Chinese semiconductor industry

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jfcarli said:
US is killing their goose that lays golden eggs. This will just speed their downward tailspin. China is the largest market. If the EU becomes self sufficient as well, who is the US (and Taiwan, by the way) going to sell to.
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It's a just punishment for not playing fair.

You have to thank the Orange One for how this state of affairs come about. China was initially trying to be nice by not being very aggressive in the timeline of their endeavor of being independent on semiconductors, considering that that could potentially make worse the gripe that the U.S. was having with China, that was the trade imbalance between the 2 countries.
 
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China's infrared thermal imagers thrive globally amid pandemic

In global infrared thermal imaging unit shipments in 2020, Guide Infrared become the world's second-largest thermal imaging manufacturer, with a global market share of 17 percent, following US 'FLIR, ranking first with a market share of 35 percent, according to the latest report by Yole Développement in February.

In addition to Guide Infrared, other Chinese companies, including Hikvision, Ray Willek and Dali Technology, have also made it onto the global top ten list, the report showed.

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Few years ago, I was concerned because FLIR maintained a dominating position with no worthwhile Chinese competitors ( except for Hikvision which had a relatively mediocre offering, obviously).

Now there are atleast four and more. The core equipments for manufacturing them is unknown but seems likely less daunting a hurdle than advanced computing semiconductors.
 
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broadsword

broadsword

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Xsizor said:
China's infrared thermal imagers thrive globally amid pandemic

In global infrared thermal imaging unit shipments in 2020, Guide Infrared become the world's second-largest thermal imaging manufacturer, with a global market share of 17 percent, following US 'FLIR, ranking first with a market share of 35 percent, according to the latest report by Yole Développement in February.

In addition to Guide Infrared, other Chinese companies, including Hikvision, Ray Willek and Dali Technology, have also made it onto the global top ten list, the report showed.

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Few years ago, I was concerned because FLIR maintained a dominating position with no worthwhile Chinese competitors ( except for Hikvision which had a relatively mediocre offering, obviously).

Now there are atleast four and more. The core equipments for manufacturing them is unknown but seems likely less daunting a hurdle than advanced computing semiconductors.
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The infrared thermal imagers I see at the entrance of buildings are all MIC.
 
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antonius123

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dfrtyhgj said:
2021: 28nm
2022: 14nm
2023: 7nm
2024: EUV
2025: Made in China 2025 baby!
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But in year 2025, 2nm will be widely used and mass produced already and 1nm may be available already; China has to be on 3nm and mass produce 5nm at least at that time, this to keep the distance of 2 generation with the market leader maintained at least.
 
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antonius123

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antiterror13 said:
Yeappp especially for 7nm and below, extremely high capital cost ... nowhere to sell, I can smell the massive bankruptcy here
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It wont. Because the current investment is still behind the demand. Even 5nm and 3nm production facility is already fully booked. TSMC enjoy huge profit!

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Blitzo

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antonius123 said:
But in year 2025, 2nm will be widely used and mass produced already and 1nm may be available already; China has to be on 3nm and mass produce 5nm at least at that time, this to keep the distance of 2 generation with the market leader maintained at least.
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I'm pretty sure that is what he was implying -- that is to say, the emergence of a domestic EUV line being the bottleneck to gradually enable processes of below 7nm.

Also, "widely used" is relative.

While those nodes like 2nm and 1nm would certainly be in mass production with certain leading edge applications by that time, the number of companies that are able to produce them will be few and the extent of investment needed to get there (or to pursue even smaller processes than that) will be staggering.
Meanwhile, the lion's share of the market will likely still remain at the (at that stage, more mature) processes of 14nm to 7nm, where mastery and scaled production of mature yet market friendly domestic ICs and their sale, can enable the relevant companies and subsuppliers to heavily reinvest in their own ecosystem to catch up faster with the leading edge processes and reach parity in technology.

By the stage that parity of leading edge processes is attained, then it just becomes a matter of scaling and it will be close to game over -- because once scale is achieved, you can bet that China is going to require their own market's demand for chips to be sourced from domestic production where possible, before gradually requiring all market demand for chips to be met by domestic production once technology and scale is reached.
Assuming that China remains the biggest market for semiconductors for the next decade or more... well, eventually the goal is likely to restrict foreign companies from the Chinese market such that those foreign companies and their designers and fabs will gradually fall behind in terms of market share, in turn reducing their ability to reinvest in their own R&D and scaling, and such that they will fall behind in terms of both technology and production scale.
 
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ansy1968

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Bltizo said:
I'm pretty sure that is what he was implying -- that is to say, the emergence of a domestic EUV line being the bottleneck to gradually enable processes of below 7nm.

Also, "widely used" is relative.

While those nodes like 2nm and 1nm would certainly be in mass production with certain leading edge applications by that time, the number of companies that are able to produce them will be few and the extent of investment needed to get there (or to pursue even smaller processes than that) will be staggering.
Meanwhile, the lion's share of the market will likely still remain at the (at that stage, more mature) processes of 14nm to 7nm, where mastery and scaled production of mature yet market friendly domestic ICs and their sale, can enable the relevant companies and subsuppliers to heavily reinvest in their own ecosystem to catch up faster with the leading edge processes and reach parity in technology.

