Chinese semiconductor industry

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broadsword

broadsword

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jfcarli said:
I meant TWO years, really.

They are comparing the first six months of 2021 to the first six months of 2020. So there is a full 12 months gap, i.e., one year.

That means that the 47 percent refers to 12 monts. If you compound 1.47 to the second power, you get 2,16. So, technically you should double about every 22 months give it or take.

I don't know if you remember but this is a geometric progression using the formula (1+i) to the nth power.
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By your estimate, what will be the share of locally made chips of the domestic market in 2025? Just give me an idea.
 
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jfcarli

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t2contra said:
By your estimate, what will be the share of locally made chips of the domestic market in 2025? Just give me an idea.
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Honestly? No idea... unfortunately. But, VERY VERY much of a guess work, I read somewhere that last year China consumed 900 billion different chips. In July it manufactured over 1 billion chips per day or around 350 billion per year. So, I wouldn't be surprized if by the end of the year China is producing around 30 percent of its needed chips. But please DON'T QUOTE ME on this. As I said this is a very rough guesstimate. But I would not be surprized if the actual local production hits about that percentage.

One must bear in mind also, that this includes manufacturing by foreign companies who operate inside China. But it is, in fact, local production.

Now, as far as 2025? No idea, but at this rythm. 50pct is not impossible. I think that the 70pct as per MIC 2025 is rather hard to achieve. But... who knows.

I hope it reaches the 30pct by year end.
 
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ShariQ Ansari

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bettydice said:
Taiwan issue isn't just about technology. The essence of the ongoing tech war between the US and China isn't about technology itself either. People here often only look at the technology and economy aspect. It's all about geopolitics - who controls what and who rules. Technology is just a tool to rule and control. Look at Taliban. They don't have any technology, that doesn't make them surrender to the US. On the contrary, they fight the US to the end even with primitive weapons. Taiwan is militarily better equipped than Taliban. They have rockets and missiles to attack Chinese mainland. They have radars to monitor activities in Mainland. Taiwan island is an ideal military outpost for the US military, right in front of China. That alone is full of use for the US.

Don't wishfully think that Taiwan (or anyone else) will somehow surrender to China just because China is technologically/economically superior to them. Technology or economy on its own doesn't do anything. This is the physical world. The only thing that you can change a thing with is physical force. No matter how advanced technology you have, the one with physical control decides whether that technology is allowed or gets seized. The only rule is physical rule. You can't rule with anything other than physical force. Technology and economy aren't power. Power is something with which you can forcedly do. You can't force anyone with technology or economy. On the contrary, your technology and money can be forcedly blocked or seized. Then you actually need use your physical force to enforce your rule. There is no unification with Taiwan until China uses its military to occupy Taiwan.
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I could guarantee you Taiwanese don't have the will power of that of Taliban, Taliban is been fighting with super powers for many decades.
 
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Agnus

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I would say it is almost physically impossible to create a long running insurgency in Taiwan due to it being an island. Insurgencies still need large supply lines on land to sustain their war effort. Since Taiwan is an island, the only way to do that is supply them by air. Air drops are not reliable enough to make up supply lines that come through the land. Any insurgency on Taiwan won't have means to keep a wide scale insurgency going strong for more than a few months. You will merely see isolated pockets of resistance all over island. These pockets can be easily boxed in with tons of PLA posted over the island. PLA can merely wait them out. If Vietnam was an island, the Vietnam War would be over in a matter of months. If it wasn't for supply lines coming from China, NV wouldn't be keep up the war effort. Taliban clearly get weapons through various land routes all over their country.
 
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huemens

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ansy1968 said:
@huemens bro any news on its plan 14nm project? and is it using domestic equipment in its 12 inch FAB expansion?
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I haven't read anything about it since their announcement in 2019. At the time they said their 14nm would reach mass production by end of 2020. But of course original plans and timelines of all fabs assumed access to foreign equipment.
 
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AndrewS

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jfcarli said:
Honestly? No idea... unfortunately. But, VERY VERY much of a guess work, I read somewhere that last year China consumed 900 billion different chips. In July it manufactured over 1 billion chips per day or around 350 billion per year. So, I wouldn't be surprized if by the end of the year China is producing around 30 percent of its needed chips. But please DON'T QUOTE ME on this. As I said this is a very rough guesstimate. But I would not be surprized if the actual local production hits about that percentage.

One must bear in mind also, that this includes manufacturing by foreign companies who operate inside China. But it is, in fact, local production.

Now, as far as 2025? No idea, but at this rythm. 50pct is not impossible. I think that the 70pct as per MIC 2025 is rather hard to achieve. But... who knows.

I hope it reaches the 30pct by year end.
Click to expand...

China producing 70pct of its chip requirement was always an aspirational target by 2025
Realistically it will take longer to achieve.
 
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