Chinese semiconductor industry

tokenanalyst said:

Things i know officially

1- SMEE announced the development of immersion lithography machine in 2016.
2- I have seen patents on immersion lithography filled out by QIER ELECTROMECHANICAL in 2019, that means they already have hardware.
3- I have seen the resumes of the people who work on the machine indicating that they are working on immersion lithography for the company that is working with SMEE.
4-The company that makes the optics has stated that they are working on a 28nm lithography at the Nankai University Student Career Center, which in my opinion is more official than any news source.

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5- Both RS-LASER and U-precision in 2018-2019 announced breakthroughs in parts that are absolutely necessary to make an advanced lithography machine, the dual wafer stage with an overlay error no more than a few nanometers and a high powered Arf light source.

6-There is a sense of urgency to have the machine working a soon as possible, Huawei Hubble investment not only invested in SMEE but also in the shell companies supplying SMEE. SMIC is also pretty desperate because they don't know if they are gonna get cut off from accessing Arfi machines from ASML and they also have make investments in SMEE.

And there is even more "official" information out there than just news sources but when you fill the variables into the equation the result is undeniable, they are working in a very advance immersion lithography machine. The question is how good will be and when is gonna be delivered? I hope as soon as possible and that a least give Huawei the capabilities of making advance chips on their own.

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ansy1968 said:

@tokenanalyst bro to add it's part of "02 project" so it had state support, I can't find @WTAN previous post where a certain A-SET summarized the development and progress of both DUVL and EUVL, it also highlighted that Huawei had develop an EDA , the 150kw DPP light sources and the company involved.

Find it pls click the attachment below to see A-SET post.

I believe this is official media confirmation of the existence of the "02 Special Project".
02 Special Project is State project under 5 year plan 2016-2020 to create an advanced DUV Lithography machine by SMEE.
This new machine by SMEE model number is SSA800 and will be capable of making Chips in the 7nm node.
Note that Jiangsu Nata is also known as Nanda in the article by A-Set about 193nm Photoresist.

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ansy1968 said:

Article also says EUV machine will be available within 2 years. Maybe 2021 launch?
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/attachments/image1-png.59648/

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tokenanalyst said:

It pretty much fit the "official" information that is available online except for the 10W laser, China was capable of making an 20W Arf excimer lasers in 2011, maybe is a typo.

2 years is too much optimistic, i think more like 4-5 years.

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WTAN said:

T

Gelgoog, this Video relies on the Report produced by that Stock Broker called Equal Ocean that gave misleading information about SMEE.
Equal Ocean Report had been posted on this forum many times.

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China has been forced to make a course correction in its drive for semiconductor self-reliance, focusing instead on boosting production of mature technologies while putting the goal of catching up with the world’s most advanced chip makers on the back burner, according to analysts and industry insiders.

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Only three chip makers in the world – TSMC, Samsung and Intel – have stayed in the race below 10nm, meaning it makes sense for Chinese companies to focus their resources on mature technologies where there is a ready market and strong demand. SMIC has said most of its 2021 capital expenditure will be devoted to ramping up capacity in mature nodes.

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gadgetcool5 said:

What information exactly is misleading?

The most disturbing thing in the report is how he points out that ASML PhD's have double the salary and much better benefits than SMEE's PhD's, and this is based on public job sites and comments on job boards, not the Equal Ocean Report. This could be solved if the Chinese government injected capital into SMEE or allowed SMEE to IPO to attract private capital. Since this seems so easy to solve, I don't see why it hasn't been done already. The most critical part of the semiconductor race will be human capital.

The second disturbing thing is that he claims that China's 90nm SMEE 600/2 machine from years ago is not "selling in relevant quantities." While this may be changing due to US export bans, it would be nice to see some concrete proof that sales of the machine and increasing and that it is being used by customers in volume. He also claims that this is a specialized machine for backend lithography. He does seem to think SMEE has developed a working prototype of a 28nm ArFi machine, but thinks that volume production will not be online until Beijing GuoWang's new plant is completed in 2023, followed by a year of integration which takes us to 2024. And even then, the product may not be commercially viable. In terms of commercially viable front end machines, he sees SMEE as "at least" 20 years behind ASML. Basically, China is able to prototype reasonably (only ~10 years behind) but the quality of its products are low so it never achieves commercialization. However, I still think this is due to the human capital issue mentioned in paragraph #1.

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gadgetcool5 said:

What information exactly is misleading?

The most disturbing thing in the report is how he points out that ASML PhD's have double the salary and much better benefits than SMEE's PhD's, and this is based on public job sites and comments on job boards, not the Equal Ocean Report. This could be solved if the Chinese government injected capital into SMEE or allowed SMEE to IPO to attract private capital. Since this seems so easy to solve, I don't see why it hasn't been done already. The most critical part of the semiconductor race will be human capital.

The second disturbing thing is that he claims that China's 90nm SMEE 600/2 machine from years ago is not "selling in relevant quantities." While this may be changing due to US export bans, it would be nice to see some concrete proof that sales of the machine and increasing and that it is being used by customers in volume. He also claims that this is a specialized machine for backend lithography. He does seem to think SMEE has developed a working prototype of a 28nm ArFi machine, but thinks that volume production will not be online until Beijing GuoWang's new plant is completed in 2023, followed by a year of integration which takes us to 2024. And even then, the product may not be commercially viable. In terms of commercially viable front end machines, he sees SMEE as "at least" 20 years behind ASML. Basically, China is able to prototype reasonably (only ~10 years behind) but the quality of its products are low so it never achieves commercialization. However, I still think this is due to the human capital issue mentioned in paragraph #1.

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ansy1968 said:

@tokenanalyst bro to add it's part of "02 project" so it had state support, I can't find @WTAN previous post where a certain A-SET summarized the development and progress of both DUVL and EUVL, it also highlighted that Huawei had develop an EDA , the 150kw DPP light sources and the company involved.

Find it pls click the attachment below to see A-SET post.

I believe this is official media confirmation of the existence of the "02 Special Project".
02 Special Project is State project under 5 year plan 2016-2020 to create an advanced DUV Lithography machine by SMEE.
This new machine by SMEE model number is SSA800 and will be capable of making Chips in the 7nm node.
Note that Jiangsu Nata is also known as Nanda in the article by A-Set about 193nm Photoresist.

Article also says EUV machine will be available within 2 years. Maybe 2021 launch?
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/attachments/image1-png.59648/

Click to expand...

Overbom said:

Ignore the SCMP scaremongering headline

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This was always China's strategy. Nobody thought that it would immediately start with advanced nodes..
The strategy was all about starting with mature nodes, capture all the market there, generate revenue+profits, and then start focusing on the advance nodes

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MortyandRick said:

But didn't the machine failed the 02 special project verification process? Making it unable to do 7nm? That's form a previous post?

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In the second phase of the 02 special lithography machine project, the set time is: acceptance of 193nmArF immersion in 2021 DUV lithography machine, the benchmark product is ASML's strongest DUV lithography machine at this stage: TWINSCAN NXT: 2000i

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tokenanalyst said:

failed to pass the 02 project acceptance exam?

So according to this news the first generation of SMEE immersion Lithography machine is just two "generations" behind ASML in term of performance, that is impressive if true. I personally thought that China first generation of immersion lithography machines will be "good enough" for the 28nm-14nm nodes. This could mean that this machine is good enough for the 14nm to 7nm nodes using multi-patterning techniques. So the next generation could be good enough for the 5nm nodes using multi-patterns techniques until they develop their EUV machine.

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