The top five chip equipment manufacturers are showing off: they cannot do without the Chinese market, with 43% of their revenue coming from China
In the chip industry, although design, manufacturing, packaging and testing are important, above these three key links are EDA/IP, semiconductor equipment, and semiconductor materials.
These three items are the most upstream industries in the chip industry. Without these three items, no matter who you are, you cannot design or manufacture chips. Without EDA/IP, you cannot design them; without equipment and materials, you cannot manufacture them.
These three items are mainly controlled by the United States, Japan and Europe, and they basically follow the lead of the United States.
Therefore, in recent years, the United States has suppressed China's semiconductor industry mainly by restricting semiconductor equipment. After all, once the equipment from the United States, Japan, and Europe is not allowed to be sold to China, China will not be able to manufacture chips because China's own equipment is not up to the task for the time being.
However, the US restrictions on these semiconductor equipment manufacturers selling equipment to China have also had a huge impact on these manufacturers.
Because a large part of these manufacturers' revenue comes from China, especially in recent years, the global chip industry has been in recession, and only China has been expanding production on a large scale, and demand has increased significantly, resulting in nearly half of their revenue coming from China.
In the first half of 2024, the top five semiconductor equipment manufacturers in the world continued to announce data on their revenue sources, which was equivalent to a complete showdown: that is, they are currently inseparable from the Chinese market, and about 44% of their revenue comes from China.
The meaning is very clear, which is to tell the United States that if they do not sell equipment to China, they will suffer heavy losses and cannot bear it.
The five major chip equipment manufacturers are ASML of the Netherlands, Applied Materials of the United States, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron of Japan, and KLA-Tencor of the United States.
The revenue of these five major equipment manufacturers in the first and second quarters of 2024, compared with the first quarter of 2023, is shown in the figure above. It can be seen that except for ASML, all of them are growing in 2024 compared with 2023.
Let’s first look at ASML. In the first and second quarters of 2024, mainland China contributed 49% of its revenue in both quarters, which is close to half.
Let’s look at Applied Materials in the United States. In the first quarter, mainland China contributed 43% of its revenue, and in the second quarter it contributed 32%. Mainland China has always been its largest customer.
Next, let’s look at Lam Research. In the first quarter, mainland China contributed 42% of its revenue, which fell to 39% in the second quarter. Mainland China has always been its largest customer.
Let’s take a look at Japan’s Tokyo Electron. In the first quarter, mainland China accounted for 47.4% of its revenue, and in the second quarter it was 49.9%, which means that mainland China accounted for half of its revenue.
Data from American company CoreLogic shows that in the second quarter of 2024, mainland China accounted for 44% of its revenue, far ahead of other countries and regions, and China was its largest customer.
Based on these five major manufacturers, it can be calculated that in the first half of 2024, the revenue contributed by mainland China accounted for about 43% of these five major manufacturers. China supports half of these five major chip equipment.
Therefore, for these five major chip equipment manufacturers, if they do not sell equipment to China, the losses will be really heavy. These five major manufacturers continue to publish these data, in fact, they are also telling the United States not to impose restrictions, otherwise everyone will be in trouble.