Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

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1、目前,
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的IDM和晶圆代工收入占比约为1:1。我们预计今年四季度保持这个比例。我们预计明年产品收入占比有望进一步提升至60%及以上。

2、目前,
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的产品还是以中低压的MOSFET为主。但是,公司的更高毛利率的屏蔽栅MOSFET(SGT MOSFET)的出货比例会增加,将推动公司MOS产品收入保持两位数的增长;另一方面,受益于行业供不应求的现状,公司的IGBT收入占比也会增加,预计今年公司IGBT产品线收入有望达到10亿元的规模,约占总收入的10%。未来三年,IGBT收入有望保持50%的复合增速;而且,华润微也积极拓展SiC相关业务,并有望在今年取得2,000万元的收入。整个高压产品(如高压超结MOS)占比也会相应提升。

3、公司的晶圆代工产品和自有产品,即IDM产品,具有较大的区分度。无锡的产线主要承接了代工需求,而重庆产线,包括8寸和12寸产线也承担公司自身的IDM业务。从产品角度,PMIC产品占到晶圆代工/制造业务的60%多,是最大的产品贡献。这与IDM业务中功率器件贡献占比较大存在差异。长期来看,虽然
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不会增加晶圆代工产线,但是可以通过机改释放一些产能增量,公司这块晶圆制造业务也有保持小幅成长。、

4、公司今年的封测业务产能利用率在80%左右。这是受到市场需求下滑,尤其是消费类应用需求下滑的影响。市场预期行业需求疲软可能会在明年二季度开始触底改善。

5、
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的掩膜业务此前保持比较高速增长,今年预计销售额至少增长10%
so they are right now 50:50 between IDM and foundry business. Expecting this to be 60:40 next year
main product is SGT MOSFET (low voltage), this imo is a low revenue business and getting commoditized
packaging utilization is 80%
mask business is improving

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掩模业务方面,华润微上半年掩模业务销售额同比实现一定幅度增长,产能目前3000片/月,掩模业务已服务国内各主要FAB线及众多IC设计公司。高端掩模项目已在建设中,规划产能1000片/月,预计在2024年可提供40nm及以上线宽的掩模代工服务。
Mask business is now up to 3000 pieces/month. high end mask is getting built, looking to produce 1000/month. Will be supply 40nm masks in 2024
华润微对封测产能表示,公司目前封装能力月产能8.7亿颗,未来公司将通过重庆封测基地项目为抓手,全面覆盖功率半导体产品模块封装、晶圆中道生产线、面板级封装、第三代半导体封装等技术领先门类,有序推进封装工艺升级
it can package 870m chips/month. seems like a lot

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公司MOSFET、IGBT、SBD、TMBS模块均已进入光伏应用,公司自有产品下游应用结构中新能源(含光伏)占比达到19%,产品导入光伏组件龙头客户并实现批量供货。
its various power chips are entering PV supply chain
1)继续优化MOS产品市场结构,光伏/储能/工控营收占比将继续提升;

2)开展IGBT模块在汽车主驱上的验证并有望于2024年出货;

3)SiC二极管有望于2023年实现产品系列化,车规级SiC MOS产品预计将于本年贡献收入。

在产能方面,华润微重庆12吋产线已经通线,预计2023年底该厂产能将爬坡至2万片/月(等效8吋);深圳12吋产线建设稳步推进,公司预计将于2024年底起逐步产生收入;先进封装产线已在1Q23实现批量生产,预计全年将稳步上量
auto grade IGBT for SiC MOS look to be delivering this year or next. Production a Chongqing plant reaching 20k wpm (8-inch equivalent) by end of the year. i don't get why you would still measure by 8-inch equivalent when the plan itself is 12-inch
advanced packaging line started product in 2023Q1
 

tphuang

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i figure i will post this here since someone will probably post it eventually

my podcast with Carl Zha. I think there is actually more to this podcast (we were doing it for close to an hour), so maybe another one will come up later.

I pretty much just repeated much of what I said on manifold podcast.
 

supersnoop

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Based on that logic. Huawei should just not look into any smaller/niche areas then.

But in reality, they've actually operated entirely opposite to that. Have you seen them developing chips for pretty much everything?

In this case, they are already doing the hard work of optimizing maleeon to various graphic rendering applications.

you have two choices. Make your SoC larger to have more space for an integrated GPU. Or put a separate GPU on your tablet in a different location.

Again, the need to do this is because K9000S cannot achieve same game playing performance as apple SoC.

so you want Huawei to loose competitiveness in tablet and laptops while hoping that SMIC will catch up to TSMC in 6 to 7 years?

Please go watch those videos that I talked about to see how much additional work Huawei has done for Mate 60 and Matepad13.2 Pro to make them the best of class.

Huawei is committed to pulling all the stops to make sure it has the best product

I'm not going to reply to you anymore unless you watch those videos. Based on your responses, you clearly have not.

I did watch the video, but I will admit 2 things here.
1. I do not really understand mandarin (crucify me, but that was the era I was raised in)
2. I try my best to read the subtitles, but my Chinese literacy is not great either. I skipped to the mPen, gaming performance, and display features.