By the stage that parity of leading edge processes is attained, then it just becomes a matter of scaling and it will be close to game over -- because once scale is achieved, you can bet that China is going to require their own market's demand for chips to be sourced from domestic production where possible, before gradually requiring all market demand for chips to be met by domestic production once technology and scale is reached.
Assuming that China remains the biggest market for semiconductors for the next decade or more... well, eventually the goal is likely to restrict foreign companies from the Chinese market such that those foreign companies and their designers and fabs will gradually fall behind in terms of market share, in turn reducing their ability to reinvest in their own R&D and scaling, and such that they will fall behind in terms of both technology and production scale.
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@Bltizo Sir nice summary, SMIC, HUA HONG and other Chinese tech company are focusing their effort in satisfying domestic demand rather than those foreign orders, it is currently laying the foundation of creating a domestic ecosystem. Sir short term that decision seems idiotic after all there are TONS of money to be made because of the chip shortage but the Chinese FABS after tasting sanction had learn their lesson, the US had weaponized trade, additional foreign orders are good but why not established a domestic alternative first since its your own market and secure it. And its perfect timing too with the shortage , the introduction of Chinese domestic 28nm line this year and 14nm next year it will help the expansion of Chinese IC industry.
 
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antonius123

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ansy1968 said:
@Bltizo Sir nice summary, SMIC, HUA HONG and other Chinese tech company are focusing their effort in satisfying domestic demand rather than those foreign orders, it is currently laying the foundation of creating a domestic ecosystem. Sir short term that decision seems idiotic after all there are TONS of money to be made because of the chip shortage but the Chinese FABS after tasting sanction had learn their lesson, the US had weaponized trade, additional foreign orders are good but why not established a domestic alternative first since its your own market and secure it. And its perfect timing too with the shortage , the introduction of Chinese domestic 28nm line this year and 14nm next year it will help the expansion of Chinese IC industry.
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China faces 2 problems regarding the chip:
1. Self sufficiency (as China's import chips much more than oil)
2. Technology gap 2 generation with the leaders.

For problem no 1 it is not so difficult to overcome, China has invest a lot for 28nm and 14nm the technology that is within China's reach and the node that most used in the market now.

But for the problem no 2, it is the most difficult, I dont see China can close the gap with the leader within 5 years ahead if China only follow the same pattern, because of the EUV Lithography which is the marvel of the technology, and seems the moores law is still valid till 1nm or even beyond.

I think China has to invest a lot on R&D of the graphene or photonic chip and push it hard to make it into reality as soon as possible so that china chip performance can reach even surpass the level of the market leaders sooner without the needs of the most advanced EUV litography. It is very urgent for China if China want to be the leader in technology. China can't afford to wait more than 5 years because otherwise during that period Chinese smartphone and telco industry will be at US mercy: US can ban Unisoc/Xiaomi/Oppo/Vivo/Lenovo to get the most advanced equipment and chip to give way Samsung & Apple to rule market in high end products.
 
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antonius123

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Registered Member
Bltizo said:
I'm pretty sure that is what he was implying -- that is to say, the emergence of a domestic EUV line being the bottleneck to gradually enable processes of below 7nm.

Also, "widely used" is relative.

While those nodes like 2nm and 1nm would certainly be in mass production with certain leading edge applications by that time, the number of companies that are able to produce them will be few and the extent of investment needed to get there (or to pursue even smaller processes than that) will be staggering.
Meanwhile, the lion's share of the market will likely still remain at the (at that stage, more mature) processes of 14nm to 7nm, where mastery and scaled production of mature yet market friendly domestic ICs and their sale, can enable the relevant companies and subsuppliers to heavily reinvest in their own ecosystem to catch up faster with the leading edge processes and reach parity in technology.

By the stage that parity of leading edge processes is attained, then it just becomes a matter of scaling and it will be close to game over -- because once scale is achieved, you can bet that China is going to require their own market's demand for chips to be sourced from domestic production where possible, before gradually requiring all market demand for chips to be met by domestic production once technology and scale is reached.
Assuming that China remains the biggest market for semiconductors for the next decade or more... well, eventually the goal is likely to restrict foreign companies from the Chinese market such that those foreign companies and their designers and fabs will gradually fall behind in terms of market share, in turn reducing their ability to reinvest in their own R&D and scaling, and such that they will fall behind in terms of both technology and production scale.
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China competitor now is also invest hugely in chip technology. Soon ASML is about to release next generation EUV Lithography, TSMC will make breakthrough with 1nm, and Intel effort to close the gap with TSMC (Intel has no issue with euv litography like SMIC), following this scenario Intel will achieve parity with TSMC sooner than SMIC.

Although China can play with her huge market like requiring Samsung/Apple to use chinese chip & OS if they want to sell in Chinese market, but this will thwart China as being a leader in digital technology.

It is urgent for China to take another different route, with photonic Chip. I wish Huawei could materialize the application of this photonic with their next high end chip and high end products.
 
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