Chinese semiconductor thread II

zbb

Junior Member
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The only way out is to exclude any and all US technology from your product. And even then as we well know these governments are puppets of the US and will do its bidding anyway.

Right now they can't get the European and Japanese companies to comply, so they sanction it on their own thinking this might be enough. When it isn't they will just turn on the screws and force them to comply.

IIRC, when the US first started using the Foreign Direct Product Rule to restrict sales by non-US companies to China, the restrictions initially only applied to items where US content is above certain threshold (25% ?). Many of the targeted non-US companies quickly updated their products to replace some US components with non-US ones to get under the initial FDPR threshold set by the US. As a result, the US had to lower the FDPR threshold to 0% for semiconductor equipment sales to China. Is my recollection correct?

I suspect one reason why the US is now giving FDPR exemptions to some non-US companies is because these companies are threatening to completely drop all their US suppliers and are very likely to succeed doing so if they tried.
 
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ansy1968

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IIRC, when the US first started using the Foreign Direct Product Rule to restrict sales by non-US companies to China, the restrictions initially only applied to items where US content is above certain threshold (25%?). Many of the targeted non-US companies quickly updated their products to replace some US components with non-US ones to go under the initial FDPR threshold set by the US. It was only after that the US set the FDPR threshold to 0% for semiconductor equipment sales to China. Is my recollection correct?

I suspect one reason why the US is now giving FDPR exemptions to some non-US companies now is because these companies are threatening to completely drop all their US suppliers and are likely to succeed doing so if they tried.
I'm thinking ASML may use RS LASER replacing CYMER , Gigaphoton might use Chinese components as its much cheaper.
 

tokenanalyst

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The "Pilot Development of High-Purity Silicon Carbide Materials" project was signed​


On July 28, according to the official WeChat account of Chongqing Release, the 2024 International Frontier New Materials Conference and the 4th China (Chongqing) Graphene Industry Development Summit Forum opened in Chongqing on July 26. A project signing ceremony was held at the event site, and Chongqing Graphene Research Institute Co., Ltd. and Guoxunjing (Chongqing) Technology Co., Ltd. signed a contract for the "Pilot Development of High-Purity Silicon Carbide Materials" project.

According to the information, Guoxijing (Chongqing) Technology Co., Ltd. was established in January 2024 with a registered capital of RMB 3 million. Its business scope includes new material technology research and development, graphite and carbon product manufacturing and sales, electronic special material research and development, manufacturing and sales, etc. Chongqing Graphene Research Institute Co., Ltd. was established in June 2016. It focuses on the application of graphene materials, conducts key technology research and development and new product development, and has 6 laboratories including graphene water-based anti-corrosion coatings, graphene building materials, graphene new energy applications, graphene biomedicine, graphene sensors, and graphene modified coating new materials.

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tokenanalyst

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the part about EDA on entity list is the dumbest thing. What can you possibly do to stop software makers from using your technology?

But good thing that AMEC has a plan to go fully domestic on their parts sourcing. It's necessary.
Banning software is ridiculous and done by people who really don't understand how things works, most of the core technologies in software development are open source and free to download.
 

tokenanalyst

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They could make it harder for Chinese companies to develop or commercialize plugins or add ons for US EDA software.
But this will also mean those companies will move their product to a Chinese EDA platform instead.


Both AMEC and Naura have been doing this over the past two years I think. Probably all Chinese semi tool vendors have similar programs.
The next phase of high percentage of growth will be Chinese sub-systems, parts and materials manufacturers. Than again, it will blowback to the stooges faces pretty nice because these companies are going to sell the products in the international market once they conquer the Chinese domestic market, in the near future AMAT, KLA and LAM will be buying Chinese components for their products even if they are not made in the mainland per se.
 

Hyper

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I'm quite skeptical on this point.



Best time to short them...



Punishing US firms and saving foreign firms? Who buys that?



I instead believe this.

They want ASML to stop servicing China installed base. This is the only move that can have a sizeable impact today in 2024....but the outcome of such "nuclear option" is unclear. There are thousands of ASML service employees in China that can go "freelance" at any time...and regarding spare parts, they are not made of Kryptonite: thinking that China will collapse because they can not replace broken spare parts is an illusion.


EDIT: I missed this from the original
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I'd guess this will be the time we will see the banning of Chinese SME firms: Naura, AMEC, etc..

Definitely this doesn't come unexpected, they had plenty of time to prepare themselves to this unavoidable day.
This might be a reaction to ASML telling them they won't follow sanctions if they are increased. They were quite open about this. Maybe they lobbied to maneuver to ensure monopoly.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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I'm quite skeptical on this point.



Best time to short them...



Punishing US firms and saving foreign firms? Who buys that?



I instead believe this.

They want ASML to stop servicing China installed base. This is the only move that can have a sizeable impact today in 2024....but the outcome of such "nuclear option" is unclear. There are thousands of ASML service employees in China that can go "freelance" at any time...and regarding spare parts, they are not made of Kryptonite: thinking that China will collapse because they can not replace broken spare parts is an illusion.


EDIT: I missed this from the original
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:



I'd guess this will be the time we will see the banning of Chinese SME firms: Naura, AMEC, etc..

Definitely this doesn't come unexpected, they had plenty of time to prepare themselves to this unavoidable day.
If bans are so effective why don't they just order Chinese companies to not do business with Chinese government or ban them from transacting in RMB? I mean don't they think USD and US market is supreme? See what happens.
 
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