Chinese semiconductor industry

antonius123 said:

China competitor now is also invest hugely in chip technology. Soon ASML is about to release next generation EUV Lithography, TSMC will make breakthrough with 1nm, and Intel effort to close the gap with TSMC (Intel has no issue with euv litography like SMIC), following this scenario Intel will achieve parity with TSMC sooner than SMIC.

Although China can play with her huge market like requiring Samsung/Apple to use chinese chip & OS if they want to sell in Chinese market, but this will thwart China as being a leader in digital technology.

It is urgent for China to take another different route, with photonic Chip. I wish Huawei could materialize the application of this photonic with their next high end chip and high end products.

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All based on ASML tech. Not to confront you here but the Chinese endeavor seems objectively more grand because they have to focus on everything that helps make 7nm and less.

Competing with Intel and TSMC is certainly not easy. But every step China takes is far more impactful due to total vertical integration backing it.

antonius123 said:

China competitor now is also invest hugely in chip technology. Soon ASML is about to release next generation EUV Lithography, TSMC will make breakthrough with 1nm, and Intel effort to close the gap with TSMC (Intel has no issue with euv litography like SMIC), following this scenario Intel will achieve parity with TSMC sooner than SMIC.

Although China can play with her huge market like requiring Samsung/Apple to use chinese chip & OS if they want to sell in Chinese market, but this will thwart China as being a leader in digital technology.

It is urgent for China to take another different route, with photonic Chip. I wish Huawei could materialize the application of this photonic with their next high end chip and high end products.

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Investing into new technologies as alternatives makes sense of course, but pursuing domestic EUVL is more likely to be the most realistic way of closing the gap in technology.
A gap in technology is not a huge issue itself, so long as gaps in technology can be closed with time.

If the US chooses to wholesale block semiconductors of specific nodes to Chinese companies, that's just something that Chinese companies will have to accept --- it means that those companies will have to temporarily exit the market of the most advanced products until domestic semiconductor foundries catch up.


I think it is worth keeping in mind that this is best seen as a war. A war is made up of campaigns, which are in turn made up of battles.
The war itself is one of semiconductor and fundamental technology self sufficiency.
The campaigns of this war include the advancement of various foundational industries that make up technological self sufficiency, and other campaigns include the survival and success of various key relevant industries and players and subsupplier domains. There are certain battles as well, including the success of specific companies in given industries/domains -- but it is important to consider that one can still win the war in the long term even if multiple battles are lost.



The question is a pretty simple one -- how long will it take for China to close the technology gap, and will it be sufficient to achieve the win conditions for the technological war in the context of national geopolitical competition?
I think it is still an open question.

I also think we have to realize that there may be multiple sacrifices and losses in the war, but if victory can be achieved then the long term rewards could be substantial.

Xsizor said:

All based on ASML tech. Not to confront you here but the Chinese endeavor seems objectively more grand because they have to focus on everything that helps make 7nm and less.

Competing with Intel and TSMC is certainly not easy. But every step China takes is far more impactful due to total vertical integration backing it.

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Even if ASML stay idle without R&D, it still take China years to be on par with ASML's current EUV Lithograpy in spite of huge funding from China's government; now imagine that ASML doesnt stay idle, they have more experience, tallents and access (US techs, Carl Zeiss's most sophisticated lense, etc) than SMEE/CEC.

Talking about money for R&D investment, ASML can get a lot of funding for intense R&D of next generation EUV Lithograpy, from their huge revenue/profit, from bond issuance or stock issuance, and even from government support (Dutch, EU, even US). US now is considering ASML as their strategic tools to keep China stay behind US in chip technology.

So it is safe to say that for next 5 years ASML's euv litography still stay ahead of those from China.

antonius123 said:

China faces 2 problems regarding the chip:
1. Self sufficiency (as China's import chips much more than oil)
2. Technology gap 2 generation with the leaders.

For problem no 1 it is not so difficult to overcome, China has invest a lot for 28nm and 14nm the technology that is within China's reach and the node that most used in the market now.

But for the problem no 2, it is the most difficult, I dont see China can close the gap with the leader within 5 years ahead if China only follow the same pattern, because of the EUV Lithography which is the marvel of the technology, and seems the moores law is still valid till 1nm or even beyond.

