Chinese semiconductor industry

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ougoah

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quantumlight said:
One of America strategic goals is to force the world to reroute supply chain around China, for everyone to all decouple from China, and for the world to isolate China esp. in terms of trade, tech, economics...

A complete blanket chip embargo and ban will achieve this, at great cost to everyone but US sees its hegemony at stake and short of nuclear war this is it

Almost all products use chips these days. Say tomorrow US bans all intel and amd chips from entering China, zero exports... Well Dell laptops that are made in China will cease production... Dell isnt going to rework their product line to support a SMIC chip even if there was one, they will simply be forced to move their assembly line to india vietnam mexico etc

Even if China catches up in five years, by then the vast majority of global companies will have been forced to move their supply chains and factories out of China...

See the picture now?
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Okay I appreciate the seriousness of that situation and like I said, it's certainly a economic threat to China (and the world) but it's not an existential one like nuclear. Of course it could become so devastating that it approaches the destructiveness of a war but it isn't and remains to be seen just how bad.

I'm very opposed to the attitude of Taiwan is helping the Americans and complying with their demands... we must make Taiwan pay. That is a lowly way to interpret the situation indeed.
 
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ansy1968

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Registered Member
hashtagpls said:
As a taiwanese i'll say it: TSMC can't be allowed to survive for what it did. Neither can Apple or Qualcomm.

When Chinese fabs are making cutting edge chips in mass production, the PLAAF should conduct an Israeli style air strike on TSMC fabs in taiwan and sanction rare earths going to any US mainland fabs.
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@hashtagpls bro which part of Taiwan do you live, my sister had a flat Keelung and also one in Taipei. When this pandemic is over I'll plan to visit her just to say hello and go out fishing with my brother in law, maybe we can go out and had some drink.
 
quantumlight

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
ougoah said:
Okay I appreciate the seriousness of that situation and like I said, it's certainly a economic threat to China (and the world) but it's not an existential one like nuclear. Of course it could become so devastating that it approaches the destructiveness of a war but it isn't and remains to be seen just how bad.

I'm very opposed to the attitude of Taiwan is helping the Americans and complying with their demands... we must make Taiwan pay. That is a lowly way to interpret the situation indeed.
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Its now a game of who can pull the rug out from underneath the other guy first...

America achikillies hill is the US dollar and China must go full tilt on dual circ and digital Yuan and take down the dollar before US takes down China
 
horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
hashtagpls said:
As a taiwanese i'll say it: TSMC can't be allowed to survive for what it did. Neither can Apple or Qualcomm.

When Chinese fabs are making cutting edge chips in mass production, the PLAAF should conduct an Israeli style air strike on TSMC fabs in taiwan and sanction rare earths going to any US mainland fabs.
Click to expand...
Easy comrade, let it play out.

Relationships are important in business. Without relationships, there will be no business done.

Everyone gets their shit from TSMC. Yet, how come we do not hear about China having to stop production, and only American companies have to stop production due to a shortage of chips?

Then the rumours that a lot of companies stockpiled chips. Apparently they were all Chinese and Korean, and no one else. To stockpile chips, someone must crank them out.

What exactly did TSMC do?

But ... there ... there is the catch-22 ...

The Americans being a suspicious people, will accuse TSMC and that Chai woman of them making a stockpile of chips for the Chinese and leaving it short for America! Uncle Sam is angry! But the catch-22 applies because TSMC is the only game in town.

There does not seems to be a disruption in Chinese factory production due to the chip shortage. Let's leave it at that. Do not want others to ask too many questions.
 
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
quantumlight said:
Almost all products use chips these days. Say tomorrow US bans all intel and amd chips from entering China, zero exports... Well Dell laptops that are made in China will cease production... Dell isnt going to rework their product line to support a SMIC chip even if there was one, they will simply be forced to move their assembly line to india vietnam mexico etc

Even if China catches up in five years, by then the vast majority of global companies will have been forced to move their supply chains and factories out of China...

See the picture now?

IC is the chokepoint, and what happened to Huawei will happen to all companies in China when US goes full chip embargo.

Back in early 2019 Ren was smirking saying he can offer Apple to use Kirin 5G chipset..... look how fast tables turned, Apple is going into its own chip fab with TSMC moving to US and Kirin is dead in water with no way to fab its designs and Honor had to be sold...

Now imagine this happening to DJI, Xiaomi, BYD, Anker, all the major Chinese brands and tech companies... it would be game over for China
Click to expand...

And those things are sort of their's to move. It also ignores the fact that China needs to have competitors to those things on the international market and alternatives to those at least for domestic use. It's a fact that China is behind the curve on lithography and fab. That's China's problem to overcome and something the declining empire will use against it and why shouldn't it. Those assembly lines of their products are theirs to move. It's already very favouring for China that they are so hard to move and harder yet to set up roots. China should be using it as an opportunity to create good competition. If it fails to do so, it's China's own fault.

Losing Dell and Apple assembly lines is very far from a existential threat and already not that much of an economic one. China's like a millionaire complaining about potentially losing $100K at most and members supporting it shouting bloody murder. Planting those few remaining assembly lines elsewhere is also a cost to the US and those businesses.
 
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
horse said:
Easy comrade, let it play out.

Relationships are important in business. Without relationships, there will be no business done.

Everyone gets their shit from TSMC. Yet, how come we do not hear about China having to stop production, and only American companies have to stop production due to a shortage of chips?

