Chinese semiconductor thread II

gadgetcool5

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By the way, he also posted last February a graphic showing that SMEE in 2024 had only achieved a first generation microlithographic lens equivalent to what Nikon had achieved in 1981. I'm not sure what his source was. Later on though, @measuredingabens told him a Chinese supplier had delivered 15 stages of wafers sets, implying use for 15 lithography machines, which included sets for dry-ArF. That would put China around the 2002-2004 era, about 15 years behind ASML's first generation EUV. That lines up with SMEE's 90nm lithography tool from 2016.
 
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gadgetcool5

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People just don't understand that the speed of a project is determined by the amount of resources that the state can pour into it. And China can pour a lot of resources into a single project.

Using their own logic, the US crewed moon landing are fake. After all, America was years behind the Soviets in the space race, with the soviets taking very impressive milestones like first orbital launch, first living thing in orbit, first human in space, first robotic probe to land on the moon etc etc. All while America was basically building it's entire space program from the ground up. How the hell was America going to catch up to the soviets, who had such a large head start? And yet, due to the insane amount of resources America was pouring in, they still managed to outpace the soviets and land on the moon, all within 12 years of the space race starting. Even today, in 2025, no other nation has managed a human lunar landing and even America itself is struggling to return to the moon. Not because it's impossible or even that difficult with modern technology, but because nobody wants to spend the hundreds of billions needed to build everything up.

When China does get EUV within the next few years, it's gonna be the same thing.

"How the fuck did you catch up so fast?"
"Money"

But that's my point though. Space travel technology was not 60 years old in the 1960s. Space travel was a new technology that didn't have very strong moats, so even though the U.S. was behind, it could easily catch up. That is equivalent to where quantum computing is today. It has fewer, weaker moats and would take less effort to catch up to the Americans, so Chinese efforts would be better spent there.
 

tokenanalyst

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Second, he says a lithography prototype is worthless without matching tools. For example, EUV requires pellicle-free handling, vacuum-compatible storage, and defects inspection tools that are drastically different from DUV. How dod these tools get created? He says it took decades of experience in KrF, ArF, wet and dry tools to create these.
IDK if you have been following this thread but most of the patent we have posted here since 2022 is inspection tools for EUV. And the only way for China for have mask inspection tools is IF they have a already an EUV machine working. Mask need a reticle stage which have to match the optics. is inevitable. Is crazy the people just ignore that.

They already designed and tested vacuum wafer handling tools for EUV when they tested their first EUV stepper like 10 years ago. And vaccum wafer handling is not exclusive of EUV.


And even at the DUV level, if you make a lithography machine that is not compatible with the other tooling in the fab, it can't be used. For example, Nikon is stuck at a 10% market share for its mature node lithography machines because they are not compatible with ASML tooling that most fabs already have installed. ASML's moat includes an ecosystem advantage at this point.
That is why SMEE developed this tool:

1742267611607.png
This tool along with software algorithms is what you use to match the tools
ASML give you tools to make to process between their scanners easier but is not impossible for the fab to use their tools to match different scanners.

Fudan University is giving a entire conference about the subject this month.
1742268113259.png
Also, he says SMEE's 28nm lithography tool isn't in use for volume production because it needs an immersion scanner for the "other layers", since 28nm needs immersion lithography for the smallest layers. And if you don't have immersion lithography technology, you can't do 28m.
That make no sense, SMEE has been iterating their immersion scanner since 45nm and once you have the immersion scanner you can print any layer that make sense with it before you use KrF scanners to print the rest.

And looks like China Immersion scanners has been designed to be as compatible with ASML as possible.
Essentially, he points out that lithography development is an iterative process and you can't just magically skip steps. Then he asks at what step China currently is. KrF? ArF? I-line? You need the answers to these questions and due to opacity, we don't have them.
From my findings that already posted here I know that their scanners are already patterning wafers in mass production, in domestics lines and testing lines.
As much as want China to be transparent in this subject just for the laughs, it doesn't serve China interests, even Naura and Amec are not publishing their research anymore. Everything is becoming a black box even for the Chinese public less alone for foreigners.

We have seen everything here,EVERY single deposition tool, 3 ion implanters for advanced processes, EVERY F*cking metrology tool under the sun, CMP, etching tools, KingSEMI 400 WPH ArFi track tool and the list go on. But lithography is when people draw the line because the REAL evidence we posted here is less valid than the opinion of some random stooge in twitter who may not getting is facts right and is ignoring a lot of stuff.

