Chinese semiconductor thread II

Blitzo

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I hope this is not stepping out of bounds to ask this question, but why should anyone put stock in rumors?

Anyway, he retweets/interacts with people like Dylan Patel and Jordan Schneider. Definitely part of the blob.

It isn't out of bounds, but it is bizarre to ask.

The answer is: rumours, when tracked competently, give us months if not years of forward warning of developments that are not accessible through "mainstream" channels and means.
Rumours are only as good as those who can identify the credible from the rubbish.

For people who do not have the ability and experience to identify credible from rubbish, they are welcome to -- in fact I would say they are obliged to -- be respectful in their ignorance and to observe and learn in silence from their betters.


I've compared tracking Chinese semiconductor efforts to PLA watching, and I mean it quite seriously. Imagine doing PLA watching without the rumour grapevine.
 

tphuang

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Btw, what are these so called rumors? I think we mostly follow real news here. The only non news that I have taken as somewhat of gospel is what havok and hvpc said. Of course, not all of what they said but stuff that I think they are likely to know well. And they are often proven right.

everything else we talk about like u precision, guowang, euv patent, SMIC production, domestic sme and such are all based on real sources. Can anyone point out what rumors we are actually taking seriously here? It’s not my fault that people outside of SDF aren’t following Chinese news as much as people here
 

latenlazy

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Btw, what are these so called rumors? I think we mostly follow real news here. The only non news that I have taken as somewhat of gospel is what havok and hvpc said. Of course, not all of what they said but stuff that I think they are likely to know well. And they are often proven right.

everything else we talk about like u precision, guowang, euv patent, SMIC production, domestic sme and such are all based on real sources. Can anyone point out what rumors we are actually taking seriously here? It’s not my fault that people outside of SDF aren’t following Chinese news as much as people here
I mean the Huawei 7 nm stuff was all from the grapevine too. So is a lot of the information we’ve been following on the EUV project. But to your point it’s not like we take all these unverified sources literally.

Ultimately the point is rumors from sources with reliable records are useful guideposts we can then corroborate with other more immediately verifiable information. And this method of information gathering and sorting works just fine so long as we don’t jump on every new rumour as the divine word of god.
 

tokenanalyst

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This is a timelapse of Sagittarius A, at least with this technique the supermassive black hole is not visible because do not emit enough light to contrast agaisnt the background as the hypervelocity stars do, so in order to estimate the position of black hole and do measurements astronomers studied all the movement close to the object.
SgrA2018.gif
 

tonyget

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I mean the Huawei 7 nm stuff was all from the grapevine too. So is a lot of the information we’ve been following on the EUV project.

Nope. The Huawei 7nm chip is verified by electronmicroscope analysis from real product,whereas the EUV project is really grapevine. These two things are not comparable
 

Blitzo

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Nope. The Huawei 7nm chip is verified by electronmicroscope analysis from real product,whereas the EUV project is really grapevine. These two things are not comparable

No, what he is saying is that the credible rumours of Huawei's 7nm process emerged on the grapevine, years before proof or independent confirmation of it occurred.

It is comparable in the sense that if one is wanting "independent confirmation" or "proof" for credible rumours then you will always have a time delay. The issue is all about being able to identify credible rumours and formulate them to reach a reasonable conclusion or projection in context of other information.
 

latenlazy

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Not sure if this has been posted. Summary on euv objective and illumination optical designs. They claim their NA .33 and anamorphic High-NA .55 designs to be on par with Zeiss. The first author seems to be a key figure in duv and euv optic design.
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Clearly fake. The Chinese can’t even make the super advanced high precision sci fi level mirrors how could they design an optical system without that basic prerequisite.
 
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