Its my opinion that we must try to allow pessimism to take control of this thread. As turn-off as it may sound, this thread can get really high on hot air like a Hot air balloon.
As part of this pessimism, it is important to presume that every breakthrough China makes is not commercially viable ( as in not fit for mass production applications - even if the spokespersons/leakers/sources insist on them being mass production ready ).
Regarding the underlined part, I think that is perhaps a bit much.
It is certainly important to not assume that every breakthrough is commercially viable, but I think assuming every breakthrough is not commercially viable is also excessive. Especially because a new technology or process that may be initially non-viable may become commercially viable with iterations.
There's also the fact that China's semiconductor industry and access isn't exactly a free market as a result of US sanctions anyhow, so what is "commercially viable" might mean something different in China.
Also, it is important to scale back expectations of rapid rise as there is considerable difference between lab success and fab success. Allow the thread to be pessimistic for it improves the quality of the thread. Very often are the readers here taken on a roller coaster ride. When will you learn?
A pessimistic me is still waiting for the 14nm mass production initiation and semiconductor chips from that fab hitting the market.
I agree with the general sentiment that I think some of the members here post too many random articles and videos the quality and significance of which is dubious. But at the same time I think various benchmarks and milestone updates from other members is quite important and useful and so far seems to have tracked pretty accurately with news reports that subsequently come out.
Certainly, I think everyone here recognizes the importance of localized DUVL and EUVL machines and subsuppliers.
I'm not sure why you'd be awaiting for 14nm mass production, given the domestic 28nm DUVL by all indicators has only recently had its initial units delivered, and a localized 14nm line is not expected until next year at the earliest.
Unless you're talking about a 14nm process in general (i.e.: non localized), in which case SMIC's 14nm line that produces SoCs such as Kirin 710A has existed since early 2020.
