1/ Good to see the US formalizing its undeclared economic war against China, and even better to see Taiwan island eagerly putting itself on the front lines of containing mainland China's tech industry
很高兴看到美国正式对中国进行不宣而战的经济战,更高兴看到台湾岛急切地把自己放在遏制中国大陆科技产业的第一线
2/ This undeclared economic war is intimately related to the semiconductor shortages currently roiling global supply chains. Specifically, since May of last year, the Tsai regime, Trump/Biden, and TSMC have conspired to deliberately cause a shortage and exploit it to damage China
2/这场不宣而战的经济战,与目前困扰全球供应链的半导体短缺密切相关。具体来说,自去年5月以来,蔡政权、特朗普/拜登和台积电合谋故意制造短缺,并利用短缺损害中国的利益
3/ This is fact not theory. ASML (TSMC's main supplier of EUV machines) admitted as much in its recent earnings call, when it said that after Huawei was sanctioned, TSMC told them it would not need as many new machines to grow capacity...
4/ ...but then, after TSMC and the Tsai regime successfully lobbied the US to sanction SMIC, they turned around and told ASML in Q4 2020 "oops we're going to have a lot more orders" and thereby created a shortage situation by design.
5/ What did the Tsai regime do with the shortage? For one, it tried browbeating BioNTech into breaking its contract with Fosun while Germany was experiencing a shortage of vaccines; for another, it tried getting the Biden admin to endorse a TW indy referendum in August
6/ Neutral observers are less than impressed by this set of moves. One EU executive has privately said "The other China is being more irritating to the global community than Saddam Hussein was in 1990"
7/ This irritation has led to predictable effects in international relations. Note, for example, that the EU is *not* listed in the Nikkei article. And my contacts in both Korean semiconductor majors indicate they will minimize their involvement as much as possible.
8/ Where this gets interesting is how it impacts potential post-conflict diplomacy if China does a Taiwan op. The default assumption seems to be that China would immediately be subject to crippling sanctions and diplomatic isolation...
9/ ...but that might not be the case if non-US economic blocs view Chinese management of the fabs as an acceptable alternative to being hostage to the emotions of the DPP's increasingly irrational base.
10/ Now, the bottleneck here is ASML's main US dependency, Cymer, a US subsidiary which makes the LPP light source in their EUVL machines. If China can research a substitute for that, then in a post-op world, China can provide that IP to ASML and still get the EUVL it needs
11/ The US can stamp its feet about that, but it won't be able to compel global compliance with sanctions, because China's share of relative global demand is so high post-COVID that overseas dollar users would rather abandon the dollar than comply with blanket sanctions on China
12/ Plus, after a Taiwan op, China would own roughly 60% of worldwide semiconductor capacity and 80%+ of the electronics supply chain as a whole. It would be too big to sanction, without levels of pain tolerance in the world that - for the Tsai regime - are simply not there
13/ And last but not least, don't forget the EU is well aware that ASML was hoodwinked by TSMC at the direction of the Tsai regime to create this shortage - and then, the Tsai regime used the resultant shortage to cut ahead of EU citizens in getting vaccines for themselves.
14/ All this means that China's last remaining challenge for the Operation - giving the EU, Korea, and eventually the US a face-saving way to come to terms with the fait accompli - has just been made much easier.
15/ In perhaps a belated recognition of its mistake, the Tsai regime put a dove into the Mainland Affairs Council, but China holds Tsai responsible for stoking the HK riots and knows 武统 is just a matter of time, so this just reshuffles the deck chairs
end/ And with the Tsai regime so enthusiastically trying to hollow out China's economy with a chip shortage, the business community in China isn't in the mood for talks either.
The adults are going to be put back in charge, one way or another.