Climate Change and Renewable Energy News and Discussion

tphuang

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With all the new energy installation, how will it affect the seabourne import of coal oil and LNG?
we won't need them anymore, that's the beauty of this. A lot of China's oil imports are for those refineries that produce petrochemicals. in the even of a conflict, you simply won't need as much petrochemical

in next 10 yrs, effect of additional wind/solar is basically no more need for coal imports & probably much less domestic production. NG still works well for heating, refinery feeds and some electricity. But the #1 thing to cut off is coal usage. With much higher green hydrogen production, there is also less need to produce hydrogen & ammonia from coal & natural gas.

经济评价基准参数根据《风电机经济评价规范》、《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》并结合以往实际风电场运行情况综合考虑计列。其中10万年均经营成本约776万元考虑,50万风场年均经营成本约3245万元考虑(经营成本包括了运营期人工工资及福利、运维修理费、材料费、保险费及其他费用);固定资产折旧时间20年考虑,残值率5%;年利率按照4.3%计列,贷款年限15年
btw, the calculation was done with this condition. 34.5 million RMB annual operating cost for 500MW farm. depreciation & amortization across 20 year & 5%/year. 15 year loan at 4.3% interest rate
 
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tphuang

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more on the conclusion of that direct sea water electrolysis testing.
此次海试首次成功验证了由中国科学家原创的海水无淡化原位直接电解制氢原理与技术在真实海洋环境下,3-8级大风、0.3-0.9米海浪强干扰下依托海上风电实施无淡化海水直接电解制氢的可靠性,构建了与再生能源相结合的一体化海水直接制氢氢工厂,有望打造全球海上可再生能源直接海水制氢领域标杆
They were able to do this in real ocean environment facing level 3 to 8 wind & waves of 0.3 to 0.9 m high. Floating wind power could still do direct electrolysis from sea water.

This is realizing the studies from 和平院士海水制氢研究团队
 

pbd456

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we won't need them anymore, that's the beauty of this. A lot of China's oil imports are for those refineries that produce petrochemicals. in the even of a conflict, you simply won't need as much petrochemical

in next 10 yrs, effect of additional wind/solar is basically no more need for coal imports & probably much less domestic production. NG still works well for heating, refinery feeds and some electricity. But the #1 thing to cut off is coal usage. With much higher green hydrogen production, there is also less need to produce hydrogen & ammonia from coal & natural gas.


btw, the calculation was done with this condition. 34.5 million RMB annual operating cost for 500MW farm. depreciation & amortization across 20 year & 5%/year. 15 year loan at 4.3% interest rate
are you being overly optimistic? according to a chart you posted earlier, wind is 10% solar is 5% currently.
China is forecast to growth electricity consumption by 6% under normal weather condition. ( i think there is a correlation between GDP growth vs electricity consumption growth). with 15% solar + wind currently, even a high rate of installation growth from a low base would not be trivial to overcome the 6% growth of consumption.
 

tphuang

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are you being overly optimistic? according to a chart you posted earlier, wind is 10% solar is 5% currently.
China is forecast to growth electricity consumption by 6% under normal weather condition. ( i think there is a correlation between GDP growth vs electricity consumption growth). with 15% solar + wind currently, even a high rate of installation growth from a low base would not be trivial to overcome the 6% growth of consumption.
I posted my projections here
I expect wind to be 4x what it is now by end of 2030
I expect solar to be 8x what it was at end of 2022 by end of 2030

put something into perspective. expecting 90GW of onshore & 20GW of offshore wind bidding this year. If they get build sometimes in 2025/2026, it would match up well with my expectation of 100GW by end of 2025 and 120GW by end of 2026
 

pbd456

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I posted my projections here
I expect wind to be 4x what it is now by end of 2030
I expect solar to be 8x what it was at end of 2022 by end of 2030

put something into perspective. expecting 90GW of onshore & 20GW of offshore wind bidding this year. If they get build sometimes in 2025/2026, it would match up well with my expectation of 100GW by end of 2025 and 120GW by end of 2026
is 5% demand growth realistic?

does it consider the fact that there are many more EV over the years which will demand more electricity?
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tphuang

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is 5% demand growth realistic?