Then the rumours that a lot of companies stockpiled chips. Apparently they were all Chinese and Korean, and no one else. To stockpile chips, someone must crank them out.

What exactly did TSMC do?

But ... there ... there is the catch-22 ...

The Americans being a suspicious people, will accuse TSMC and that Chai woman of them making a stockpile of chips for the Chinese and leaving it short for America! Uncle Sam is angry! But the catch-22 applies because TSMC is the only game in town.

There does not seems to be a disruption in Chinese factory production due to the chip shortage. Let's leave it at that. Do not want others to ask too many questions.
Click to expand...

What you're hinting at has been exposed plenty of times in the past but angry folks still want to shout bloody murder for perceived wrongs. I think the western anger and treatment of asians (true feelings and treatment when the veil of civility show cracks) is really helping China advance her message in the socio-economic world. Plenty of these people are talented and experienced folks who are at the very least beginning to question their neo-liberal western programming. Some of these are converted into tangible progress.
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
ougoah said:
Oh China can already fab up to 12nm processes??

I thought the best China could fab itself was 28nm. So even its absolute weakest aspect in semiconductors is basically only one step behind the absolute world leading and even that world leading is almost totally dependent on supply chains that involve Netherlands, Korea, Japan, USA, Germany, and Taiwan.

China is closest to being able to do everything under its roof with the only other closest being US, Japan, and Korea? I guess US has it all and Intel is trying to do 7nm. The others also have no reason for self sufficiency unless they're worried about distant future relations with the US or interested in self determination lol.
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No country able to do everything under its roof, including the US

The US doesn't have company as advanced as TSMC, ASML, etc. YES it is true that the US hold many (not all) core technologies, but it doesn't mean can do everything by itself ... far far from it

So, actually China is the first country is able to do that
 
hashtagpls

hashtagpls

Senior Member
Registered Member
ougoah said:
TSMC didn't do anything to China. Just stop with this sort of thinking. It makes Chinese people who support PRC and CCP by association, seem that much more unreasonable.

TSMC having manufactured chips in the past for some mainland customers is just a bonus from an era of pre-escalation tech war. Even if they are banning supply themselves, they are not at fault. This is war. Factions act accordingly. They haven't attacked China or anything and being complicit in denying supplies isn't their choosing and even if it was, it's perfectly understandable and predictable. Would China sell J-20 technologies to India or to Taiwan? Why should US and co sell to China what it doesn't have? Why do adversaries need to be accommodating else F them and they need to be killed when you get power? That's horrible.

The issue between mainland and Taiwan is almost entirely political. Nothing more. The rest is just drummed up propaganda routines that have warped the senses on both sides... at least the people that consume and become manifestations of extremist thinking. Nothing should be condemned to "not allowed to survive" for perceived grievances. I mean do you honestly believe Taiwan should allow China make the latest and greatest chips while the mainland's desire is for reunification where the Taiwanese establishment faces existential threat?
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From my viewpoint, any action done to prevent China's resurgence is an act to perpetuate white anglo supremacy and that includes traitor Tsai and any taiwanese engineers giving away the IP on foundries to the white anglo americans.
I'm with @quantumlight on this one, i'd much rather the world go through a year or two of no chips than another century of white anglos dominance.

Think of it this way, back in the 80s, the Japanese gave the entire IP crown jewels of Toshiba to the white anglos and what did they do with it? Did they build better green tech to improve human lives? Build off world colonies? wormhole tech?
No, they sat on the technology and what white anglo companies that did initially profit from it went into the ground as Intel did with its fab earlier this decade.
Giving technology to a lazy race of white supremacists whose general population are anti science and pro violence is like giving a fish a bicycle.
Humanity will be set back another millennium if the white anglos are in charge.
ansy1968 said:
@hashtagpls bro which part of Taiwan do you live, my sister had a flat Keelung and also one in Taipei. When this pandemic is over I'll plan to visit her just to say hello and go out fishing with my brother in law, maybe we can go out and had some drink.
Click to expand...
sounds good bro, i'm from down south in kaohsiung, heartland of DPP territory lol.
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
hashtagpls said:
From my viewpoint, any action done to prevent China's resurgence is an act to perpetuate white anglo supremacy and that includes traitor Tsai and any taiwanese engineers giving away the IP on foundries to the white anglo americans.
I'm with @quantumlight on this one, i'd much rather the world go through a year or two of no chips than another century of white anglos dominance.

Think of it this way, back in the 80s, the Japanese gave the entire IP crown jewels of Toshiba to the white anglos and what did they do with it? Did they build better green tech to improve human lives? Build off world colonies? wormhole tech?
No, they sat on the technology and what white anglo companies that did initially profit from it went into the ground as Intel did with its fab earlier this decade.
Giving technology to a lazy race of white supremacists whose general population are anti science and pro violence is like giving a fish a bicycle.
Humanity will be set back another millennium if the white anglos are in charge.

sounds good bro, i'm from down south in kaohsiung, heartland of DPP territory lol.
Click to expand...
@hashtagpls hey bro, I've been there traveling by train, I used the same train that derailed last couple of weeks stopping by Hualin. Its a enjoyable ride by the coast truly spectacular. Well will contact you asap after surviving this damn pandemic and lets eat some Taiwanese durian and pineapple and sent some to @Crang ....LOL
 
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