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tphuang

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Guofu hydrogen energy has signed agreement with South Africa solar energy company to setup green hydrogen/ammonia production base there. Or at least set up some kind of production supply chain for that. Aiming for 1 GW of electrolyzers order a year

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Sany has also managed to sign a wind/solar/hydrogen/ESS/ammonia in one project in Qinghai

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SPIC hs giend agreement with Yantai gov't for the world's first 100k level e-methanol project. (I don't agree that it's the first such project)

project will involve building a production of 500kt of green methanol when completed. The first phase of plan is for 200kt of capacity

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Inner Mongolia signed a deal where 2GW of wind power will produce 500kt of methanol. 14B RMB investment

also has a ultra high temp electrolysis hydrogen storage tech of 1B RMB and another billion for hydrogen vehicle related tech and 200m RMB for fuel cell manufacturing
remains to be seen how that market works out

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This was already announced before, but now they've officially signed the agreement for delivery of 15 1000NM3/h electrolyzers from Longi to 大安项目
size of new green methanol projects are humongous

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we just have a new 30B RMB project announced for eventually 600k ton of green ammonia production in Jilin. Would require by my calculation around 112k ton of green hydrogen

If we factor in what I wrote above and discussed here
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State Power Investment Corporation Limited (SPIC) plans to establish a 500,000 tons green methanol project in Shandong (for Phase 1, it’s 200,000 tons);

Goldwind, China’s largest wind power generator producer, plans to build a 500,000 tons green methanol complex in Inner Mongolia;

CRRC Wind Power, another major wind power equipment producer and EPC contractor, plans to build 450,000 tons green methanol project in Xinjiang (3 phases)
Just between these mega projects, we are looking at 2million tons of green methanol.

The worldwide production is currently at 110million ton
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so plenty of room for green methanol to ooccupy.
 

tphuang

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size of new green methanol projects are humongous

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we just have a new 30B RMB project announced for eventually 600k ton of green ammonia production in Jilin. Would require by my calculation around 112k ton of green hydrogen

If we factor in what I wrote above and discussed here
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Just between these mega projects, we are looking at 2million tons of green methanol.

The worldwide production is currently at 110million ton
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so plenty of room for green methanol to ooccupy.
I wrote up my thoughts here


The present scale of these projects in China are already impressive. They come online way faster than any Western projects. Recently, a lot of noise was made in Australia about a $1.2B project in Tasmania.
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But that's not coming online until 2027 and the investment and production is tiny compared to any number of projects that you are seeing around China.

We are going to get another solar situation soon where China will be producing 80% of world's electrolyzers. And if Western countries don't want to buy Chinese electrolyzers, that's fine. China will sell to countries that have sun and want to export green hydrogen. You cannot get around Chinese technology or green fuel once China's industrial chain takes off
 

tphuang

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weird part is I have not heard of either companies. lol, they just grow like weeds

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垂直一体化布局带来的直接后果,就是行业产能过剩。2022年,光伏产业规模持续增长,多晶硅、硅片、电池片、组件产量分别达到82.7万吨、357吉瓦、318吉瓦、288.7吉瓦,同比增长均在55%以上。

产能扩张夸张到什么程度,隆基绿能董事长钱宝申给出一组数据,“2021年之前,中国光伏产业用十几年的时间建设起大约380GW的全产业链。而就在SNEC举办的前18个月时间里,中国新增了380GW的全产业链。到2023年底,产能或许可以达到750~800GW。”

再看需求端。中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华曾预计:2023年,我国光伏新增装机保守预测为95GW,乐观预测为120GW。全球光伏新增装机保守预测为280GW,乐观预测为330GW。

国际知名机构WoodMac预计,2023年中国新增光伏装机容量将达到110GW以上,全球新增装机250GW。这一数据更为保守。
Chinese solar capacity is unreal. 800GW by end of this year and PV association still estimates 95 to 120GW installation this year. What a joke

Here is more on the May explosion in solar capacity
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I will explore it more later
 

pbd456

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weird part is I have not heard of either companies. lol, they just grow like weeds

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Chinese solar capacity is unreal. 800GW by end of this year and PV association still estimates 95 to 120GW installation this year. What a joke

Here is more on the May explosion in solar capacity
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I will explore it more later
How much labor are needed to installed 1GW? They would need to build road in the desert to access remote areas right?

The export market won't be able to absorb much
 

tphuang

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How much labor are needed to installed 1GW? They would need to build road in the desert to access remote areas right?

The export market won't be able to absorb much
They export a lot.

They don't necessarily need to put it all in the deserts. some will go to distributed projects and others will go to rooftops and such. Some PVs will go to green hydrogen projects

We are talking about China here. Everything is cheap to build
 

tphuang

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Never underestimate China's ambition, this is from Shandong province
另一方面,加快发展新能源和可再生能源。谋划实施能源发展九大工程,海上建设3500万千瓦风电基地、4200万千瓦光伏基地,陆上打造3000万千瓦分布式光伏、500万千瓦采煤塌陷区光伏、4800万千瓦鲁北盐碱滩涂地风光储输一体化基地,以及4000万千瓦胶东半岛核电基地,再加上抽水蓄能、先进储能,到2030年全省新能源和可再生能源发电装机规模将突破2亿千瓦、达到煤电装机的两倍。
It has plans for 35GW of offshore wind, 42GW of offshore PV, 30GW of distributed PV, 5GW PV over formerly coal mine area, 48GW wind/PV/storage integrated base & 40GW of nuclear + pumped storage and such.

By 2030, new energy & renewable energy will reach 200GW, 2x coal ming power

another link
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this nuclear base is for real. Talks started of a 10GW+ level nuclear base a year ago
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tphuang

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solar prices in China for both wafers and modules are crashing. Although in terms of wafers, this just reached below January level. Longer term, this should reach lower than ever as silicon ingot capacity goes up and prices come down
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China produced 74 GW of PVs in Q1. I think they installed around 33.6G, so they exported more than half of it
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oh look everyone wants to buy cheap Chinese PV modules
The
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drew around half a million people to the Shanghai New International Expo Center last week: everyone from European utility executives looking for deals on panels to curious tourists hoping to grab some free merchandise.
 

tphuang

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What's behind the wafer prices dropping?
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Well, it's the polysilicon wafer themselves that's just seeing huge collapse in prices due to all the capacity coming online by 2024

Looks like Mono-silicon prices also dropping like mad

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this might be better, collapsing prices all the way around for mono-silicon
followed by falling prices in wafers, cells & modules

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Another one indicating this


Beyond that, just unbelievable amount of investment in May around the time SNEC happened. 217B RMB of investment in different projects
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According to this site. 242.3B RMB investment in May for 168GW wafers, 224GW cells & 133GW modules
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May was a great month for solar
 
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