antiterror13
Brigadier
2075 maybe, if it ever
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Chinese semiconductor industry
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2075 maybe, if it ever
antiterror13
Brigadier
Not necessarily, there is quite a lot of movement in the Chinese semiconductor industry recently, but everything is kept under the radar to avoid attracting attention. Usually the progress is being published in low-profiles publications. SMEE launched a wide area lithography machine, which is quite significant because it is competing in the same area that Canon also wants to introduce itself, "Chiplets", to extend Moore's law. The announcement of this machine were published on their Chinese site but not in the English one. I think for the same reason of not attracting unwanted attention.
They probably have the machine already working but with this kind of machine is not like a commercial product that you produce yearly in mass like cars, this sophisticated machines have to pass a lot of validations by their primary costumers, in this case SMIC or others. Also this machines are going to be sold just to a few selected clients inside China with whom SMEE is collaborating, so even if they have the machine don't expect a big announcement until is certificated.
China has big enough market to absorb anything made by SMEE, perhaps Russia, Pakistan and Iran, etc would be interested too
SMEE DUV product I think probably slightly worse than ASML 1980Di .. but in 1-2 yrs would be equivalent to 2000i and then 2050i which can produce sub 5nm
For EUV machine, perhaps 5-6 yrs away for SMEE
The action against Huawei turned out to be a blessing for China. It rallied all actors in China towards ensuring the development and capabilities domestically of the entire design and manufacturing chain for semiconductors and IC chips, and the materials, components, and equipment used in making them to be had in China.I'm flattered that I give the impression of being an insider, however I do not work in the industry. I just like to read and have some basic technical and business knowledge. In fact, I would say you seem better informed than me.
If you still want to hear my opinion, here it is
If we are talking about overall capacity, then yes there is a need for more fab capacity. Since smartphones/IOT is a continually growing segment, you see TSMC is concentrating on the sub 7nm (also the most profitable).
However, the problems are more business than technical (sure they have been mentioned previously).
- 2024 initial production is very aggressive. How many construction projects get finished in Western countries in 2 years? One of the limitations is simply labour supply. If you need some kind of skilled construction labour, there is not enough.
- Supply location is far from customers. As mentioned, Globalfoundries is a big money loser. However, their process technology is quite advanced. One of the few foundries with FinFET and SOI capability. The issue becomes it doesn't make a lot of sense to ship chips from Western New York and Germany back to Asia for packaging. Actually Intel is doing this, but at least they are on the west coast and they had a captive market for a long time. Now that AMD's performance is competitive again, you see that their margins are threatened.
As a corollary to the above:
- Who are the customers for 5nm in the USA? 5nm by 2024 will not be the leading edge process for TSMC if things are going according to schedule. The risk is ending up with the same problem as Globalfoundries. If you are not the best, then the margin becomes lower, lower margin products are going to favor being close to Asia (To put it another way, MediaTek is not going to pay those shipping costs).
- Finally, to the best of my knowledge, the supply constraints are primarily because TSMC has been very good at supporting their customers on leading (or close to leading) edge processes in addition to actually having the best process. As a result, everyone is fighting to get their high-end chips made at TSMC (which also means TSMC has less capacity for low profit chips like 28nm)
nVidia and Qualcomm are using Samsung 8nm in addition to TSMC and there have been many reports of overheating because Samsung 8nm is simply inferior. 8nm is just the smallest feature size, if other parts of the process are not engineered well, then "Xnm" is just meaningless marketing. This was also the problem with Intel's first 10nm process (I think it was used on Cannon Lake, eventually the whole process design was thrown out). Intel is finally able to fab 10nm at volume, but only lower power chips right now (15W Laptop). Overall, Intel 10nm is probably still superior to Samsung despite the naming, which is probably why they recently announced a name change. Really, Intel is only one step behind. However, since the TSMC-AZ fab will be one step behind, then Intel and TSMC would be equals in stateside manufacturing (as long as Intel doesn't suffer further delays). As such, the issue would become less technical and more about customer support.
This was a lot to go over, so let's cut to the chase. Is the AZ Fab a Potemkin village? If you consider from a corporate standpoint, then it is really a waste of money. Is it viable? Yes, probably, but it would not be maximizing the ROI.
Ironically, Cold War ideology would favour Control economy (Communism) over Capitalism. You have empty car lots and store shelves all over the country to fight the trade war with China. It is like the old Soviet system where it was difficult to get basic consumer goods like cars, bicycles, and TVs. National champion system is inefficient and prone to corruption, otherwise everyone in Malaysia would be driving Protons.
I don't think the US is wrong to ban Huawei backend equipment domestically, USA is the expert in telecom snooping, they know what the possibilities are. Where they went wrong was their attempt to destroy the company. I get why they did it, it is like the economic version of "Shock and Awe". How well did that work out though?
The general public are now so well aware of the vulnerabilities that their pressure is compelling all persons in the business to eliminate such vulnerabilities and ensure such capabilities. Politically, it is suicide for anyone in China to talk about the need to embrace global supply chains and to go by the theory of comparative advantage and focus on specialization. This extends to every manufactured product that is worth manufacturing. China must possess domestic of producing.
They make their own machines?When Jai Hinds are getting their 28 km lithography machines?
The Japanese are too proud to acknowledge that they need China and they probably feel that China will extract concessions on such issues as the Daioyu/Senkaku islands. But compared to South Korea and Taiwan they are in s much better place, since they have very strong IC chip manufacturing equipment and IC chip and semiconductor materials producing industries, unlike the latter two, who are essentially entirely dependent on imports of equipment and materials for the production of high and even most mid end chips.Believe it or not, the only way to save the Japanese Semiconductor Industry from irrelevance is to produce equipment without US IP and to ignore American sanctions on China.
Going along with the American Economic rules based order will guarantee the extinction of the Japanese Semiconductor Industry.
The current predicament of Samsung and TSMC at the hands of the US is a good lesson for Japan.
Those involved in Trump's Trade War that formulated and backed the ultimatum that China must not only shelve its Made in China 2025 policy, but also demanded that the US determined China's industrial policy are most probably among those who are championing industrial policy and subsidies for the likes of Intel and they do so without any irony.
In other words things don't look so good for US domestic production of semi-conductors because the domestic industry can't do it without huge subsidies from the US government, something they demand China stop doing for their own industries as if it were illegal.
Come on, man, 28 km?When Jai Hinds are getting their 28 km lithography machines?
But if this is the prevailing attitude among the Indian industrial, political, and bureaucratic elite, then they are not going to make any worthwhile progress for a decade to come and probably even more...
Are 2000i and 2050i DUV machines? If they are I am surprised that DUV methodologies can actually be used down to 5 nm.China has big enough market to absorb anything made by SMEE, perhaps Russia, Pakistan and Iran, etc would be interested too
SMEE DUV product I think probably slightly worse than ASML 1980Di .. but in 1-2 yrs would be equivalent to 2000i and then 2050i which can produce sub 5nm
For EUV machine, perhaps 5-6 yrs away for SMEE
Seems like it:Are 2000i and 2050i DUV machines? If they are I am surprised that DUV methodologies can actually be used down to 5 nm.
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