I’m getting the sense that you are annoyed because of all the consumer facing features he brought out (ie HDR, gaming performance) are not so useful for a server, but I keep pushing that business. (ie. You think I am ignoring the work they are putting into these "consumer" features)

That being said I think we are on two different wavelengths here. I am not trying to create a quarrel or anything, certainly I have no insider information, just presenting some other perspective/point of view in the hopes for furthering discussion for everyone.

Again, I’m not saying they won’t develop GPU (just the opposite, they definitely will have and need a great GPU in the future) or have any consumer facing applications, just some of my feelings towards how things will develop.

They will still need a powerful GPU, why? Because they are actively developing HarmonyOS with in house kernel. Any modern OS will need a strong graphics layer using GPU acceleration to provide a smooth interface (yes I did see those mPen effects, which are an obvious appliction of GPU rendering). This is obvious for Phones/PC, but can't be overlooked for automobile applications as Huawei moves into that (think of how annoying slow scrolling maps are, or waiting for the climate control screen to show up). Other areas of growing importance, smart TV/entertainment, customer payment/service kiosks, digital signage, all can use a SoC with integrated modem to enable remote applications and strong GPU to provide better customer experience.

All that said, I still stand by my point that a *discrete* GPU for consumers is probably something that Huawei is not heavily leaning into.

Pulling out all the stops to have the best product, but if you are losing 25% battery life (to make space for cooling), then do you really have the best product?

Another consideration, is there enough capacity to fab both CPU and GPU at 7nm? If this capacity doesn’t exist, then discrete GPUs in these applications becomes moot.

Huawei held their cards until Mate 60, so I would say yes, they are willing to cede market share than put out crap. If they unleash a flood of crap, their name would be ruined. The Mate 60 showed that their technical excellence can overcome obstacles put into place by the most vindictive government on the planet. I don't think they would accept crap battery life or an ugly form factor to accommodate a discrete GPU. If that is the only way for the near future, then I imagine they will look into exotic cooling or improved battery chemistry/packaging. Which breakthroughs will come first? (I honestly think fabrication would be)

I think you missed by point on Kaby Lake-G. Kaby Lake-G was on 14nm+ (the first of many Intel pluses before it became a joke). My point is actually that Huawei doesn't need top performance or discrete GPU performance for laptops because most people don't need/care about it, and therefore won't pay for it. They could probably make a Kaby Lake-G type chip at this point with 7nm and probably have at least good 1080p gaming performance, but is there a market for this? Chinese gamers that are highly patriotic, but don't want the highest performance possible? Also, don't forget the history of Kaby Lake-G, it was a last ditch attempt to keep Apple with Intel, by boosting up GPU performance while keeping within the 65W TDP of the MacBook Pro (released 2018). In the end, Apple never went for it, because they had M-series around the corner (released 2020).

Conversely, what is the market for a Huawei business laptop with fully integrated 5G modem for always on connectivity and just good enough GPU to provide a smooth user interface?

I hope this is constructive discussion for everyone.
 

siegecrossbow

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i figure i will post this here since someone will probably post it eventually

my podcast with Carl Zha. I think there is actually more to this podcast (we were doing it for close to an hour), so maybe another one will come up later.

I pretty much just repeated much of what I said on manifold podcast.

Couldn’t resist taking a shot at poor Mr Schneider huh.
 

KYli

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“We need different tools,” she told a Senate Commerce Committee hearing. “We need additional resources around enforcement.”

Raimondo pointed to the Restrict Act, which would expand her department’s authority to review and prevent information and technology transactions that pose national security risks. She declined to comment on progress in Commerce’s probe into a new Huawei smartphone powered by an advanced 7-nanometer chip.
 

tokenanalyst

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“We need different tools,” she told a Senate Commerce Committee hearing. “We need additional resources around enforcement.”

Raimondo pointed to the Restrict Act, which would expand her department’s authority to review and prevent information and technology transactions that pose national security risks. She declined to comment on progress in Commerce’s probe into a new Huawei smartphone powered by an advanced 7-nanometer chip.
Maybe if her think tanker ridden department have a bit of knowledge of the things they are trying to sanction MAYBE they could get something out of it but I have my doubts. In theory their export controls are extraterritorial but in practice they are almost to next to impossible to implement outside the United States and much less inside China were all transactions are made in Yuans using Chinese banks. The only option they have left is ban ban ban and ban until there is nothing left to ban and monetary and job losses reach sky high for US companies.

You can find the mind numbing hearing in youtube and it just doom, they talk about investing dozen of billions to built chips for the DOD, the worst consumer of chips ever, given that they consume a minuscule parts of chips, mostly made using mature processes and how much they like to maintain legacy systems. They talk about how US companies are going to pay "a premium" for US made Chips because "American workers" and "Working Standards". They talk about packaging in the US, that part of the semiconductor industry were every company wants to save costs even in advanced packaging. And in top of that to receive whatever little money they are going get, they want companies to jump hoops, walk political eggshells and basically legal minefields.

At this point I am pretty much convinced that the only reason TSMC is building a fab in the US was because the FUD campaign of US politicians and think tankers on the leadership of TSMC about China using military force against the DPP in Taiwan, now I think they are pretty much regretting their decision.
 
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