Chinese semiconductor industry

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antiterror13

Brigadier
Moore law died a long time ago.... back in the golden age of desktop computing I remember as a kid every year a new computer at Best Buy was twice as fast as the previous... Nowadays I upgraded to 9900k intel last year, after running the 4790k from over six years ago, saw basically zero improvement...

So CPU is dead, what about GPU where all the buzz is at? Well even here it is slowing down... nevermind there is no inventory and Nvidia is doing paper launches, back in 2016 I got the top of the line state of the art GPU at the time, the GTX980 for about $599 at Fry's ... today I got the top of the line RTX3090 which MSRP for much higher at $1499 but as you know there is almost zero inventory so I had to buy it on craiglists from scaplers at inflated cost of almost $3000 (right now its almost $3500) so basically its gone 5X more expensive... not to mention it takes up ALL THREE PCI slots in my machine and uses TWICE the power, produces TWICE or more in HEAT, all for marginal improvements... So it costs way more, uses way more energy, produces way more waste/heat, and takes up way more space...

Then its not even truly 4k. Even with the RTX3090 I cannot play Cyberpunk in 4k with RTX because it requires a "cheat" in the form of DLSS which is fancy term of saying using Nvidia "AI" to smartly upscale a lower resolution video image... so basically 4k is not even true 4k, its 1080p upscaled to 4k using "AI" ...

So don't tell me Moore's Law isn't dead, I see it got stepped on the neck with my own eyes... Plus you cannot get smaller than one atomic anyway, that is the hard barrier not counting quantum tunneling and other physical limits, so "never happened" is like those Peak Oil deniers who say "we will never run out of oil" not knowing in any finite environment everything will peak

Moore's Law is not about the size of lithography .. but the number of transistors double every 1.5/2 years. You still could do that with the same size of litography ... 3D Chip is one of the options
 

mderfox

New Member
Registered Member
Ah thats gonna take a long time, you know?

Until then the US can ban chinese companies from using TSMC.
This gonna be long road ahead. US sanction is targeted. Many Chinese company including SOE still using TSMC as their foundry. If US full ban Chinese company from using TSMC, war will breakouts.

Its required trade of in diplomatic level. So far China doesn't have enough card in their hand to play out. for example many US big tech company is defense contractor, but China government doesn't dare to sanction them in ground of national security. company like TI,IBM,Microsoft,Airbus,Boeing heck even E&Y(auditor) is defense contract neither of this company get banned except Boeing subsidiary.

There is no remedies in current situation. As Huawei sanction, Xiaomi get profit. High end Xiaomi still using Qualcomm. US company profit and spend more money on research while Chinese company need to cut R&D budget. Gap become widen if product didn't sell to market. Big company like Huawei easy to find new growth and profit model but supply chain devastated. Its not easy to restarted supply chain again even US lift sanction near future.
 

bettydice

Junior Member
Registered Member
China would probably get on top of EUV and EDA before reunification. Forceful reunification means there won't be a TSMC. Reunification through peaceful means will take much longer.

And also what are you on about? Important Chinese companies have long been banned from using TSMC production.
Are you suggesting that the Taiwanese will destroy their own TSMC facilities in the case of forceful reunification? Even in that case, there won't be a TSMC for the West either.

I think reunification through peaceful means is not plausible, close to fantasy.

I think China needs to act on Taiwan together with Russia's action on Ukraine. The longer China waits, the less the chances. Taiwan's military becomes more damaging. The US now disregards one China policy and is strengthening diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Next step might be that the US includes Taiwan in the Quads and deploys military weapons and troops in Taiwan. Doing nothing means the US will take all.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Are you suggesting that the Taiwanese will destroy their own TSMC facilities in the case of forceful reunification? Even in that case, there won't be a TSMC for the West either.

I think reunification through peaceful means is not plausible, close to fantasy.

