Chinese submarines thread

[Violet Oboe]

Re: Chinese sub thread

Dear Crobato you are convinced that 3 type 094 are already around...? That would be ´chinese speed´on the part of Huludao's guys!

Nevertheless, as also Roger has pointed out the interpretation of the recent pics as a second and third unit of type 092 mod/092 G is also intriguing. May be Huludao wanted to test a new ´revolutionary propulsion´on a more readily available sub before going for the real thing in a serial production of 094 and probably 095?

 

[crobato]

Re: Chinese sub thread

Pumpjets are not revolutionary propulsion, rather an old one that is seeing new life on many new nuclear submarines as a solution to reduce noise further, though this solution seems limited for nuclear submarines for now, due to its weight and drag issues. Torpedoes like the Yu-6 use pumpjets, which is another term for ducted propellers.

However, the system is a first for China.

I should note that the subs in Huludao, one appears to have its propulsion removed, while the other has it. Its possible both subs might have the same propulsion type, which is pumpjet in my opinion.

Going back to my theory why one 091G might be a new sub is this. Note the picture of the Xia in drydock. That image of Qingdao also has 3 Hans in the bay. This picture is said to be taken in 2005 according to FAS. During April of 2005, the 091G was stationed in Hainan, not Qingdao, according to Huitong, a fact shown by photographs. We must also add that by 2005, both Han 401 and 402 have been retired, leaving only 3 of the original Hans.

So you have 3 Hans in Qingdao, and one in Hainan? Since the picture of the Xia showed the sub being seriously opened up, it must have taken some time to reach that point, meaning it would have spent some time already on dock. And given its state, its not leaving anytime soon. In late 2004, the Xia was still moored in one of the piers, so this picture had to occur by the fall of 2005 at least.

 

[Roger604]

Re: Chinese sub thread

Looking at your new comparison pic, crobato, it's striking that the BOTTOM TWO subs look different from the top two. In fact, the first is the shortest / smallest (measuring from the point where the body the sub ends and the propulsion / fins begin). The second is somewhat longer. The bottom two are the same length, though like you said, it looks like the third one has the casing on its pump jet removed.

It seems to me the second (Dalian) is a modified Xia-class, while the bottom two are Jin-class.

Edited: it appears on a closer look that the bottom 3 are all identical. The Dalian sub is lower in the water, that's all.

 

[xuansu]

Re: Chinese sub thread

It seems to me the second (Dalian) is a modified Xia-class, while the bottom two are Jin-class.

that would be incorrect. The second boat is the same as the two on the bottom. It is just sitting lower in the water, so the tail is not as visible. But the faint line is still there and it is of the same length as the bottom two. The first one should be the 092, because the missile compartment seems shorter than the others.

These pictures proves that there are at least two 094. We can't say three for certain because there's no time on the picture, so we don't know if one of the two at Huludao is the same one at Qingdao.

 

[crobato]

Re: Chinese sub thread

They are all modified Xia-class, but that does not mean they cannot merit a new classification. I look at the comparisons and the proportions of all the subs including the docked Xia are all similar.

I agree that the Huludao boats are sitting higher in the water, well above the water line. At the restudy of the picture, it appears that one of the subs had its propulsion unit removed.

I cannot say for certain that the Dalian boat uses a pumpjet as the waterline is too high that the water conceals it. I do note that the Dalian sub has a different blow hole than the ones in Huludao.

Its not conclusive to say there is three 094s, but there is nothing to also prove that one of the Huludao subs is also the same one in Dalian.

In my impression, the ones in Huludao have been taking their trials in the Bohai sea, creating that red look in it, which is due to the red silt. Subs that have been going around in the Bohai have this reddish color. The one in Dalian have passed that stage, so that as a result, it is deployed near the main hub of the North Sea Fleet. Remember, Qingdao, which is nearby, is the main center of NSF sub operations.

 

[crobato]

Re: Chinese sub thread

I am going to rethink about the pumpjet. It lacks the ventral fin above the cylinder so this suggests that the cylinder is on top of the fin, though the ventral fin is shortened so the tube is near and just above the water line. I don't know if this represents some revolutionary propulsion unit because if it is one, I can think of nothing else but an MHD.

It can indeed be a TAS, but I think there is a possibility it may also be a communications buoy.

According to SOC's analysis in his blog

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"Further analysis of the available imagery would seem to suggest that there are in fact now three distinct examples of Jin-class SSBNs in existance. The two submarines at Huludao are riding higher in the water than the example at Xiaopingdao, suggesting that they are newer hulls still in the process of being fitted out, while the Xiaopingdao hull is in a near-operational state as evidenced by its greater gross weight denoted by the fact that it is riding lower in the water. The presence of various items pierside of the two Huludao hulls would suggest that this specific pier is designated for the fitting out of newly-produced submarines, an interesting fact to note for further analysis in the future when newer imagery of the area becomes available."

