@Oldschool bro like you I'm perplex by CCP inaction, they're so calm, I don't know if that is a sign of confidence or resign to one's fate.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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What exactly do you want them to do that they haven't done? They've expanded financing for EDA firms, for equipment firms, for fabless designs, for foundries and for OSATs; they've expanded educational access, cut taxes for IC firms and are going to expand R&D funding as evidenced by the 14th FYP. More screaming about lithography isn't going to change the progress rate
The last part's way too extreme lol. But yeah they should have seen the full extent of it coming when the trade war started. The US wanted a financial victory in the form of trade balances and capital to leave China for good but they can't achieve that victory so they want the next best thing. China seems to be underprepared but making execs shunned and branding them traitors is way too far. The US also depend a lot on Chinese supply chains for their economy and plenty of businesses. The Chinese won't ban them because they want money. The Chinese just didn't expect the Americans to cut off their own noses to spite the face in this way. No matter the losses, they consider blocking Chinese advancement that is made possible by semiconductors to be worth the losses in sales. Perhaps they are right but it remains to be seen just how effective the strategy really ends up.
I think Manqiang said it best here - "Even without the tech war, there would be improvements in 3-4 years. You need to grasp the scale and timeline of a struggle instead of being impatient. 3-4 years may be a long time for a personal grudge with a neighbor but this is a tech cold war and we're just starting. That's the scary part for America; it really only has a chance to win if things start falling apart for China from the very start. If China gets past that by getting the momentum injected into its national tech development, it's only going to snowball and get uglier and more hopeless for America from thereon out. And right now, China's showing no signs of crumbling."
It may have been a fact that the US decided to go this far because their intelligence gathering has shown that China is well on its way to semiconductor self reliance in every aspect of the ecosystem and that banning is better than letting China access material now while it still works on self reliance they expected by 2025 to 2030. That's something we simply cannot know for sure.
What? That's because the US is holding the bargaining power. It is up to them to ban access. They lose some money but they think banning and forcing China to go for at least years without state of the art tools is worth it. Why would CCP stop Chinese companies from profiting and progressing in whatever non-involved fields they are in?? Why would China hurt itself to hurt TSMC? If such action would reverse TSMC decisions on fabricating those latest chips for Chinese firms, then sure. But it won't.
No idea what you guys are on about. On this topic, China has nothing to respond with except put their heads to work on the problem, the real problem - self sufficiency. It'll take years more but no doubt the US noticed that China was starting it already or at least had the intentions to get there before 2030 so they issued this tech war now because at least they can stop China from having any state of the art for the time being.
Banning Chinese companies from using TSMC is going to do nothing for the problem and only hurt Chinese companies lol.
They are not going to ban Chinese companies from using TSMC. Chinese companies will continue to use TSMC right after the imminent reunification.
Ah thats gonna take a long time, you know?
Until then the US can ban chinese companies from using TSMC.
China would probably get on top of EUV and EDA before reunification. Forceful reunification means there won't be a TSMC. Reunification through peaceful means will take much longer.
And also what are you on about? Important Chinese companies have long been banned from using TSMC production.
Broad question for the thread, it's my very basic understanding of this field that China has been cut off from being able to purchase EUV and EDA tools recently for the purposes of producing China's own advanced chips that require certain fab technologies to be made either inside mainland China or in Taiwan by US policy controlled groups like TSMC. Did Dutch, Japanese, or Taiwanese suppliers sell any tools and equipment before recent bans? As long as China has some machinery, couldn't they use them to manufacture state of their own state of the art chips until the 2nm and 5nm processes become mainstream and minimise the gap before China's own EUV and EDA supplements/alternatives are ready? Assuming they have some of those machines already before the bans were enforced.
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