@Chish its a catch 22 for them ,being a leader you have to be ahead of the curve, but now security triumph economics and since TSMC had chosen side, she had to carry that burden and let see if the Chinese can willingly forgive. That will be bitter coming from your own kin, stabbing you instead of helping in time of your needs.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Whats the deal with Hua Hong semiconductor? SMIC grabs all the attention, but this firm is also capable of 28nm. Is there a reason it doesnt get more attention?
@HybridHypothesis well that answer your question they're not a threat being stuck at 28nm unlike SMIC who had advance node processes. I think Hua Hong is a state run business?
Oh China can already fab up to 12nm processes??
I thought the best China could fab itself was 28nm. So even its absolute weakest aspect in semiconductors is basically only one step behind the absolute world leading and even that world leading is almost totally dependent on supply chains that involve Netherlands, Korea, Japan, USA, Germany, and Taiwan.
China is closest to being able to do everything under its roof with the only other closest being US, Japan, and Korea? I guess US has it all and Intel is trying to do 7nm. The others also have no reason for self sufficiency unless they're worried about distant future relations with the US or interested in self determination lol.
As a taiwanese i'll say it: TSMC can't be allowed to survive for what it did. Neither can Apple or Qualcomm.
When Chinese fabs are making cutting edge chips in mass production, the PLAAF should conduct an Israeli style air strike on TSMC fabs in taiwan and sanction rare earths going to any US mainland fabs.
TSMC didn't do anything to China. Just stop with this sort of thinking. It makes Chinese people who support PRC and CCP by association, seem that much more unreasonable.
TSMC having manufactured chips in the past for some mainland customers is just a bonus from an era of pre-escalation tech war. Even if they are banning supply themselves, they are not at fault. This is war. Factions act accordingly. They haven't attacked China or anything and being complicit in denying supplies isn't their choosing and even if it was, it's perfectly understandable and predictable. Would China sell J-20 technologies to India or to Taiwan? Why should US and co sell to China what it doesn't have? Why do adversaries need to be accommodating else F them and they need to be killed when you get power? That's horrible.
The issue between mainland and Taiwan is almost entirely political. Nothing more. The rest is just drummed up propaganda routines that have warped the senses on both sides... at least the people that consume and become manifestations of extremist thinking. Nothing should be condemned to "not allowed to survive" for perceived grievances. I mean do you honestly believe Taiwan should allow China make the latest and greatest chips while the mainland's desire is for reunification where the Taiwanese establishment faces existential threat?
I agree with your stance, the worry is if China cannot catch up and get more and more behind...
IC is the crucial component in the 4th industrial revolution... without chips China would be like Japan without oil during WWII. If China fall back in semiconductors it will fall back on AI and everything else.. this is make or break for Chinese civilization survival moment. in the 21st century a fallback like this is cumulative and China could be back to third world within a decade
Some here say EUV for China is 10 times harder than making Hbomb
Others say Moores Law will never die and 2nm is coming soon
China has a five year window, if China sees it cannot catch up, it needs to surgical strike TSMC NOW not later
Say China take wait and see, so by 2025 China EUV failed, by then TSMC moved to US Arizona, what good is retaking TW or capturing TSMC when they already rehomed in America?
See where the wait and see Biden administration got China? Waste of time... just assume the absolute worst case scenario and proceed on!!
If China feels the situation is hopeless it should strike now (just send missiles) and this will set back world EUV by couple years and give China more time as well as level the field no pun intended and bridge the gap
Two can play this scortched earth game, by striking TSMC and doing rare earth ban, no one will be having hitech IC in the next couple years... so be it
Ill gladly accept that nvidia gpu will be selling for $50000 if it means my motherland gets a fighting chance
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Then how stupid was it and is it to not put this as the greatest national priority then if it truly is a question of surviving the next decade until China could develop EUV.
Why wouldn't the US press those buttons if this is the case? How could any Chinese planner not have considered this? Truth must be they have and started preparing much earlier than said. So much so that Chinese domestic industry isn't really all that far behind if we consider the big picture. No other nation has the full ecosystem (except US control) and in every aspect except EUV and EPA, China is either at league with the best or about half a step behind. This isn't like Japan without oil. People actually need energy for survival.
With this, at worst, some Chinese electronics products become less competitive and those businesses lose market share and income. This is FAR from existential. Chinese domestic supplies and fabs can produce chips for the functioning of society and 28nm and 12nm processes are still just current gen to a generation old.
Rare earth ban can help China for dealing with the downtime as it works on EUV and whatnot but it may not even be worth that depending on how the challenge is stacking up.
As for scorched earth? Seriously? Hoping Chinese leaders aren't this petty about this stuff, especially on their own people - Taiwanese. For every FLG promoting, demented Taiwanese liar/hater, there is a neutral one and a pro-mainland one.
@ougoah I'm with you bro, but it will be difficult, the Chinese have long memories and are very gracious to those people who help them, let see if the Chinese is in forgiving mode, within 5 years if all the planned semiconductors indigenization came to fruition, whether they will declare an import substitution or not. If they did the upside is that with shrinking market share TSMC as a private company may let go those experience and skill workers and they may find employment in the mainland just as @WTAN @Oldschool mentioned. So my brothers there is no reason to bomb TSMC nor Taiwan, there are other peaceful means for exacting punishment...LOL as our ancestor once said " why destroy something that you owned"
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One of America strategic goals is to force the world to reroute supply chain around China, for everyone to all decouple from China, and for the world to isolate China esp. in terms of trade, tech, economics...
A complete blanket chip embargo and ban will achieve this, at great cost to everyone but US sees its hegemony at stake and short of nuclear war this is it
Almost all products use chips these days. Say tomorrow US bans all intel and amd chips from entering China, zero exports... Well Dell laptops that are made in China will cease production... Dell isnt going to rework their product line to support a SMIC chip even if there was one, they will simply be forced to move their assembly line to india vietnam mexico etc
Even if China catches up in five years, by then the vast majority of global companies will have been forced to move their supply chains and factories out of China...
See the picture now?
IC is the chokepoint, and what happened to Huawei will happen to all companies in China when US goes full chip embargo.
Back in early 2019 Ren was smirking saying he can offer Apple to use Kirin 5G chipset..... look how fast tables turned, Apple is going into its own chip fab with TSMC moving to US and Kirin is dead in water with no way to fab its designs and Honor had to be sold...
Now imagine this happening to DJI, Xiaomi, BYD, Anker, all the major Chinese brands and tech companies... it would be game over for China
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