I AM NOT 100% SURE but the evidence tell me that China is already in for the mass production of dry and immersion tools. And they are in advance stage in their EUV tools.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
By the way, he also posted in February a graphic showing that SMEE in 2024 had only achieved a first generation microlithographic lens equivalent to what Nikon had achieved in 1981. I'm not sure what his source was. Later on though, @measuredingabens told him a Chinese supplier had delivered 15 stages of wafers sets, implying use for 15 lithography machines, which included sets for dry-ArF. That would put China around the 2002-2004 era, about 15 years behind ASML's first generation EUV. That lines up with SMEE's 90nm lithography tool from 2016.
Looking at this guy twitter history, he posted a research paper that SMEE posted in 2011 and like most of these guys he extrapolated as IF is valid in 2024, which makes no sense at all.
 

antwerpery

Junior Member
Registered Member
But that's my point though. Space travel technology was not 60 years old in the 1960s. Space travel was a new technology that didn't have very strong moats, so even though the U.S. was behind, it could easily catch up. That is equivalent to where quantum computing is today. It has fewer, weaker moats and would take less effort to catch up to the Americans, so Chinese efforts would be better spent there.
1) Quantum computing will only be useful in very niche areas, it's not worth it. Quantum computing cannot replace conventional computers, not in this century, no matter how much resources you pour into it.

2) EUV, like a lot of other very complex technologies, will lift up up other technologies and companies that could be used for many other applications. Becoming forced to make the precision optics/mirrors/lens to the tolerance needed for the EUV machine, also means that you now are able to make extremely good optics/mirrors/lens that can be used for many other applications. Much like how the space race was basically the ICBM race, you got good at rockets because you needed them for nuclear delivery, now you can use them for all sorts of tasks unrelated to their intended goal like landing humans on the moon, or the amount of spinoff technologies that NASA has also produced as a side effect of the hundreds of billion poured into the space age.

3) The lead that the soviets had in the initial stages of the space race huge. America was basically starting from scratch, none of the basic infrastructure was in place, at least China has some presence in the lithography space for years, as small as it is. And what of 2025? Space is mature field, yet nobody has landed on the Moon for 60 years, even America is unable to go back. That's a pretty large moat that America crossed in the 1960s.

4) You are correct that China will be wiser to try different methods instead of just blindly chasing ASML. But that's basically what they are doing. They are trying lots of different methods, from different sources of EUV light, to chiplets and packaging, next generation semiconductor materials other than silicon, photonic chips, electron beam lithography/nanoimprint lithography etc etc.

The one thing I would say is that while China is trying everything, I do wish that they gave more funding into the more unconventional ideas like SSMB EUV or nanoimprint lithography or next generation materials like 2D nanosheets. While they are given funding and being worked on, it's clear that large bulk of research and attention is on the more conventional path that is just trying to replicate ASML and the current state of the entire semiconductor industry.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
Looking at this guy twitter history, he posted a research paper that SMEE posted in 2011 and like most of these guys he extrapolated as IF is valid in 2024, which makes no sense at all.

Thanks. The guy @BoraTas replied to him last year saying his claim was about SMEE's backend scanners and that they have had a .75 NA lens for years, and he didn't deny it... he just bragged about how many bookmarks and impressions he got and is promoting his news aggressor website. He got asked again today if he still agreed with his assessment from last year about the SMEE lens and he again dodged the question. I think this guy is knowledgeable but I'm getting ever so slight troll vibes as well.
 

BoraTas

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Thanks. The guy @BoraTas replied to him last year saying his claim was about SMEE's backend scanners and that they have had a .75 NA lens for years, and he didn't deny it... he just bragged about how many bookmarks and impressions he got and is promoting his news aggressor website. He got asked again today if he still agreed with his assessment from last year about the SMEE lens and he again dodged the question. I think this guy is knowledgeable but I'm getting ever so slight troll vibes as well.
That guy is a fraud and he isn't hvpc. Me and especially @latenlazy have argued against that guy once. He was insisting that NA in optics was about the mirror size. That is not true and NA is one of the first things optics specialists learn. He kept on doubling down despite people posting resources. Then he broke down and posted a self-aggrandizing Tweet series. He then stalked latenlazy for months.

