Chinese semiconductor thread II

[Wrought]

What the heck are you talking about?

Nikkei is clueless and they interview with these people who don't even follow EV supply chain in China to make comments. What does that tell you?

I'm talking about the fact that there is still significant reliance on foreign imports. Are you claiming the localization rate is 100% or something? Nikkei being clueless about the exact number doesn't mean the dependency isn't there. My point was that localization is going up and will continue to go up for years.

 

[tokenanalyst]

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[tokenanalyst]

I'm talking about the fact that there is still significant reliance on foreign imports. Are you claiming the localization rate is 100% or something?

Depends, who knows?

 

[Wrought]

Depends, who knows?

No it doesn't? The article was talking about the entire industry, not a single component or company. The entire industry is very obviously not 100% localized. I mean look at Huawei which is under far heavier sanctions and far more scrutiny, and even they are still using some foreign components.

 

[tokenanalyst]

No it doesn't? The article was talking about the entire industry, not a single component or company. The entire industry is very obviously not 100% localized.

Yes it does that why I say, depends. Can they build medium size 55-28nm fab using completely domestic tools, materials, components? Yes. In fact the evidence points me that they are doing that already, running completely domestic fabs right now to make all this semiconductor manufacturing technology work in concert and solve problems.
From 28-7 nm is not a leap in technology, except in lithography. So technology speaking I would say they are almost there, capacity to meet the demand is another story, but once the problems are solved capacity will follow soon.

I mean look at Huawei which is under far heavier sanctions and far more scrutiny, and even they are still using some foreign components.

The components that Huawei is using are from their old stockpile and not in semiconductor manufacturing. I do think that SMIC can get some tools from Japan and Europe given they are more flexible than the US in export controls but I don't think that they have received a lot licenses from the US department of commerce.

 

[Wrought]

Yes it does that why I say, depends. Can they build medium size 55-28nm fab using completely domestic tools, materials, components? Yes. In fact the evidence points me that they are doing that already, running completely domestic fabs right now to make all this semiconductor manufacturing technology work in concert and solve problems.
From 28-7 nm is not a leap in technology, except in lithography. So technology speaking I would say they are almost there, capacity to meet the demand is another story, but once the problems are solved capacity will follow soon.


The components that Huawei is using are from their old stockpile and not in semiconductor manufacturing. I do think that SMIC can get some tools from Japan and Europe given they are more flexible than the US in export controls but I don't think that they have received a lot licenses from the US department of commerce.

Great, then you agree with me. This was what I originally said and got hit with "what the heck are you talking about?"

Having the tech and having the capacity are two different things. Foundries don't pop up overnight. There's a lot of capacity under construction, but it won't come online for awhile.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Great, then you agree with me. This was what I originally said and got hit with "what the heck are you talking about?"

China is building semiconductor equipment, materials and components capacity an outstanding speed, that is what Mr. Wang was saying. Basically they are just popping overnight. One year a semiconductor equipment company announce a new fabrication facility the NEXT YEAR the facility is already producing AND shipping. Don't you think that this is a sword of damocles hanging over US companies? that the stooges in DC trapped themselves between a rock and hard place?

The technology is almost there for below of 7nm, so let suppose they build a medium size fab, lets say 10K WPM, I do think it will be only "copy and scale exact" to build bigger ones, pretty fast. As capacity increase.

 

[tphuang]

I'm talking about the fact that there is still significant reliance on foreign imports. Are you claiming the localization rate is 100% or something? Nikkei being clueless about the exact number doesn't mean the dependency isn't there. My point was that localization is going up and will continue to go up for years.

I'm telling you that 10% is a fake number.

I actually keep track of the Chinese supply chain for EVs and i post them here. The number is clearly not 100% and it differs depending on the automaker. And also don't expect foreign automakers in China to be buying Chinese chips all that much. But aside from that, there is no current issue with the domestic chip process. They can pretty much produce everything locally, but it will take time for automakers to be comfortable to switch over.

You don't need to ever have 100% localization. Once you can produce everything and have 50% localization, you are in a very good place already.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Bengbu, Anhui: Silicon-based new materials industry cluster accelerates development​

Bengbu City, Anhui Province has signed 34 new silicon-based new material industry projects with a total planned investment of 13.09 billion yuan, 61 projects under construction with a total investment of 38.34 billion yuan, and 57 new projects planned to be started. The total investment is 15.58 billion yuan. Strengthen enterprise cultivation. In the first quarter of 2024, there were 120 companies in the city's silicon-based new materials industry base, achieving an output value of 7.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%.

Establish a guarantee system for city leaders to contact enterprises, and regularly arrange for dedicated personnel to visit enterprises to help solve practical problems. The city's silicon-based new materials industry has 85 high-tech enterprises and 59 specialized and new enterprises. Currently, Bengbu City is building "China Glass Valley" and "China Sensing Valley" around the advantageous areas of silicon-based new materials such as smart sensors and new glass, and is committed to creating a silicon-based new material industry cluster. Implement scientific and technological research. Support leading silicon-based new material companies to increase investment in research and development around key technologies and implement a number of scientific and technological projects.​

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[Wrought]

China is building semiconductor equipment, materials and components capacity an outstanding speed, that is what Mr. Wang was saying. Basically they are just popping overnight. One year a semiconductor equipment company announce a new fabrication facility the NEXT YEAR the facility is already producing AND shipping. Don't you think that this is a sword of damocles hanging over US companies? that the stooges in DC trapped themselves between a rock and hard place?

The technology is almost there for below of 7nm, so let suppose they build a medium size fab, lets say 10K WPM, I do think it will be only "copy and scale exact" to build bigger ones, pretty fast. As capacity increase.

Yes they are building fast, to serve enormous demand. Demand which is not 100% fulfilled by domestic companies. It is an ongoing process.

I'm telling you that 10% is a fake number.

I actually keep track of the Chinese supply chain for EVs and i post them here. The number is clearly not 100% and it differs depending on the automaker. And also don't expect foreign automakers in China to be buying Chinese chips all that much. But aside from that, there is no current issue with the domestic chip process. They can pretty much produce everything locally, but it will take time for automakers to be comfortable to switch over.

You don't need to ever have 100% localization. Once you can produce everything and have 50% localization, you are in a very good place already.

Sure, I never said it was a real number. I agree that the number is not 100% even though they are making progress, and it is a switch which will happen gradually not overnight. I don't think that is any sort of shock which is why I was surprised that you went all "what the heck are you talking about?"