I think China needs to act on Taiwan together with Russia's action on Ukraine. The longer China waits, the less the chances. Taiwan's military becomes more damaging. The US now disregards one China policy and is strengthening diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Next step might be that the US includes Taiwan in the Quads and deploys military weapons and troops in Taiwan. Doing nothing means the US will take all.
Taiwan would absolutely blow up the TSMC foundries if it saw that defeat was inevitable. And in case you didn't notice, the US has blackmailed TSMC and it is now building foundries in Arizona (I think..) so that it can have domestic capacity and to recruit(brain drain..) Taiwanese employees
 

NiuBiDaRen

Brigadier
Registered Member
Taiwan would absolutely blow up the TSMC foundries if it saw that defeat was inevitable. And in case you didn't notice, the US has blackmailed TSMC and it is now building foundries in Arizona (I think..) so that it can have domestic capacity and to recruit(brain drain..) Taiwanese employees
Just destroy TSMC. Starting from afresh, America will suffer more.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Are you suggesting that the Taiwanese will destroy their own TSMC facilities in the case of forceful reunification? Even in that case, there won't be a TSMC for the West either.

I think reunification through peaceful means is not plausible, close to fantasy.

I think China needs to act on Taiwan together with Russia's action on Ukraine. The longer China waits, the less the chances. Taiwan's military becomes more damaging. The US now disregards one China policy and is strengthening diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Next step might be that the US includes Taiwan in the Quads and deploys military weapons and troops in Taiwan. Doing nothing means the US will take all.

No it's not limited to that. TSMC is setting up shop in the US are they not?

I doubt a forceful reunification will end up with TSMC on Taiwan intact. Do you think it will be?

Russia's action in Ukraine will be ignored by the west in terms of military action. If they won't ignore it, they wouldn't be delaying Ukraine from joining NATO and the defence pact. Forceful reunification with Taiwan may or may not be the correct move and is certainly fraught with danger and uncertainty. Just because peaceful means is not plausible according to your opinion, doesn't mean China goes in guns blazing and risk all the build up for little return. Face it, Taiwan means very little beyond the sanctity of Chinese sovereignty and symbolic of its completed transformation from the "old China" into the new. In terms of material value, it is like risking 99% for a 1% gain. A fool's gambit.

I just wanted to point out how stupid it sounds to believe that a war on Taiwan would claim some TSMC tech. China's overcoming of EUV and EPA isn't limited to "must conquer Taiwan".

US owns Taiwan pretty much. If they didn't why would Taiwan set up TSMC in US at the behest of the US? Why would TSMC comply with bans which take money away from their pockets?

If Taiwan allows US to deploy military assets on its land, then that's another issue. Of course that would push mainland into reunification through force.

Sometimes I feel a lot of you new members are hot headed and underinformed adolescents with no grasp on reality.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
If a company really wants to sell to China, wouldn't it be possible by moving to another country? Countries can block foreign takeover of their companies, but they can't block their companies leaving the country, can they?
Well the company can transfer its global HQ outside EU to sell if necessary. However China might want access to the employees as well as patents, facilities etc, and not just a shell company.

There are still ways to sell but it would need significant efforts from the Italian company and so it may as well lower its price by 100m Euros and just sell to another company
 
D

Deleted member 15949

Guest
Broad question for the thread, it's my very basic understanding of this field that China has been cut off from being able to purchase EUV and EDA tools recently for the purposes of producing China's own advanced chips that require certain fab technologies to be made either inside mainland China or in Taiwan by US policy controlled groups like TSMC. Did Dutch, Japanese, or Taiwanese suppliers sell any tools and equipment before recent bans? As long as China has some machinery, couldn't they use them to manufacture state of their own state of the art chips until the 2nm and 5nm processes become mainstream and minimise the gap before China's own EUV and EDA supplements/alternatives are ready? Assuming they have some of those machines already before the bans were enforced.
EUV is controlled, EDA is not
 
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