Chinese semiconductor thread II

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China's AI chip self-sufficiency rate stands at 104% in 2028

Demand for AI chips in China is expected to more than double (138 percent) in three years from 37 billion U.S. dollars this year to 88 billion dollars in 2028. In the process, Chinese companies will likely increase their share.

Bernstein expects a shortage of AI semiconductors in China from 2026 to 2027, but expects the supply and demand balance to be balanced starting in 2028. The share of Chinese companies is expected to surge from 58% ($16 billion) last year to 93% ($82 billion) in 2028.

Chinese companies are expected to expand their supply capacity to $16 billion in 2025, $19 billion in 2026, $39 billion in 2027, and $91 billion in 2028. As a result, it is estimated that the self-sufficiency rate will reach 104 percent in 2028.

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