Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[AssassinsMace]

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Has anyone seen The Suicide Squad? Jon Cena plays Peacekeeper. He'll kill every man, woman, and child if it's for liberty. At a point later in the movie Idris Elba's character, Bloodsport, says to Peacekeeper, I think you say you're for liberty just so you can do anything you want. The movie is outrageously entertaining but the subtext was definitely critical about the US which is why I see the alt-right not liking this movie.

 

[Phead128]

I am not a subject matter expert in biology. However, from my understanding of biochemistry, it is true that while any given mutation doesn't adapt and is random, the cumulative sum of mutations that result in significant phenotypical changes IS adaptive. Natural selection dictates that. Maladaptive mutations are wiped out.

Here's an example of directed evolution in virus culturing that predates COVID, demonstrating that cultured viruses lose virulence compared to wild type due to mutations to adapt to the cell culture. When reexposed to mice, they regained virulence through genetic changes. This shows that the net effect of mutations is adaptation.

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Yea, because that article discusses Test-Tube Viruses, cultured In Vitro (e.g. Lab-grown).... Of course you lose virulence when grown in Test-tubes where there is zero natural selective pressures. You picked the wrong article that you didn't understand.

We are talking about Animals vs. Humans (in vivo), not Animals vs. Lab-grown (in vitro) virus.

Also, yes, evolution happens via mutations...we know that. There is tendency to evolve less lethal strains because viruses want to keep the host alive. We don't know what happen to Delta-variant (India), they may have very high tolerance to poor hygiene which forces COVID to be more transmission via mutation.

 

[solarz]

Also, yes, evolution happens via mutations...we know that. There is tendency to evolve less lethal strains because viruses want to keep the host alive.

That sounds like wishful thinking to me. Is there any evidence at all to support this view?

 

[sinophilia]

That sounds like wishful thinking to me. Is there any evidence at all to support this view?

Which part? Neither statement is wishful or in contention. The primary method of evolution is through random mutation. Those that are beneficial reach fixation through natural selection, those that aren't are lost over time or asymptote to 0.

There is also a tendency for a virus to evolve less lethal and more lethal strains, on average less lethal is more common, as the entire history of virology has shown. That doesn't guarantee that a more lethal version won't appear, but that also isn't what he said.

 

[sinophilia]

I am not a subject matter expert in biology. However, from my understanding of biochemistry, it is true that while any given mutation doesn't adapt and is random, the cumulative sum of mutations that result in significant phenotypical changes IS adaptive. Natural selection dictates that. Maladaptive mutations are wiped out.

Here's an example of directed evolution in virus culturing that predates COVID, demonstrating that cultured viruses lose virulence compared to wild type due to mutations to adapt to the cell culture. When reexposed to mice, they regained virulence through genetic changes. This shows that the net effect of mutations is adaptation.

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I mean yea, seeing as how adaptation happens at the level of the entire individual, within the context of that statement that's the only way for adaptation to occur.

 

[SteelBird]

Okay, but Indian Variant Factory exists, and Deer population has 70% infection of SAR-CoV-2, where it thrives and mutate. Not to mention Bats, Civets, Dogs, Cats are all getting infected by SAR-CoV-2 virus (no symptoms), but they will thrive and mutate there as well.

Are you going to slaughter all the Dogs/Cats/Bats/Deer population to eradicate the disease? Or are you going to vaccinate all the Dogs/Cats/Bats/Deers to eradicate the disease? Realistically speaking, you cannot eradicate this disease because of the animal host reservoir population.

It can jump from bats to humans anytime (again), even if China closes it's borders to foreigners.

I can't agree with you on this part!

India has nearly 1.4 billion population while China has more than 1.4 billion. The two combined creates a 2.8 billion population or roughly 35% of world population. According to your statement, we've got a 1.4 billion variant factory. If you (actually 'WE') create another 1.4 billion factory in China, you (we) will double the variant production. That's no good, trust me!

Dogs, cats and other animals get infected by SAR-CoV-2 and will mutate. We don't need to slaughter them. Just stay away from them. For domestic animals, cure them if we can. Animals carry SAR-CoV-2 far longer before it jumped to human. If the virus mutates on animals, I believe it's the variant that will not jump to human easily as far as we stay away from them.

 

[Phead128]

If China can get herd immunity in vaccination in Dogs and Cats which are known to carry SAR-CoV-2 (no symptoms), but it can thrive and mutate and jump back to humans again, then imagine Western media narrative: "Animal Rights Violated! They are abusing and torturing Animals with vaccines that have adverse effects!"

 

[supersnoop]

So you ignore my major points and go off riding your little hobby horse.




My first major point was that allowing high infection rates in China would risk the evolution of a truly lethal strain. You apparently acknowledge this point, but you don't seem to mind allowing some Chinese to die in order to demonstrate the deadliness of a new strain. Thanks for your "advice", but no thanks.

I prefer to prevent forseeable catastrophes, rather than allow them to happen and attempt to recover from them.

My second major point was, if it ain't broke, why fix it? China's infection rate is very low, and her economy is booming. Why mess with a good thing? Unless you (and @Phead128, and @supersnoop) WANT the Middle Kingdom to do something stupid.

Speaking for myself, I said very specifically “booster of second generation vaccines

We are talking about some point in the future. Why else is China developing so many different types of vaccines? 1 shot, 3 shot, inactivated, protein unit, mRNA, etc. It is because you expect to open up at some point in the future, and you want to do it safely.

Right now of course you stay the course because every other country is still recovering. But it’s not meant to be forever.

Furthermore I also said the monitoring system remains in place.

 

[OppositeDay]

Also, yes, evolution happens via mutations...we know that. There is tendency to evolve less lethal strains because viruses want to keep the host alive.

Yes, a less lethal virus has, ceteris paribus, greater chances of replicating itself so it will out-compete more lethal variants. But a more transmissible variant will likely win out regardless. Remember the fatality rate of Covid is very low. The difference between killing 2% of its carriers and killing 10% is not that big, the former means 98% of its carriers survive and the latter means 90%. The difference is much smaller than the difference between a R0 of 10 and a R0 of 12.

 

[solarz]

Which part? Neither statement is wishful or in contention. The primary method of evolution is through random mutation. Those that are beneficial reach fixation through natural selection, those that aren't are lost over time or asymptote to 0.

There is also a tendency for a virus to evolve less lethal and more lethal strains, on average less lethal is more common, as the entire history of virology has shown. That doesn't guarantee that a more lethal version won't appear, but that also isn't what he said.

This part:

here is tendency to evolve less lethal strains because viruses want to keep the host alive.

That's not how evolution works.

Pathogens evolve to be less lethal because the more lethal pathogens will kill their hosts before they can spread too far.

There are two obvious problems with this:

1. There will still be mutations of lethal strains. Nothing says pathogens will avoid lethal strains. A lot of people will still die.

2. In nature, it's common for entire populations to be annihilated by a particularly virulent pathogen. It usually cannot kill all populations of a species because those populations are spread too far apart for transmission. You can see where the problem is. With modern transportation, you can reach the other side of the world in 12 hours. There's no such thing as "too far apart".