Chinese semiconductor industry

And overview of the memory market in China

Domestic investment expansion: NAND/DRAM/logic investment in production lines under construction account for approximately 21%/24%/54% respectively.

According to our incomplete statistics, the total planned production capacity of domestically funded 12-inch wafer fabs currently under construction reaches 1.75 million wafers/month. Except for Pengxin Micro/Pengxinxu/Jita, which cannot obtain accurate investment amounts, the total investment amount reaches US$111.7 billion. , of which NAND (Yangtze Memory) investment accounted for 21%, DRAM (Changxin Storage + Fujian Jinhua) investment accounted for 24%, and the total investment in logic and other production lines represented by SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor accounted for nearly 54%. Logical end: 1) SMIC: The total planned production capacity of the four production lines in Beijing/Shenzhen/Lingang/Tianjin reaches 340,000 pieces/month, and the total investment amount reaches US$26.32 billion. Among them, SMIC Shenzhen will start mass production in 2022, SMIC Beijing will start mass production in 2023H2, SMIC Lingang is building pilot lines, and SMIC Tianjin is under civil construction. 2) Huahong Wuxi - Phase III: Investment of US$6.7 billion, planned 12-inch production capacity of 83,000 pieces/month, planned to complete factory construction and start installing equipment in 2024Q4. Storage side: 1) NAND: Yangtze Memory previously planned to invest US$24 billion in building a 3D NAND Flash factory, with a total planned production capacity of 300,000 pieces/month; technically, Changcun will launch its 232-layer product in 2022. 2) DRAM: Changxin previously planned to invest 150 billion yuan (approximately US$21.7 billion) in the "Changxin 12-inch Memory Manufacturing Base Project", with a total DRAM production capacity of 360,000 pieces/month built in the third phase; technically, Changxin Memory It is also expected to enter stages 1y and 1z. Although the development of domestic storage manufacturers has slowed down in the short term due to the impact of the U.S. BIS list in October 2022, in the long term, as domestic semiconductor equipment gradually breaks through and matures, upstream and downstream resonance, the development and expansion of domestic memory are still worth looking forward to.

Mainland China pattern: Domestic equipment substitution has achieved remarkable results, with total domestic revenue CAGR reaching 54% from 2018 to 2022.

Since 2018, domestic semiconductor equipment companies have entered a stage of rapid development driven by "domestic substitution". In 2022, the revenue related to Northern Huachuang/China Microelectronics/America Shanghai/Tuojing Technology/Huahai Qingke/Xinyuan Micro Semiconductor Equipment Reaching 114.3/38.5/28.7/17.1/14.2/1.38 billion yuan respectively, the compound annual growth rates from 2018 to 2022 are 55%/29%/51%/122%/159%/60% respectively. In the mass testing equipment sector, the revenue scale of Jingce Electronics and Zhongke Feicheng is still low. The overall localization rate of the sector is still less than 5%, and there is huge room for substitution in the future.

In terms of proportion, we pulled the sales revenue of the world's TOP5 semiconductor equipment manufacturers in mainland China from 2018 to 2022, and compared the semiconductor equipment revenue of domestic companies. The calculation found that: 1) In 2018, the proportion of domestic products in mainland China was approximately 5.2%. By 2022 has increased to 14.5%; 2) Among overseas equipment manufacturers, AMAT’s share has dropped significantly, from 42.8% in 2018 to 26.8% in 2022; 3) Domestic equipment manufacturers have made significant breakthroughs, among which, Northern Huachuang’s share has dropped from 2018 to 26.8% in 2022. will increase from 2.4% to 6.8% in 2022. The trend of platform layout accelerates process breakthroughs and competition, and domestic semiconductor equipment companies continue to hone their alpha competitiveness. As the scale of the domestic semiconductor equipment market gradually expands, leading semiconductor equipment companies have begun to rely on their original core advantages of machine tools and process development capabilities to develop from a "single category" to a "platform" model to create N+ for their own development. 1 growth curve. On the basis of silicon etching, PVD, and furnace tube equipment, Northern Huachuang began to develop dielectric etching, CVD and other fields; Tuojing Technology continued to delve into thin film deposition processes, while developing hybrid bonding equipment, aiming at 2.5D/3D packaging market; China Microelectronics has formed a business layout of "full coverage of etching, partial coverage of deposition, and investment layout for mass detection"; Huahai Qingke has opened up the second growth curve - thinning equipment, and also invested in the layout of ion implanters; Shengmei Shanghai Electroplating, Furnace tube products have entered a period of large-scale production, and the third-tier gluing and developing machines and PECVD products are being verified; Xinyuan micro-coating and developing machines continue to increase their volume, and at the same time they are deploying in the field of front-end chemical cleaning; Zhichun Technology has decided to increase its layout of furnace tubes and gluing Develop the track. It is foreseeable that as the domestic semiconductor equipment industry continues to develop at a rapid pace, market competition will become increasingly fierce. Domestic semiconductor equipment companies are expected to continue to hone their alpha competitiveness in the competition, thereby promoting the acceleration of domestic substitution.​