Chinese semiconductor thread II

[european_guy]

Global Semiconductor Fab Capacity Projected to Expand 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, SEMI Reports​

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global semiconductor manufacturing industry is expected to increase capacity by 6% in 2024 and post a 7% gain in 2025, reaching a record capacity high of 33.7 million wafers per month (wpm: 8-inch equivalent)

Chinese chipmakers are expected to maintain double-digit capacity growth, registering a 14% increase to 10.1 million wpm in 2025 – nearly a third of the industry’s total – after logging a 15% rise to 8.85 million wpm in 2024. Despite the potential risks of an overshoot, the region continues aggressive investment in its capacity expansion, in part to mitigate the impact of recent export controls. Major foundry suppliers including Huahong Group, Nexchip, Sien Integrated and SMIC and DRAM maker CXMT are investing heavily to grow the region’s semiconductor manufacturing capacity.

Most of the other major chipmaking regions are expected to see capacity growth of no more than 5% in 2025. Taiwan is forecast to rank second in capacity in 2025 at 5.8 million wpm, a 4% growth rate, while South Korea is projected to take the third spot next year, expanding capacity 7% to 5.4 million wpm after surpassing the 5 million wpm mark for the first time in 2024. Japan, the Americas, Europe & Mideast, and Southeast Asia are expected to grow semiconductor manufacturing capacity 4.7 million wpm (3% YoY), 3.2 million wpm (5% YoY), 2.7 million wpm (4% YoY), and 1.8 million wpm (4% YoY), respectively.

This is something we tend to forget: China has already 30% of world capacity, and is expanding 2/3 times faster compared to the other regions: it will be 15% in 2024, when the second best South Korea will expand 7% in 2025, US just 5% to reach 3.2M wpm in 2025, compare this with China: US wafer capacity is 3 times smaller than China!

 

[Randomuser]

This article is low quality garbage intended for the not-so-smart american audience

Let me guess it's gonna age just like guy who said Biden killed all of Chinas semiconductor in one swoop right?

When the Huawei P60 came out, it really felt good watching the west go through all five stages of grief in record speed. It happened so fast their mask slipped off and showed the world all these sanctions were just them feeling fear of China's advancement but they still couldn't stop it.

At this point no more western words should be paid attention to. The time for action is now and will be determined by who comes out on top. If america loses, I don't want to hear another damn word from their discredited ass.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Let me guess it's gonna age just like guy who said Biden killed all of Chinas semiconductor in one swoop right?

When the Huawei P60 came out, it really felt good watching the west go through all five stages of grief in record speed. It happened so fast their mask slipped off and showed the world all these sanctions were just them feeling fear of China's advancement but they still couldn't stop it.

At this point no more western words should be paid attention to. The time for action is now and will be determined by who comes out on top. If america loses, I don't want to hear another damn word from their discredited ass.

5nm developed with DUV will not be such a big shock anymore. Most western articles already mention it as being developed. Most westerners now rely entirely on EUV to bring China down. They say China will not be able to go further than 5NM since they don't have EUV.

So, the only thing that can "shock" the west next will be Chinese EUV in mass production and being used to construct 3NM. That will be the biggest shock in history. They have blown up EUV to be a holy grail level tech at this point. Its considered the pinnacle of human technology in western media.

 

[tokenanalyst]

What I think we are seeing is panic and anxiety is starting to hit a lot of these "experts" many of whom advised politicians to adopt harsher policies. What we are seeing these guys scrapping not the bottom but the back of the barrel, looking for any comment any weibo post any anything that don't make them look like know nothing clowns and some case help them to live with the idea that their advice to politicians cost the entire industry billions and hundred of thousand good paying jobs

We have:

-A company that what supposed to died years ago seeing their revenue increase 5 times.
-A big GPU company losing big time against domestic companies when they shouldn't.
-A fab that was 5th in the world with 14nm process now becoming the 3rd and rumored to be approaching a 5nm equivalent process .
node.
-Semiconductor equipment companies that 5 years ago were just 2% of the total installed equipment now jumping to more than 20X of that of the total installed base and the trend seems to be not stopping.
-Parts, materials and subsystems companies that didn't existed 4 years ago opening manufacturing plants in Malaysia for exports.
-The "terrifying" probability that lithography companies in China being not just able to create scanners that match those of ASML but also create an entire supply chain for those scanners.
-The "absolutely terrifying" probability of China creating HVM EUV scanners.
-Advancement in memory, 3D-NAND, CFET, 3D-2.5D packaging and so on.

-AND in top of all that you have US companies who revenue dependency was 20% 5 years ago seeing that now their dependency jump to almost half of the revenue <due to export controls induced panic buying> putting them at risk of crashing harder than Boeing if China cut them off or if the stooges in the WH increase their controls. Something that will snowball into the entire industry given that they will have to trim down jobs and R&D

Is not painting good for the Think Tank stooges and the Silicon Valley weed lovers technological doomsayers that advised the stooges politicians in the WH. Huge amount of cope gas is being released.

