The only way out is to exclude any and all US technology from your product. And even then as we well know these governments are puppets of the US and will do its bidding anyway.
Right now they can't get the European and Japanese companies to comply, so they sanction it on their own thinking this might be enough. When it isn't they will just turn on the screws and force them to comply.
I'm thinking ASML may use RS LASER replacing CYMER , Gigaphoton might use Chinese components as its much cheaper.IIRC, when the US first started using the Foreign Direct Product Rule to restrict sales by non-US companies to China, the restrictions initially only applied to items where US content is above certain threshold (25%?). Many of the targeted non-US companies quickly updated their products to replace some US components with non-US ones to go under the initial FDPR threshold set by the US. It was only after that the US set the FDPR threshold to 0% for semiconductor equipment sales to China. Is my recollection correct?
I suspect one reason why the US is now giving FDPR exemptions to some non-US companies now is because these companies are threatening to completely drop all their US suppliers and are likely to succeed doing so if they tried.
Banning software is ridiculous and done by people who really don't understand how things works, most of the core technologies in software development are open source and free to download.the part about EDA on entity list is the dumbest thing. What can you possibly do to stop software makers from using your technology?
But good thing that AMEC has a plan to go fully domestic on their parts sourcing. It's necessary.
The next phase of high percentage of growth will be Chinese sub-systems, parts and materials manufacturers. Than again, it will blowback to the stooges faces pretty nice because these companies are going to sell the products in the international market once they conquer the Chinese domestic market, in the near future AMAT, KLA and LAM will be buying Chinese components for their products even if they are not made in the mainland per se.They could make it harder for Chinese companies to develop or commercialize plugins or add ons for US EDA software.
But this will also mean those companies will move their product to a Chinese EDA platform instead.
Both AMEC and Naura have been doing this over the past two years I think. Probably all Chinese semi tool vendors have similar programs.
This might be a reaction to ASML telling them they won't follow sanctions if they are increased. They were quite open about this. Maybe they lobbied to maneuver to ensure monopoly.
I'm quite skeptical on this point.
Best time to short them...
Punishing US firms and saving foreign firms? Who buys that?
I instead believe this.
They want ASML to stop servicing China installed base. This is the only move that can have a sizeable impact today in 2024....but the outcome of such "nuclear option" is unclear. There are thousands of ASML service employees in China that can go "freelance" at any time...and regarding spare parts, they are not made of Kryptonite: thinking that China will collapse because they can not replace broken spare parts is an illusion.
EDIT: I missed this from the original :
I'd guess this will be the time we will see the banning of Chinese SME firms: Naura, AMEC, etc..
Definitely this doesn't come unexpected, they had plenty of time to prepare themselves to this unavoidable day.
It also wouldn't shock me if behind closed doors, ASML made clear that they will create de-Americanized versions of the machines for the Chinese market alone.This might be a reaction to ASML telling them they won't follow sanctions if they are increased. They were quite open about this. Maybe they lobbied to maneuver to ensure monopoly.
If bans are so effective why don't they just order Chinese companies to not do business with Chinese government or ban them from transacting in RMB? I mean don't they think USD and US market is supreme? See what happens.
I'm quite skeptical on this point.
Best time to short them...
Punishing US firms and saving foreign firms? Who buys that?
I instead believe this.
They want ASML to stop servicing China installed base. This is the only move that can have a sizeable impact today in 2024....but the outcome of such "nuclear option" is unclear. There are thousands of ASML service employees in China that can go "freelance" at any time...and regarding spare parts, they are not made of Kryptonite: thinking that China will collapse because they can not replace broken spare parts is an illusion.
EDIT: I missed this from the original :
I'd guess this will be the time we will see the banning of Chinese SME firms: Naura, AMEC, etc..
Definitely this doesn't come unexpected, they had plenty of time to prepare themselves to this unavoidable day.