Re: Chinese sub thread
Well, I know that calculating a plant's floor space is a crude measure crobato, but do you think that Huludao has already a comparable production capacity with Severodvinsk and Groton?:coffee:
During the USSR's heyday of the 60's and 70's Severodvinsk and her satellite works churned out 34 Yankee SSBN in only 8 years ('67-'75). Without doubt PLAN would not try to emulate that kind of low quality mass production...
Nevertheless the impressive new facilities at Huludao should be able to complete a pair of type 094/096 every 24 months.
What is your assessment, crobato?
I would have no idea how many subs the facility can produce. Just because the Soviet Union turned out nuclear subs like hot cakes does not mean you should too. The SU is pouring an ungodly proportion of its GNP into arms, which China is not. There are other limitations, from everything to nuclear fuel supply competing with civilian power generation projects but most importantly, the availability and training of skilled manpower to run the subs.
The SU's pace of production also meant that quality standards are not so well, and sailors paid their lives for it occasionally.
So analogy is not applicable.
But in my opinion, if they are building two more 094s and three more 093s so they can all launch by 2010, it would be possible with this facility, or this facility combined with the old facility, though not with the old facility alone.
I am also thinking about other things. If China's nuke sub program is going full speed ahead, what about the conventional sub program? Will nuke subs make AIP redundant? Does that mean that the PLAN conventionals may not bother with AIP at all? AIP isn't cheap to add to a sub, and if you are setting your conventionals as the low mix to a nuclear sub high mix, there are chances you won't add the AIP at all.
A conventional sub and an nuclear sub doctrine don't really mix well at all. Its like oil and water. Nuclear subs have their own traveling and tactical pace, apart from diesel subs, while diesel subs are on a whole new level in stealth. They can mutually exist but not mutually coordinate. Nuclear subs are more like fleet subs, they can go and run with the rest of the surface fleet. Conventional subs are more like ambushers and living mine fields, they are meant to hunt and kill autonomously without shackling themselves to a surface fleet or the surface fleet shackling to them.
How does it mean for the rest of the PLAN? A PLAN blue water group aircraft carrier and escort group can be followed and paced with SSNs like the 093 but not with Songs, Kilos, and Yuans, which is more or less the underwater version of the Houbei strategy. If 094s go into long range deterrent patrols, they should have at least one or two 093s to escort them. So there should be at least a 2:1 ratio of SSNs to SSBNs. Add to other duties like the one above and the required SSN ratio should go higher.
I take its worth observing how many new Songs and Yuans built vs. 094s and 093s because this is important in determining future PLAN directions and trends. If the blue water fleet comes into mind, in the future nuclear sub production will only increase while conventional sub production can top off.
