COMAC C929 Widebody Airliner

The key word is *synergy*. Airbus could not happen if Daimler or Aerospatiale or CASA had wanted to go alone. China should try to create an ChinaBUS.

ARJ-21 is only a domestic and so far very low production aircraft. If I am not wrong 1,500 old E series produced and new E-series has all the certifications to be sold globally. COMAC does not have experience of Embreer on marketing or maintenance.

"foreign" components are true for ARJ-21 or C919 and even for CR929. It is just the current global engine market.

I think a company backed by China, Russia and Brazil can be a global success. If Korea or Japan can join, then, the dupoly will end. It is probably never going to happen though

foxmulder_ms said:

The key word is *synergy*. Airbus could not happen if Daimler or Aerospatiale or CASA had wanted to go alone. China should try to create an ChinaBUS.

ARJ-21 is only a domestic and so far very low production aircraft. If I am not wrong 1,500 old E series produced and new E-series has all the certifications to be sold globally. COMAC does not have experience of Embreer on marketing or maintenance.

"foreign" components are true for ARJ-21 or C919 and even for CR929. It is just the current global engine market.

I think a company backed by China, Russia and Brazil can be a global success. If Korea or Japan can join, then, the dupoly will end. It is probably never going to happen though

Click to expand...

Do you believe a BCR-929 will be treat by the US, or for that matter Europe, any differently from a CR-929 project ?

Rettam Stacf said:

Do you believe a BCR-929 will be treat by the US, or for that matter Europe, any differently from a CR-929 project ?

Click to expand...

I think the correct question is: Who will have a better chance to sell to the rest of the world? China on her own or China within a consortium?

Airline demand in USA+Europe will be "only" a third of the global market in coming 2 decades. >40% is Asia! ME, S. America (Brazil is the biggest) and Africa together with CIS (Russia is the biggest) countries is another >20%.




Current dupoly structure is actually not that stable considering the demand geography. That is why I think a four country group China+Russia+Brazil+S. Korea can be viable from a business and marketing perspective but who knows whether the political will can be found.

Rettam Stacf said:

[1] China already has the Comac ARJ21, a direct competitor of the Embraer E-Series.

Click to expand...

One that is not internationally competitive, however.

Rettam Stacf said:

[2] All the E-Series engine, avionics and many air frame components are sourced from outside of Brazil. Embraer brings very little to the party.

Click to expand...

The amount of indigenous technology is comparable to the ARJ21 or C919, and quite apart from that, an aircraft is more than the sum of its parts. Engineering it to squeeze the last tenths of a percent of efficiency from the complex interplay between all of the components is a skill in its own right, one that takes experience to acquire. That notably includes non-hardware components BTW, such as tech support.

And this is an area where Embraer is undoubtedly very strong - it's the very asset even an industry leader like Boeing was after with the now-defunct joint venture. They are to airliners what Saab is to fighters.

Don’t underestimate the importance of support chain. These aircraft fly hundreds of hours a month and need a lot of TLC. Having an established supplier and repair chain is often a huge deciding factor for airlines.
Russia and China are pretty well guaranteed such a chain in there territories but beyond that will depend on the existing economic systems and industry. Right now Embaer has a strong position below the Boeing and Airbus lines with the retirement of the 727 and emerging A220 formerly C series still yet to enter production.
However the question of joint ventures is a big one. Embaer wants to sell in China and that means competition of E series vs ARJ21, even if ARJ is China only that’s still a market fight.

Getting Embraer onboard is not going to help with this. And Embraer won't be interested because of this.

As soon as CR-929 shows sign of success, history will repeat itself. So Russia and China better focus on self reliance if they want to make the project a success. There is a lot of discussion on the subject in the C-919 thread.

Three engine options have been pushed GE’s GEnx, UK’s RR’s Trent 1000 TEN and a Russian UEC-Aviadvigatel JSC’s PD35. If GE is barred they have two other options. There has also been talk of an indigenous AEF3500 for it as well.

Rettam Stacf said:

Getting Embraer onboard is not going to help with this. And Embraer won't be interested because of this.

As soon as CR-929 shows sign of success, history will repeat itself. So Russia and China better focus on self reliance if they want to make the project a success. There is a lot of discussion on the subject in the C-919 thread.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

This is actually another reason **for** a coalition. When it is only China it is "easier" to ban when it is China+Russia+Brazil+X country it will be that much more difficult and almost meaningless and impossible both in economic and strategic terms. this is actually one of the reasons why Airbus was successful. US couldn't do much about it as they did with British (Sr117) or Canadian (Avro Arrow, Cseries) or even Israeli (Lavi) aerospace industries when they tried to came up with their own meaningful/high impact products alone.

Also, China (and probably Russia) will never stop developing their own critical systems such as engines anyway.

Current airliner business is ripe for another entrant led by China

That’s fine from the Chinese perspective but Embraer has to have a reason to get in to.
Frankly the whole thing is groundless.
Yes Embraer got burned from the Boeing joint. But why were they looking to crawl into bed with Boeing to begin with?
They had hoped to get a stronger foot in the US market and visa vi Airbus position themselves to counter the shifts into smaller birds.
To have Boeing back a play of the KC390 for replacement of C130 world wide and for the USAF, to position the E series as the bottom of the 7x7 line using Boeing to sure up their service network.
They hoped to Use Boeing as the same steppingstones that you want Comac to use Embraer for.

foxmulder_ms said:

This is actually another reason **for** a coalition. When it is only China it is "easier" to ban when it is China+Russia+Brazil+X country it will be that much more difficult and almost meaningless and impossible both in economic and strategic terms. this is actually one of the reasons why Airbus was successful. US couldn't do much about it as they did with British (Sr117) or Canadian (Avro Arrow, Cseries) or even Israeli (Lavi) aerospace industries when they tried to came up with their own meaningful/high impact products alone.

Also, China (and probably Russia) will never stop developing their own critical systems such as engines anyway.

Current airliner business is ripe for another entrant led by China

Click to expand...

Candidate for a partner.

Rolls Royce, Safran or Airbus - sure.

Embraer - not worth the hassle. US will roll over Brazil like an ant on the sidewalk.

Example : Last December, Trump slapped tariff on Brazil steel and aluminum when China bought soy bean from Brazil instead the US and Brazil capitulated to get the tariff rescinded.