caused by oceans and mountains. This allows societies that were plagued to be wiped out without affecting the other. When geographical isolation gets breached, we get events like the Black Plague that killed nearly a third of Europe, or the introduction of flu from Europe to the Meso Americas and the South Pacific islands, which brought genocidal levels of infection, leading to the collapse of entire societies.

A supervirus may already have happened in the past. It may have wiped out humanity in one section of the globe, finding no victims left and no way to travel further, died out with its last victim.

Your own example of Bubonic Plague proves this wrong..... because Bubonic Plague never "died out with it's last victim", in fact, there is Fleas and Rats (animal reservoir) that keep the Plague alive for centuries until now, and Bubonic Plague also evolved to be less virulent and lethal. Even today, Bubonic Plague kills 650 people every year..... We don't care anymore because we have modern medicine that can reduce the death rate from 90% down to 10%. (Sound Familiar??)

The Bubonic Plague evolved to be less virulent because it exhausted it's world-wide human population (finite population), which explains why so few people die from bubonic plague in modern day.

What happened with Bubonic Plague will happen to COVID.... once the virus evolves less virulence and lethal, the death rate is significantly reduced due to modern medicine and vaccines, and overall death rate is low enough, we will just forget about it, even if it continues to exist and kill 650 people every year.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
That sounds like wishful thinking to me. Is there any evidence at all to support this view?
It’s pretty much wishful thinking and selective quoting.

The part about viruses evolving into less lethal strains is generally only applicable to already exceptionally lethal virus like Ebola and only in a historical context before modern travel when it took days, weeks or even months to move between major population centres.

They either wipe out all available hosts so quick as to end its own spread before it can reach new population centres to start a new outbreak, or evolve to be less lethal to keep the host alive long enough to get to the next settlement.

With modern travel, even hyper-lethal pathogens like Ebola can spread like wildfire. And covid is currently so long on the lethality chart it can literally exponentially grow in lethality and still not significantly hinder its own spread.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
It’s pretty much wishful thinking and selective quoting.

The part about viruses evolving into less lethal strains is generally only applicable to already exceptionally lethal virus like Ebola and only in a historical context before modern travel when it took days, weeks or even months to move between major population centres.

They either wipe out all available hosts so quick as to end its own spread before it can reach new population centres to start a new outbreak, or evolve to be less lethal to keep the host alive long enough to get to the next settlement.

With modern travel, even hyper-lethal pathogens like Ebola can spread like wildfire. And covid is currently so long on the lethality chart it can literally exponentially grow in lethality and still not significantly hinder its own spread.

Unless it can travel on SpaceX rockets to reach new alien populations, the virus will eventually exhaust the world-wide human population, which is a finite and limited number of hosts to infect. All you have done is shifted the finite availability of hosts from the tribal/regional level to the world-wide level, but there is still finite number of hosts at the world-wide population to exhaust, so Evolution will still occur.

So that's why Bubonic Plague evolved to become less virulent and less lethal because it needed to survive after exhausting the finite and limited world-wide population. The advent of modern medicine reduced Bubonic plague from 90% death rate to 10% death rate, which combined with it's evolution of less virulence, we only see 650 people die from plague every year, so we forget about it. Same with COVID in the future.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Unless it can travel on SpaceX rockets to reach new alien populations, the virus will eventually exhaust the world-wide human population, which is a finite and limited number of hosts to infect. All you have done is shifted the finite availability of hosts from the tribal/regional level to the world-wide level, but there is still finite number of hosts at the world-wide population to exhaust, so Evolution will still occur.

So that's why Bubonic Plague evolved to become less virulent because it needed to survive after exhausting the finite and limited world-wide population. The advent of modern medicine reduced Bubonic plague from 90% death rate to 10% death rate, which combined with it's evolution of less virulence, we only see 650 people die from plague every year, so we forget about it. Same with COVID in the future.

You seem to forget the 75-200 million deaths it took to get to your happy sunny uplands with the plague.

You are also forgetting the fundamental difference between covid and the bubonic plague which is the high mutation rate and proven re-infection capabilities of covid.

The very example of Bubonic Plague proves that even exceptionally lethal pathogens with 90+% kill rates can spread far and wide even in medieval times. That means there is absolutely no evolutionary pressure for covid lethality to drop. It can rise to 90% and still be able to effectively spread before fundamentally undermining its own spread potential.
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
Has anyone seen The Suicide Squad? Jon Cena plays Peacekeeper. He'll kill every man, woman, and child if it's for liberty. At a point later in the movie Idris Elba's character, Bloodsport, says to Peacekeeper, I think you say you're for liberty just so you can do anything you want. The movie is outrageously entertaining but the subtext was definitely critical about the US which is why I see the alt-right not liking this movie.

I wasn't interested, but now I am, thanks for sharing.
 
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