Chinese semiconductor thread II

[ansy1968]

Do we have a solid proof that SSA800A has been mass produced?

Sir from all indication they are, all the major expansion plan by U-precision and other components provider had been finished. It may not be as massive as ASML now BUT coming from low base we can expect an increase of 100% from 12 prototype to 24 commercialized machine in 2024.

As proof of the pudding, SMEE had delivered 2 units last DECEMBER 2023, so if we can deduced 2 x 12 months = 24 machine and it's on the conservative side, along the way SMEE can able to increase production as they able to master the intricacies of mass producing the machine.

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SMEE, the Chinese leader in lithography gear that was blacklisted by the US, has announced its plans to deliver its first lithography machine based on 28nm ...


Nevertheless, these restrictions have had an unintended consequence. SMEE, the Chinese leader in lithography gear that was blacklisted by the US, has announced its plans to deliver its first lithography machine based on 28nm technology later this year. The company's first domestically produced SSA/800-10W lithography machine is expected to enter the market by the end of 2023.

And from the @horse (sorry bro can't help myself) mouth itself.

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Aug 1, 2023 — China, reportedly, will launch its first 28-nanometer homegrown lithography machine ... Equipment Group (SMEE) ... lithography machine will be ...

 

[tphuang]

Like my previous post, only NXT 2050i is acceptable, not even NXT 2000i as the Chinese had an analogous domestic machine available in SSA800A and being mass produced.

WOW!!!!! A 40% decline in profit.....lol

Net profits came in at 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in the first quarter of the year, compared to 2.0 billion euros in profit the firm reported in the fourth quarter of last year.

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37 minutes ago — Dutch tech giant ASML, which supplies chip-making machines to the semiconductor industry, on Wednesday reported a drop in net profits and ...

The reason why this has dropped so much is because China massively stocked up on ASML machines in 2023. That is unlikely to replicate itself again anytime soon.

ASML is doing fine still. Please, a little less hyperventilation here.

 

[ansy1968]

The reason why this has dropped so much is because China massively stocked up on ASML machines in 2023. That is unlikely to replicate itself again anytime soon.

ASML is doing fine still. Please, a little less hyperventilation here.

I know, I'm saying its all downhill from now on and I'm okay I'm not hyperventilating and thanks for your concern.

 

[GiantPanda]

The reason why this has dropped so much is because China massively stocked up on ASML machines in 2023. That is unlikely to replicate itself again anytime soon.

ASML is doing fine still. Please, a little less hyperventilation here.

According to the article:

If the percentage of sales to China rose then the the bigger drop came from the rest of the world.

Basically China made up half of their sales this year not 2023. If the latest bans take full affect later this year, you are talking about the theoritical possibility of having sales halved if all factors remain the same.

 

[tphuang]

According to the article:
View attachment 128218
If the percentage of sales to China rose then the the bigger drop came from the rest of the world.

Basically China made up half of their sales this year not 2023. If the latest bans take full affect later this year, you are talking about the theoritical possibility of having sales halved if all factors remain the same.

That I am not sure about, but in general, asml has an effective monopoly and that isn’t changing for a few years. I would just calm down about others and focus on china’s own development

 

[GiantPanda]

That I am not sure about, but in general, asml has an effective monopoly and that isn’t changing for a few years. I would just calm down about others and focus on china’s own development

That I would agree with. The bigger story is China's development is trending towards supplying most if not all of its semicon needs -- since the advanced nodes are banned then there is little need for imports. With China being the biggest market by a very wide margin, "overcapacity" will be the issue for companies making mature nodes situated outside that market.

 

[GiantPanda]

This much more than ASML.

ASML is pretty much a monopoly (save for Canon and Nikon grabbing minor shares) as has been pointed out. It is a bellweather for the entire semicon industry.

When ASML's 1st qtr earning as a whole gets clobbered bad BUT its China earnings remains strong then that reflects on the entire industry:





China's semicon eco-system is growing massively. The companies in the rest of the world, who have open access to all of ASML's catalogue -- unlike China, is going in the other direction.

That is the bigger story. This is the inflection point where China's chips companies begin its ascent like solar, EVs, HSR, etc. where they'll eventually make more of something than the rest of the world combined.

 

[ansy1968]

Losing 50% of the global market represented by China would be a death knell for a lot of current semicon companies (both fab and fabless) from the rest of the world. For new ones like the proposed fabs in India, they'll be stillborn -- drowned at birth by a flood of Chinese chips.

I believed it when I see it, I'm not belittling India BUT I read this story before and the storyline start with optimism followed by denial and then anger and the process repeat itself. India only had 6 million consumer which you can classified at the upper echelon of the middle class, this class can readily afford premium Iphone and Tesla. So good luck to Elon Musk, I hope for his success in this endeavor cause nobody will buy an Indian made Tesla even it was sold for cheap.

 

[Randomuser]

I might take a while but one day hopefully NAURA, AMEC and SMEE will become developed enough that it supply China's domestic needs and make a dent in ASML's monopoly.

 

[ansy1968]

SiFive selects a faster Chinese-made RISC-V CPU instead of an Intel chip for its latest development board. SiFive has unveiled the HiFive Premier P550, a new development board using the RISC-V architecture. It will be the first commercially available out-of-order RISC-V development board.

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From the article

What's a little awkward is that the HiFive Pro P550's system-on-chip was basically Intel's experimental

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, designed with SiFive and fabbed by the x86 giant on a 7nm process node. To us it looks as though that project didn't pan out as one might hope, leaving SiFive to launch the HiFive Premier P550 using a Chinese system-on-chip rather than an Intel part.