I must add that the image at Dalian with the 094 sub is indeed updated. The Jin and the Golf is still there, but in the new image, the Golf now has a tug next to it along with a patrol vessel/

 

[tphuang]

Re: Chinese sub thread

I am going to rethink about the pumpjet. It lacks the ventral fin above the cylinder so this suggests that the cylinder is on top of the fin, though the ventral fin is shortened so the tube is near and just above the water line. I don't know if this represents some revolutionary propulsion unit because if it is one, I can think of nothing else but an MHD.

It can indeed be a TAS, but I think there is a possibility it may also be a communications buoy.

According to SOC's analysis in his blog

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"Further analysis of the available imagery would seem to suggest that there are in fact now three distinct examples of Jin-class SSBNs in existance. The two submarines at Huludao are riding higher in the water than the example at Xiaopingdao, suggesting that they are newer hulls still in the process of being fitted out, while the Xiaopingdao hull is in a near-operational state as evidenced by its greater gross weight denoted by the fact that it is riding lower in the water. The presence of various items pierside of the two Huludao hulls would suggest that this specific pier is designated for the fitting out of newly-produced submarines, an interesting fact to note for further analysis in the future when newer imagery of the area becomes available."

I must add that the image at Dalian with the 094 sub is indeed updated. The Jin and the Golf is still there, but in the new image, the Golf now has a tug next to it along with a patrol vessel/

according to a big shrimp on chinese bbs.
launched as of 2005
3 094 and 5 093
and by 2010
5 094 and 8 093/095
at least that would make the 3 094 part more credible at least.
The other claim is that TWO 092s are getting converted into SSGN, I guess we will see.

 

[Skywatcher]

Re: Chinese sub thread

But wouldn't the PLAN want a higher ratio of SSNs to SSBNs? 093s will have other priorities than simply escorting the 094s around.

 

[Roger604]

Re: Chinese sub thread

according to a big shrimp on chinese bbs.
launched as of 2005
3 094 and 5 093
and by 2010
5 094 and 8 093/095
at least that would make the 3 094 part more credible at least.
The other claim is that TWO 092s are getting converted into SSGN, I guess we will see.

Oh wow, that's amazing!

They probably first made a pair of Type 093's that are sort of modified Han's. (Perhaps at the Victor III class technology level.) Then another pair that continues the evolution. (Perhaps at the improved Victor III technology level.) Then by 2005, they have one "serial production" variant of Type 093. This is probably the one shown in the video at the exhibition. The serial production variant is probably at the improved Akula level.

What's really strange is that looking at the numbers, it suggests at most only two more Type 093's will be built between 2005 and 2010. They may already have been finished by now (end of 2007). That means the next submarine will be the Type 095! Undoubtedly, it is under construction.

In other words, 2 additional Type 094's and 3 additional Type 093's between 2005 and 2010 seem quite low. It suggests that they will be built rather early on (maybe 2006, 2007, 2008). Then there will be a halt in shipbuilding while the next generation Type 095/096 is under construction. So the next generation will be launched by 2009/2010 for the Type 095 and 2010/2011 for the Type 096.

 

[crobato]

Re: Chinese sub thread

My take is this.

Bill Gertz mentioned in an article in December 6, 1999 about a second unfinished Xia, but in a sort of passing way without elaborating on it, the focus being more on the 093 and 094.

The way I see the 094s is that they're evolutions of the Xia, rather than a revolution, but applying a lot more quieting technologies such as rubber tilling, 2nd or 3rd generation nuclear reactor, skewed prop, probably direct shafted (without reduction gear box), more turbine and powerplant insulation, a quieter sinkhole pattern (by disrupting the lines, you produce smaller noises rather than one big noise). I think there is some merit in it, in a broad way, both the Xia and the Han are not bad designs. Just the implementation was.

At this point, it is harder to tell where the Xia ends and where the Jin starts.

I won't be surprised if the Xia and if there are two of them, are converted to SSGNs. I think the PLAN needs SSGNs, more than they need SSBMs. Take a look at a JL-1. How many YJ-8x missiles you can fit if you made a cluster that would fit this missile's diameter? Probably four. If you have 12 cannisters on the Xia, you are looking at potentially a swarm of at least 48 AshMs just in one go.

My own estimate of 093s is about three. Two of the early type with the planes on the sail, and the third with the planes on the bow. A fourth may already be underway or even launched. Unlike the relationship of the Jin to the Xia, the 093 is an all new hull design with corresponding technologies.

I believe there are at least one to two 091G, one probably actually a new sub and being the prototype. This sub is also used as a testbed for 093 technologies so its similarity to the Hans is only hull-skin deep. I think the remaining Hans (403 to 405) may be converted to the 091G configuration. I suspect these conversions can be done at the Qingdao dock, taking turns, while Huludao is busy with making new 093 and 094.

I am going to raise the number of Songs to 20 by 2010, probably 16 by now. As for the Yuans, I think there is three, and it would four by the end of this year. I think the PLAN is quite happy with the Song, the final version being a home run for them, and they will keep producing it until they are satisfied that the Yuan can surpass it.

How many YJs can you fit if you make this into a cluster cannister?