We believe he is a marketer in an SME company at best. A total fraud at worst. What's certain though, he is no engineer related to lithography and he isn't close to any such person. He has massive character defects too. Ignore.
 

tokenanalyst

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Thanks. The guy @BoraTas replied to him last year saying his claim was about SMEE's backend scanners and that they have had a .75 NA lens for years, and he didn't deny it... he just bragged about how many bookmarks and impressions he got and is promoting his news aggressor website. He got asked again today if he still agreed with his assessment from last year about the SMEE lens and he again dodged the question. I think this guy is knowledgeable but I'm getting ever so slight troll vibes as well.
go to scihub and find the paper, I think people think that China doesn't move, like they developed a 0.75 NA projection system and stopped in 2011.
The first Arf dry scanner in China had a resolution 130nm, then was lowered to 90nm and now 65nm, as I calculated before the NA should be now around 0.90 close to ASML dry scanners. They don't sleep in the laurels with this thing and less now that they have the support of SMIC,CXMT and YMTC.
 

antwerpery

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thabks. The guy @BoraTas replied to him last year saying his claim was about SMEE's backend scanners and that they have had a .75 NA lens for years, and he didn't deny it... he just bragged about how many bookmarks and impressions he got and is promoting his news aggressor website. He got asked again today if he still agreed with his assessment from last year about the SMEE lens and he again dodged the question. I think this guy is knowledgeable but I'm getting ever so slight troll vibes as well.
That guy is a fraud and he isn't hvpc. Me and especially @latenlazy have argued against that guy once. He was insisting that NA in optics was about the mirror size. That is not true and NA is one of the first things optics specialists learn. He kept on doubling down despite people posting resources. Then he broke down and posted a self-aggrandizing Tweet series. He then stalked latenlazy for months.

We believe he is a marketer in an SME company at best. A total fraud at worst. What's certain though, he is no engineer related to lithography and he isn't close to any such person.
Who the fuck cares, better for the world to underestimate China until Techinsights actually has a Chinese 2nm GPU in their lab for a teardown. All the China doomers are actually a good thing for China, by feeding the public and the government misinformation. Just look at the amount of shit China has gotten away with due to the whole 'There's no way China can innovate, they are 20 years behind us, this sanctions will finish them for good' attitude that results in piecemeal sanctions that just motivate the chinese semiconductor sector more, rather than an actually massive sanction package early on that could actually hurt China.

I also used to get angry at all the misinformation, chinese doomers and all the 'China is close to collapse, China is 20 years behind" but now I actively cheer the misinformation on, since it's not just the public that's affect but the highest level of government. Underestimating China is a national pastime for America.

Would Nixon have warmed ties with China and opened China up if he knew that China had the potential to be a peer superpower? Would America have shipped all her low-mid tier manufacturing and IP to China if they knew that China would quickly becoming a peer competitor in basically every field, instead of remaining as a low wage sweatshop forever? Would Trump/Biden have slapped piecemeal sanctions on China if they knew that China would contanstly innvovate their way out and just get stronger? If America didn't contastly underesimate China, they would have done a lot more to stop her rise. Trump could have slapped the mother of all sanction packages on China in 2018, restricting everything and stopping the semiconductor industry cold before they could scale up if they actually treated China seriously.
 

Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
That guy is a fraud and he isn't hvpc. Me and especially @latenlazy have argued against that guy once. He was insisting that NA in optics was about the mirror size. That is not true and NA is one of the first things optics specialists learn. He kept on doubling down despite people posting resources. Then he broke down and posted a self-aggrandizing Tweet series. He then stalked latenlazy for months.

We believe he is a marketer in an SME company at best. A total fraud at worst. What's certain though, he is no engineer related to lithography and he isn't close to any such person. He has massive character defects too. Ignore.
Keep up the good work.

I know these people are probably arguing in bad faith and will still be saying China can't do this and that even after the thing is already out. So its a waste of time for these guys. But there are many who are genuinely interested and it would be ashame to just let them be conned from hearing one side only.

Anyway maybe this guy hasn't been up to date with the current world but these days things are moving really damn fast. Stuff that should have taken China years to do are now getting done in say 9 months. We are at a stage where due to technology advancement and AI, everything just develops a lot faster.

The secret to ASML was created by some Taiwanese dude from Vietnam. Its not some secret magic alientech. There has to be a way to crack it. Or maybe even better find an alternative method to it.
 
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