COMAC C919

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Cranking out airliners like sausages might sound cool but it’s a sure fire way to bankrupt the company and end up with poor quality.

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I am not sure why you think quality will go down when the plane is already certified?
The more industrial chains West bring back its own countries. the lesser skilled labor will be able to export Aviation products.
why would any supplier interested in supplying to ARJ21/C919 with low volume?. they can jack up the prices instantly and make both programmes closed down prematurely.
There is no primary choice but what is available and certified at given price. 99% of domestic travel in China will be 3300km or below range.

That certificate can be pulled if the product isn’t up to snuff just look at the Boeing 787 right now. Same for what I mean. The production of a highly complex product like this is fixed to maintain business. Despite what you might think Airlines don’t print money. They have to pay for the Aircraft. They can get loans but it’s not like such deals are done over lunch.
You also need to keep up with trains of supply for critical sub assemblies on both sides.
Factors like rates of engines and hull parts that have to be within an especially tight specifications mean that you are going to have a set rate of construction and delivery and it’s not just on new aircraft you also have the other side of the chain. Upkeep. The same tooling and assembly lines are used to build spare parts and replacements for critical maintenance cycle. What good is an ARJ to Air China if they can’t fix the engines? If they can’t get their hands on a critical widget? If they send the jet in for a tune up and find that they are back logged into the next decade? Farther I can point to what happened when an aviation OEM got more interested in cranking out product as opposed to keeping up with quality the MAX. Though I believe Boeing can pull its head out of it yet it’s A cautionary tale.

I am not sure why you keep brining Boeing 737Max and 787.
Boeing make too many products and at many places with outsourcing. so its reasonable they will have problem in some products during some years. Just look at Boeing P8 and C17 how many flying with US and Allies?. how many specialized Boeing aircraft flying with various governments like head of states and kings/Crown prince.
Comac is making one product at a time and its certified as it is using older tech. not even much composites in airframe. so why you think they should be slow and global suppliers should wait for them? by not delivering anticipated volumes. All those suppliers can sue or move away for comac products. if you think Comac cannot find competent people to raise production rates of ARJ21 than why start more projects like C919/C929.

pmc said:

I am not sure why you keep brining Boeing 737Max and 787.
Boeing make too many products and at many places with outsourcing. so its reasonable they will have problem in some products during some years. Just look at Boeing P8 and C17 how many flying with US and Allies?. how many specialized Boeing aircraft flying with various governments like head of states and kings/Crown prince.
Comac is making one product at a time and its certified as it is using older tech. not even much composites in airframe. so why you think they should be slow and global suppliers should wait for them? by not delivering anticipated volumes. All those suppliers can sue or move away for comac products. if you think Comac cannot find competent people to raise production rates of ARJ21 than why start more projects like C919/C929.

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"Oo, I wonder why China even bothers with C919."
How do you know COMAC is using "older" tech? Global suppliers waiting for COMAC ? Where? How much do you think the turbulence introduced by US has affected C919 ? Can Comac easily substitute the parts? Even if it did, wouldn't it need to start the testing cycle again? Sue Comac for what US did?

pmc said:

I am not sure why you keep brining Boeing 737Max and 787.
Boeing make too many products and at many places with outsourcing. so its reasonable they will have problem in some products during some years. Just look at Boeing P8 and C17 how many flying with US and Allies?. how many specialized Boeing aircraft flying with various governments like head of states and kings/Crown prince.
Comac is making one product at a time and its certified as it is using older tech. not even much composites in airframe. so why you think they should be slow and global suppliers should wait for them? by not delivering anticipated volumes. All those suppliers can sue or move away for comac products. if you think Comac cannot find competent people to raise production rates of ARJ21 than why start more projects like C919/C929.

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You have what I am trying to say wrong. First They are an example of a new product rushed because the maker rushed to do both product of existing line and starting new product. Comac has an existing line but it needs time as Boeing or Airbus does to establish both lines of sub contract and production. I am saying that taking their time let’s them do that rushing one product like the ARJ won’t help them. The certificate procedure is based on the aircraft being built to a standard. If the standard slips or a problem is discovered that certificate can be made void resulting in a grounding if that problem is pervasive that grounding can kill orders, stop delivery, stop payments demand costly fixes. Farther aircraft like the ARJ are not “Fixed” they regularly as production progresses undergo upgrades and minor design changes between blocks and for customers. Example the A350’s pealing paint has exposed three generations of a metallic mesh used for lightning protection under the skin.
It’s not a question of competence it’s a question of need. Does Comac need to rush production of ARJ21 and crank them out? Last I read ARJ21 has an order book of 400 units. With 2020 having set a brisk 24 units delivered that’s not numbers to sneeze at. Considering that Comac is only 12 years old, that the ARJ was only first delivered 6 years ago that’s a good rate. As the company progresses they will accelerate but heavy industry still takes time.

I am saying is that world skilled labor situation is very different after pandemic than pre-pandemic. those 24 are built with pre-pandemic parts. and only 60 are actively used. they may have produced more but there is no evidence all production is actually flying and flying anywhere near other planes in the same airline in terms of hours.
such small volume production no suppliers will work with them. either raise the production quickly or lose the suppliers.

Right now raising production isn’t a viable option commercially. Remember that the Pandemic has imposed lockdowns and hit commercial airlines hard. Farther the stimulation of the markets over the last two years means that the commercial shipping system is running 125% over capacity. The logistics train we have was designed on a “Just in time” model where they operate at 98-100% as normal.
Additionally China is facing issues of both sanctioning and electric power management issues.
If the suppliers for such a program were going to fold. An increased rush order will not stop that. All it would do is stress the logistics train leading to unfinished aircraft parked waiting for missing parts.
Generally speaking you never have 100% of an air fleet in operation. That’s the norm. You have some in repair and maintenance which when dealing with a tail mounted engine on a large aircraft tend to take longer than a wing mounted. With aviation still in restrictions some aircraft are going to sit no matter what.

Pandemic hardly made dent in Airbus supplies to Chinese market. infact they will suck greater pool of Chinese labor to benefit Airbus.

pmc said:

Pandemic hardly made dent in Airbus supplies to Chinese market. infact they will suck greater pool of Chinese labor to benefit Airbus.

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This is good for chinese companies in the midstream. China ( state owned enterprises especially ) has to familiarize themselves with the civilian aviation systems standards. While they do have experience supplying Military aircrafts, the bar is higher for civilian operations.

Airbus's move ought to be welcomed with open arms. Chinese labor pool will never run out. Unemployment, although suppressed for now, is a pacing concern for China.

Xsizor said:

This is good for chinese companies in the midstream. China ( state owned enterprises especially ) has to familiarize themselves with the civilian aviation systems standards. While they do have experience supplying Military aircrafts, the bar is higher for civilian operations.

Airbus's move ought to be welcomed with open arms. Chinese labor pool will never run out. Unemployment, although suppressed for now, is a pacing concern for China.

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business is business. everyone takes advantage of everyone else, especially your opponent.

it's a smart move for Airbus. The US sanctions against China's aviation industry will certainly lead to China's sanction against Boeing. Airbus sees an opportunity.