I think China has to invest a lot on R&D of the graphene or photonic chip and push it hard to make it into reality as soon as possible so that china chip performance can reach even surpass the level of the market leaders sooner without the needs of the most advanced EUV litography. It is very urgent for China if China want to be the leader in technology. China can't afford to wait more than 5 years because otherwise during that period Chinese smartphone and telco industry will be at US mercy: US can ban Unisoc/Xiaomi/Oppo/Vivo/Lenovo to get the most advanced equipment and chip to give way Samsung & Apple to rule market in high end products.

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@antonius123 hello bro, regarding #2 ,I try to be an optimistic person since its China we're talking here....hehehehe having been surprise many times, by 2025 if all the projection plan pan out then a generation behind may not look bad (SMIC 3NM TO TSMC 2NM). If Huawei 14nm 3d chipset can be produce next year then that solved their mid range phone chip problem and if SMIC is brave enough to proceed and produced their 7nm N+2 then its ideal. We had the CORE COMPETENCY right now while waiting for the domestic equipment to mature. I'm anxious just like you and I'm concerned but all we had to do is wait which is vexing....LOL

antonius123 said:

Even if ASML stay idle without R&D, it still take China years to be on par with ASML's current EUV Lithograpy in spite of huge funding from China's government; now imagine that ASML doesnt stay idle, they have more experience, tallents and access (US techs, Carl Zeiss's most sophisticated lense, etc) than SMEE/CEC.

Talking about money for R&D investment, ASML can get a lot of funding for intense R&D of next generation EUV Lithograpy, from their huge revenue/profit, from bond issuance or stock issuance, and even from government support (Dutch, EU, even US). US now is considering ASML as their strategic tools to keep China stay behind US in chip technology.

So it is safe to say that for next 5 years ASML's euv litography still stay ahead of those from China.

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Nope, Chinese government revenue is 3 trillion USD per year, ASML sales is $14 billion Euros.


As someone in the industry, it's not so much EUV is hard as the question of verifying every component for process compatibility. The basic principles are not hard, even of the parts. The big difficulty is verification which is tedious and expensive, but not hard relative to what you think it is.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Nope, Chinese government revenue is 3 trillion USD per year, ASML sales is $14 billion Euros.

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As someone in the industry, it's not so much EUV is hard as the question of verifying every component for process compatibility. The basic principles are not hard, even of the parts. The big difficulty is verification which is tedious and expensive, but not hard relative to what you think it is.

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Funding is one variable, there is other important variables: talents and accumulated experience, for these area ASML win, SMEE/other Chinese vendor still need to accumulate these.
China can flood SMEE with unlimited funds but the bottle neck to race with ASML will be the talent and accumulated experience that can't be equated by China at this moment.

The fact it is only ASML alone that can offer EUV Lithography after 35 years research talk much about the difficulty.

antonius123 said:

Funding is one variable, there is other important variables: talents and accumulated experience, for these area ASML win.
China can flood SMEE with unlimited funds but the bottle neck to race with ASML will be the talent and accumulated experience.

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ASML has a ton of experience in system development but the biggest and hardest bottleneck is components like mechanized stage and light source. However those are niche products where ASML might be the sole customer. Thus they aren't really subject to competitive market forces, they are essentially funded by ASML.

In such a situation you just need to match ASML funding.

The systems side China has already worked on since integration and verification for many parts i.e. parts cleanliness and gas delivery systems has been done for other systems like etchers.

FairAndUnbiased said:

ASML has a ton of experience in system development but the biggest and hardest bottleneck is components like mechanized stage and light source. However those are niche products where ASML might be the sole customer. Thus they aren't really subject to competitive market forces, they are essentially funded by ASML.

In such a situation you just need to match ASML funding.

The systems side China has already worked on since integration and verification for many parts i.e. parts cleanliness and gas delivery systems has been done for other systems like etchers.

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Exactly.

There is Wassenaar Arrangement that US can use to prevent China from obtaining such components including light source etc, so it is not about competitive market force anymore. If the coverage still not include these items now, it could be, by US intention to thwart China. So funding alone won't be enough.

Huawei: "I'll be back."

@WTAN @krautmeister @FairAndUnbiased @foofy Sir it had a lot of technical jargon and the author seems confident, need your opinion if his confidence is justify?

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