My personal opinion or prediction is I think when the lithography issue is solved <I think is going to be sooner than the stooges expect> and China is capable manufacturing high end chips without any restrictions, in a higher percentage than expected, hear me now and quote me later, the narrative on export controls will be shifted from "stopping China from making chips" to "it was a success because forced China to decouple their supply chain". - "Now give me my paycheck" - "Let me write a book to receive pats on the back in conferences"

 

[ansy1968]

5nm developed with DUV will not be such a big shock anymore. Most western articles already mention it as being developed. Most westerners now rely entirely on EUV to bring China down. They say China will not be able to go further than 5NM since they don't have EUV.

So, the only thing that can "shock" the west next will be Chinese EUV in mass production and being used to construct 3NM. That will be the biggest shock in history. They have blown up EUV to be a holy grail level tech at this point. Its considered the pinnacle of human technology in western media.

When SMIC introduced its N+3 5nm chip for Huawei it will be a huge news, Both sanction company vilified by the US will be leapfrogging them by 1 generation. The nearest date is TSMC in Arizona which will start producing their 5nm in 2026, so how do you think the American reaction? being beaten by the Chinese using old tech DUVL....lol That's why Huawei is verryy iffy regarding this chip, I think there will be an official announcement by OCT 1 the Chinese 75th anniversary regarding their DUVL (SSA800A and SSA900A) , 5nm chips and its EUVL development, a month before the US presidential election, will that effect Brandon chances winning the election?

 

[Randomuser]

What I think we are seeing is panic and anxiety is starting to hit a lot of these "experts" many of whom advised politicians to adopt harsher policies. What we are seeing these guys scrapping not the bottom but the back of the barrel, looking for any comment any weibo post any anything that don't make them look like know nothing clowns and some case help them to live with the idea that their advice to politicians cost the entire industry billions and hundred of thousand good paying jobs

We have:

-A company that what supposed to died years ago seeing their revenue increase 5 times.
-A big GPU company losing big time against domestic companies when they shouldn't.
-A fab that was 5th in the world with 14nm process now becoming the 3rd and rumored to be approaching a 5nm equivalent process .
node.
-Semiconductor equipment companies that 5 years ago were just 2% of the total installed equipment now jumping to more than 20X of that of the total installed base and the trend seems to be not stopping.
-Parts, materials and subsystems companies that didn't existed 4 years ago opening manufacturing plants in Malaysia for exports.
-The "terrifying" probability that lithography companies in China being not just able to create scanners that match those of ASML but also create an entire supply chain for those scanners.
-The "absolutely terrifying" probability of China creating HVM EUV scanners.
-Advancement in memory, 3D-NAND, CFET, 3D-2.5D packaging and so on.

-AND in top of all that you have US companies who revenue dependency was 20% 5 years ago seeing that now their dependency jump to almost half of the revenue <due to export controls induced panic buying> putting them at risk of crashing harder than Boeing if China cut them off or if the stooges in the WH increase their controls. Something that will snowball into the entire industry given that they will have to trim down jobs and R&D

Is not painting good for the Think Tank stooges and the Silicon Valley weed lovers technological doomsayers that advised the stooges politicians in the WH. Huge amount of cope gas is being released.

My personal opinion or prediction is I think when the lithography issue is solved <I think is going to be sooner than the stooges expect> and China is capable manufacturing high end chips without any restrictions, in a higher percentage than expected, hear me now and quote me later, the narrative on export controls will be shifted from "stopping China from making chips" to "it was a success because forced China to decouple their supply chain". - "Now give me my paycheck" - "Let me write a book to receive pats on the back in conferences"

Its not fair really. If I make a mistake a work, I get chewed out. If I keep doing it, I could lose my job.

These guy bad analysis cost their clients billions of dollars. And they still keep getting employed instead of blacklisted. How on earth does that work?

 

[tokenanalyst]

Its not fair really. If I make a mistake a work, I get chewed out. If I keep doing it, I could lose my job.

These guy bad analysis cost their clients billions of dollars. And they still keep getting employed instead of blacklisted. How on earth does that work?

Is a revolving door of the national security apparatus of individuals with zero accountability,most whom have never work in the industries that they are giving advice to. So they have nothing to lose, if 124K semiconductor industry workers lose their jobs, the hawkish ones will see then as a just causalities that they don't care because they are liberals and the others will find ways to blame China for it.

Like Gina said in a interview in front of a group of CEOs at the reagan forum:
"I know that a group of CEOs in the audience that are just cranky because they are losing revenue, that is just life"
"if you're not selling into China a decade from now it's not because of our export controls it's because China is designing you out"

 

[tphuang]

It is what happens. There is so much money going around that all sorts of people show up. China already has several CMOS imaging sensor and DDIC manufacturers so it is hardly surprising that in such a saturated market a company like that would fail.
The lack of knowledge in the industry by regulators in China also led to some less than optimal situations. But the government this time seems to be funding first the well established players in the market.

It is kind of curious they mention the GlobalFoundries Chengdu project. When that failure was due more to US sanctions than anything else. GlobalFoundries being a US HQ company. Chengdu has since attracted new chip investments including BYD Semiconductor and Hua Hong.

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The scale of byd new plant in chengdu blows my mind. Originally designed for a $30b project, which probably meant another 300k wpm of nand chip when fully built out

byd took over that land in full on the cheap. And now they said their plant will produced 10x the second largest sic plant in the world. Are they really going to eventually build 300k wpm of sic chips?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Are they really going to eventually build 300k wpm of sic chips?

Yes.

 

[pbd456]

Is there any reason why SiC are not used for computing?