COMAC C919
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
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COMAC had been traditionally cautious. Its aircraft are flight tested 5000 hours as opposed to the 3000 of Airbus or Boeing.
Compared to the military programs like J-16, J-20, Y-20, J-35 (once accepted) it is immensely careful and deliberate.
The fact they are aiming for a ramp up in production is they are finally confident things could be mass produced. It also means that the domestic engine is near.
Hmm.... Is this really possible though? 50C919 this year?
How many have they produced so far? We have only 9months left this year.
So you wish COMAC to take forever time and crawl instead of walk? There is always a moment when a babby begins to walk in confidence instead of crawl, now is the time for COMAC. You'd better to worry about the Boeing 737 MAX that you ride than a C919.
Making the production line capable of producing 50 per year is not the same thing of producing 50 a year especially the first year of the ramp-up.
lcloo
Captain
They were talking about capacity, not roll-out number. You need to have a capacity in place a few years before you can use that capacity to the fullest.
And before your production runs reach the existing maximum capacity, you need to plan to finance the construction of your next capacity. Capacity here would be new machinery shops, new assembly halls, new toolings, training and many other things.
Getting the supply chain contacts sorted and confirmed I think would be a big risk too. There are shortages of GE LEAP engines, seats, etc. these would need to be confirmed as ready to be supplied.
Without these you are just making a shell.
If the domestic engine gets ready in time, then would it be an issue? I suspect we won't have to wait until 2029 for a LEAP replacement.
The other stuff like seats doesn´t seem like a big hurdle.
Regarding the shortage of LEAP, I find the following article.
Especially interesting is this paragraph
GE delivered 1,911 commercial aircraft engines last year (2024), down 8% year on year. Of those, 1,407 were Leaps, including the Leap-1As that power A320neos and the 737 Max’s Leap-1B. By comparison, Leap deliveries came in at 1,570 in 2023.
We know that GE and Safran produce equal number of LEAPs, they also have multiple suppliers for almost every components, "no single manufacturing choke point" as wiki put it. So the question is "is the shortage/supply chain problem only GE's problem and only related to LEAP-1A/B?" I would only be concerned if there is similar report on Safran's LEAP-1C production.
Regarding preparation for the rest, I'd say that it is always better to have as many as everything prepared and done than wasting time on waiting for something. I'd rather finishing building the house and wait for the installation of the kichen than building the house only after I've got the kichen delivered.
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Did you even read the article?
Yeah, they are planning to produce 50 jets this year, with production capacity of 75 planes. In January, that target was 30 planes with a production capacity of 50 planes.
Considering that COMAC only produced 13 c919 in 2024, if they do manage to produce 50 planes this year, that's a 400% increase. Not to mention that since they have only delivered two planes in the first 3 months of this year, so the bulk of the production will be during the 2nd half of the year. And they are clearly rushing production, since their own plans just 3 months ago had them declaring that they would be targeting 30 planes this year. What changed in the last 3 months that could have allowed them to naturally grow their production target by 60% without sacrificing quality?
Imagine if Airbus or Boeing, or anyone that makes any complex machine really, had announced that they were increasing production by 400% in year. Anyone would be concerned, let alone in an industry where safety is Number 1 and even a single crash and ruin reputations for more than a decade. There's no Chinese magic at work here, COMAC is going to get that new increased target the same way any business does, cutting corners and increased shifts.