Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

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Interesting info in this article:
They have ordered in August, before new export bans kicked in

It is about $38K per chip, definitely not cheap and way more expensive than Nvidia

Such high prices will push Baidu, Alibaba and the other Chinese giants to design their own AI chips and partner with SMIC for manufacturing. They already have chip designer subsidiaries and it's very possible for them to go to SMIC directly, bypassing Huawei.

The real bottleneck here is SMIC 7nm capacity: they have to increase it and not sell it exclusively to Huawei. Other Chinese actors have to be able to access it for a healthy AI Chinese ecosystem.

SMIC advanced node capacity in this moment in history is a national strategic asset and should be managed as such at national level, and not just from a pure business logic point of view.
keep in mind that each AI server with 8 cards also comes with kunpeng CPU, DRAM, SSD, board & others, so you have to compare this more against A800 DGX or something like that.

But yeah, there is no question Huawei (and to a small degree SMIC) are going to make out like bandits from this


I did some math here. my guess is that next yr, Huawei could make $7B from these sales

As for other players, they actually have to prove they can make product that can compete against Ascend. Unfortunately for them, Ascend has the largest ecosystem & developer pool in China
 

tokenanalyst

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Recently, Shougang Gas signed a contract with Ruineng Company for the "Gas Supply Project of Ruineng Wen Semiconductor Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd." and successfully supplied gas to the semiconductor industry.

Ruineng Wen Semiconductor Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. is a company settled in Shunyi Science and Technology Innovation Park and mainly produces automotive chips. Official news from Shougang Gas shows that in March 2023, leaders of Shougang Gas and professional department personnel went to Ruineng Company for on-site communication and inspection, and the two parties proposed cooperation intentions in nitrogen supply. On July 25, Ruineng Company, after three rounds of internal price comparison procurement processes and internal expert reviews, unanimously believed that Shougang Gas had the advantage in terms of quotation and technical solutions, and determined Shougang Gas to be the supplier of Ruineng Company’s Beijing gas supply project. Finally, the two parties signed the "Gas Supply Project of Ruineng Wen Semiconductor Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd." in early October.

According to previous reports, on September 7, 2022, the Ruineng Wen Semiconductor (Beijing) project held a groundbreaking ceremony. According to Shunyi Kechuang at the time, the Ruineng Wen Semiconductor (Beijing) project planned to invest 940 million yuan, mainly building a 6-inch wafer production line. It is expected to reach full production in 2025 and achieve an annual production capacity of 120,000 wafers, which will provide Hella, Motor vehicle brands such as Piaggio provide services.

Tianyancha shows that Ruineng Wen Semiconductor Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. was registered and established in December 2021, with a registered capital of 400 million yuan, and is 100% owned by Ruineng Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd.

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tokenanalyst

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Ruibao Technology Industrial Park starts construction and builds a research and development base for vacuum testing instruments for semiconductor equipment.​


Chengdu Ruibao Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., which has landed in the Chengdu Future Science and Technology City Intelligent Manufacturing Demonstration Zone, held a groundbreaking ceremony, which marked the official start of the "Ruibao Technology Industrial Park".

According to Chengdu Future Science and Technology City, the Ruibao Science and Technology Industrial Park project has a total construction area of approximately 48,000 square meters and a total investment of 500 million yuan. It mainly builds a R&D and production base for high-end semiconductor equipment, vacuum detection instruments and sensors.

It is reported that Chengdu Ruibao Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as: Ruibao Technology) was established in 1996. It is a national high-tech enterprise integrating R&D, production and sales services. It is also a professional supplier of vacuum testing products. Its products are widely used in semiconductors, new energy, photovoltaics, coatings, pharmaceuticals, aerospace and other industrial fields. Major domestic semiconductor wafer manufacturing plants have entered the testing and verification stage and will gradually form mass production capabilities.

In addition, Ruibao Technology Industrial Park will build a professional national-level vacuum laboratory and testing center, dedicated to promoting industrial development and technological innovation, and making more contributions to solving the "stuck neck" problem in the semiconductor industry

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staplez

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This is the tip of the iceberg. What is publicly known is only a fraction of the sales going on behind the scenes, esp. with high operational security.
While that's true, what I can't wrap my head around is how. When you consider both Ascend and Kirin have to be made by SMIC and both are selling in the upper tens of millions with another chip on the way.

The claim is SMIC can only produce 300,000 300mm wafers a month so about 200 million chips. But that's across 28nm, 14nm, 12nm, and 7nm processes. Just Huawei's claims alone per year would eat all this up and that's assuming there are no defects. So how? Numerically it doesn't make sense.

Plus, with the other GPU companies lining up for the N+2 process, this all seems like black magic.
 

tokenanalyst

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While that's true, what I can't wrap my head around is how. When you consider both Ascend and Kirin have to be made by SMIC and both are selling in the upper tens of millions with another chip on the way.

The claim is SMIC can only produce 300,000 300mm wafers a month so about 200 million chips. But that's across 28nm, 14nm, 12nm, and 7nm processes. Just Huawei's claims alone per year would eat all this up and that's assuming there are no defects. So how? Numerically it doesn't make sense.

Plus, with the other GPU companies lining up for the N+2 process, this all seems like black magic.
Yes something weird must going on. Huawei no only announce an increase in shipments of their smartphone, they will launch a new model the next year and not they are going to supply AI chips to iFlytek but also now to Baidu. A lot of confidence.

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