By Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson
Eight key themes, listed sequentially below, characterize China’s rise as a world-class military shipbuilder:
1. China’s warship buildout thus far supports modernization and replacement, not rapid expansion
2. Chinese military shipbuilders are catching up to Russian and U.S. Yards
3. China’s military shipbuilders are using modular mass production techniques
4. China’s military shipyards appear to be sharing design and production information across company lines
5. China’s military shipbuilders will be able to indigenously build aircraft carriers
6. China will retain a military shipbuilding cost advantage
7. China’s neighbors feel increasingly compelled to augment their naval forces in response to Chinese warship production
8. China now has the potential to become a significant exporter of diesel submarines and smaller surface warships
The authors speculate that the top-3 candidate yards to build China's indigenous aircraft carriers:
- CSIC Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry complex near Huludao
- Changxing Island yard
- CSIC’s Dalian yard
Comments: I'm curious about what yardsticks the authors are using when they claimed China's military shipbuilding capabilities will be as good as Russia's are now by 2020, and near US's current level by 2030. Are they talking about quality and the level of technical sophistication of the major capital warships, such nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers?