does it consider the fact that there are many more EV over the years which will demand more electricity?
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well, you used 6%. if you use 6% instead of 5%, the vast vast majority of power based on my model will still be generated with renewables

putting things in perspective. China's top 14 solar firms will have over 400GW of n-type solar cell capacity by the end of this year.
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of course, there is also a lot of p-type solar cell capacity. Combined you are looking at well over 600GW of solar cell capacity by the end of this year

The solar build out is huge. Getting to 600GW of new solar installation/year by 2030 really isn't that difficult based on the amount of solar capacity they already have
 

tphuang

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Tongwei spending 10.5B RMB on 25GW solar cells & 20GW PV modules in Chengdu. All to be complete by 2025

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JA Solar is investing 6B RMB in Ordos to produce 10GW PV modules, 10GW wafers and 30GW crystal (silicon ingot)

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Fukang (xinjiang), next to Urumqi is forming plans for 100GW level PV industrial park

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Another project in Xinjiang for a 600k ton of Photovoltaic quartz sand & 1000k ton of PV grade high-purity quartz sand

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Longi spending another 12.tBillion RB with Xian for expanding production by 20GW n-type silicon rods & 24GW n-type solar cell

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another 1GW of project announced around Jincheng in Shanxi province

There are just so many new plants & projects getting announced
 

pbd456

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I posted my projections here
I expect wind to be 4x what it is now by end of 2030
I expect solar to be 8x what it was at end of 2022 by end of 2030

put something into perspective. expecting 90GW of onshore & 20GW of offshore wind bidding this year. If they get build sometimes in 2025/2026, it would match up well with my expectation of 100GW by end of 2025 and 120GW by end of 2026
Are there a mismatch for solar power generation (which are in inland) vs where power are needed? How much power is loss due to the transmission over long distance?
 

sunnymaxi

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Guohe One, a third-generation nuclear power technology independently developed by China’s State Power Investment Corporation, has driven the rise of many supply chain firms during the course of its development and has brought about the localization of the entire industry supply chain.

An atomic power industry chain system needs complete raw material support and supply, and the construction of this industry chain system has driven the country's entire basic industrial system for materials and equipment, Zheng Mingguang, chief designer of Guohe One, told Yicai Global.

Core technology cannot be bought or sought, several companies in Guohe One’s supply chain said, adding that independent innovation must be relied upon.

Market competition promotes the healthy development of the whole industrial system, Zheng noted, adding that a supply chain set up in a competitive environment lops 20 percent off project costs.

During its research and development, between two and five rival companies took part in the technical development of all the equipment and materials used in the project, continually improving every step from design to manufacturing technology and the production process, Yicai Global learned.

The support plates used in nuclear plant steam generators used to be imported because of special materials and specifications, but during Guohe One’s development, Shanghai Electric Nuclear Power Group worked with China Baowu Steel Group to successfully develop a domestic version.

A 100 percent localization rate can be achieved this year for all parts of Guohe One, Lu Hongzao, SPIC's deputy general manager, was cited as saying by Shanghai Securities News in March.

Private Business Input

“After more than 20 years, China's private companies have made great progress in management, technical capabilities, and R&D investment," according to Zheng. In the supply of key materials and equipment components, private firms have strongly supported Guohe One's supply chain, he added.

The Guohe One core instrument and casing assembly products developed by Zhejiang Lunte Electromechanical, a private developer of temperature measuring instruments, and Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute have filled the domestic technology gap, entered mass production, and provided tools for monitoring the working parameters inside the nuclear reactor.

The alloy 690 U-tube is an important component in the steam generator of nuclear power plants, with demanding requirements for sealing accuracy, corrosion prevention, and radiation protection, and only three companies -- from France, Japan, and Sweden -- were able to produce it.

But under the guidance of SNERDI's design unit, Baoyin Special Steel Tube made the first Chinese atomic power alloy 690 U-tube after several years of development, costing only a third of the imported product.

Guohe One, led by SNERDI, has more than 700 cooperative units and over 31,000 scientific and technological staff members.

The installed power generation capacity of a single Guohe One reactor is 1,500 megawatts, generating 12.5 billion kilowatts of electricity a year, which in turn saves using as much as 4 million tons of standard coal and cuts carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 10 million tons.

Compared with the second-generation reactor type, Gouhe One is 400 times safer, and even in the event of a reactor meltdown, there would be no large-scale release of radioactive materials.
 
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