Name me some TSMC low end chips inside China.
They are insignificant.
China IC revenue in 2024 reach over $170Billion
Never mind... Beating a dead horse here.
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Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
- Start date
They are insignificant.
China IC revenue in 2024 reach over $170Billion
Never mind... Beating a dead horse here.
I said competing on the global market, the one that is nearly . A much larger market is the complete opposite of insignificant, which is why all the domestic companies from Huawei to BYD put so much effort into competing internationally. Where do you think all those exports are going? What kind of loser gives up just because he is behind now, instead of fighting his way to the top? You think Huawei and BYD were always at the top?
Never mind indeed, you haven't said a single correct thing this whole time.
The TSMC R&D chief is not wrong. But only among American allies. He assumes there will be no competitor coming out of Japan, SKorea or the West. China will be locked out of those places regardless of how well it does in the high end nodes.
The rest of the world do not demand high end nodes right now with exception of China.
Once upon a time, the rest of the world did not demand solar cells -- with the exception of China. The West, especially the US and Germany, made expensive ones that only the West could afford.
Then China made so many so efficiently that not only was it affordable enough to first satisfy its own market but it made this once expensive item affordable the world over. China had created a market outside West for solar cells. And even though the US had blocked Chinese solar cells for years China came to dominate 90% of the global photovoltaic production line.
You can try to keep your own market expensive like an island to support your companies but eventually the global tide will overwhelm you because you cannot dam the ocean.
China can (or will) gradually make chips first in the legacy nodes and then the high end ones (once the domestic EUV or SSMB arrives) so inexpensive that it can or will create the same global tide in semicons too.
China can (or will) do this in just supporting its own market because that market is so vast that once China steps on any rung of the technology ladder its economy of scale will make anything affordable.
And with semicons, the Chinese domestic market for chips is much, much larger than the domestic market for solar cells when China began its march to dominance in that sector.
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alright cut this out guys. You are not getting anywhere with this argument. Frankly it's a waste of thread space.
Huixi Technology unveils a pretty compelling ADAS chip.
Behind Nio, Nvidia, Huawei and Horizon.
I seems to remember China spent 100B USD on semi-equipment last year, I cannot believe that both Intel, Samsung and China combined were not able to put a dent on TSMC's revenue.
Full disclosure: I was shorting TSMC and got burned.
why did not China print another 100B USD into semi and crash Taiwan's semi once for all is beyond me, it's much cheaper than invasion.
Full disclosure: I was shorting TSMC and got burned.
why did not China print another 100B USD into semi and crash Taiwan's semi once for all is beyond me, it's much cheaper than invasion.
It's winner take all and as long as Apple and Qualcomm chips are the most widespread foundry made chips, and they use TSMC as their foundry, everyone else without a captive market starves.
Samsung foundry is likely in the toughest spot. SMIC has locked in customers, Intel is its own customer, but TSMC has the big orders, and Samsung only has its own Exynos line (for foundry, separate from memory). And most customers don't like Exynos. And they're the ones who tried hardest to all in on EUV, which was a huge investment.
It will take time. The Chinese chip makers are still ramping up their production facilities. Of TSMC's business only half their revenue comes from so called legacy chips. The biggest companies hit in Taiwan will be UMC and Powerchip. You can already see the initial signs here with UMC's revenues shrinking over the past quarter.
On the high end due to Samsung's continuous fumbles I think their biggest threat is Intel. But even Intel is having a cash crunch and is scaling back its fab investments. It remains to be seen how much capacity they will have left to sell to 3rd parties after supplying their own demand.
On the high end due to Samsung's continuous fumbles I think their biggest threat is Intel. But even Intel is having a cash crunch and is scaling back its fab investments. It remains to be seen how much capacity they will have left to sell to 3rd parties after supplying their own demand.
There is no direct competition between them in high-end nodes between TSMC and SMIC due to market access barriers. Its not like TSMC can sell its high-end nodes into China market, or SMIC can sell its high-end nodes in Western markets.
Huawei toppled Apple as #1 flagship China market share with **only** DUV 7nm, then even accessing a prototype EUV at 5nm will game-changing for Huawei. Absolutely game changing. Also, China is the world's largest semiconductor and mobile phone market, so the weight of a captive market favors SMIC, even without EUV yield parity or scale.
Huawei toppled Apple as #1 flagship China market share with **only** DUV 7nm, then even accessing a prototype EUV at 5nm will game-changing for Huawei. Absolutely game changing. Also, China is the world's largest semiconductor and mobile phone market, so the weight of a captive market favors SMIC, even without EUV yield parity or scale.
Why are we assuming there would be fair competition between SMIC - even a SMIC on the cutting edge - and TSMC in international markets? If we're talking about the mid-2030s timeframe when SMIC would be on the cutting edge of semiconductor manufacturing with enough volume to service the world market, we should also bear in mind that the balance of power vis-a-vis the US and China will be radically different than it is today.
We're talking about a China with ~1500 fifth gens, a 6th gen well into production, 50+ SSNs, H-20s, a complete strategic deterrent, etc. China can exert an enormous amount of pressure on Taiwan to accept restrictions on TSMC's activities, like "voluntary" production curbs a la Plaza Accords and sanctions on US companies that fab their chips at TSMC.
We're talking about a China with ~1500 fifth gens, a 6th gen well into production, 50+ SSNs, H-20s, a complete strategic deterrent, etc. China can exert an enormous amount of pressure on Taiwan to accept restrictions on TSMC's activities, like "voluntary" production curbs a la Plaza Accords and sanctions on US companies that fab their chips at TSMC.