Chinese semiconductor industry

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hvpc

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I don't think we need to know the exact number of ASML NXT2xxxx machines they will receive, but based on the much greater % of China market revenue for ASML in Q3 & probably part of Q2/Q4, they clearly delivered a lot of expensive ones. Enough for whatever expansion plans SMIC has for the next few years.
Yes
So we may have question of what to do about SMIC's mature process like 28/40nm, since they badly need to expand there too.

Based on what I heard before and please correct me if I'm wrong here, but it's probably easier for a new SMEE Arfi scanner to do trial production & achieve satisfactory yield on 40nm process vs 28nm. I assume they've also stocked up 1970 & 1965 at Jingcheng & Shenzhen fabs during this time.
Larger feature size of 40nm node comes with larger error tolerance, so it’ll definitely make things easier for SMEE.

I don’t think ASML sale NXT1965 or 1970 for awhile now (based on their scanner roadmap). NXT1980 is now their “mid critical” ArFi scanner, basically the lowest ArFi model. Jingcheng and Shenzhen should basically mainly NXT1980 fabs.
So, I just don't see it makes sense to speculate what Dutch govt might do in 1 or 2 years. More important is what ASML actually can ship to China right now and to which fabs. And whether or not it can replace American parts.

As discussed with the Japan sanctions, they don't have anything in their law like what you see with what BIS controls. They've already granted licenses. Assuming that they will have same type of sanctions as US govt is just not reaonable

None of this is to say validation of domestic equipment should slow down, but it is okay to continue to use foreign equipments. And we should expect that they do that
Agree
 

olalavn

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the joint team of Professors Wang Xingjun, Professor Peng Chao, and Researcher Shu Haowen from the School of Electronics of Peking University has achieved a record breakthrough in ultra-high-speed pure silicon modulators, achieving the world's first pure silicon modulator with an electro-optical bandwidth of 110GHz, which was achieved in 2004. After Intel reported the first 1GHz silicon modulator in the Nature journal in 2016, it was the first time in the world that the bandwidth of a pure silicon modulator was increased to more than 100GHz.
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tokenanalyst

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China's silicon carbide wafer production capacity breaks through and is expected to account for 50% of the world's share in 2024​

China's compound semiconductor industry has achieved breakthroughs since 2023, especially in the field of silicon carbide (SiC) growth. The products of many Chinese companies have been recognized by customers and their production capacity has also been significantly increased. Previously, China's silicon carbide materials accounted for only about 5% of the world's production capacity. However, the industry is optimistic that China's silicon carbide wafer share in the world is expected to reach 50% in 2024.
Tianyue Advanced, Tianke Heda, Sanan Optoelectronics and other companies have invested in increasing silicon carbide wafer/substrate production capacity. Currently, the total monthly production capacity of these Chinese companies is about 60,000 wafers. With the release of production capacity by various companies, it is expected that the monthly production capacity will reach 120,000 pieces in 2024, and the annual production capacity will be 1.5 million.
According to industry news and statistics from market research agencies, Tianyue Advanced and Tianke Heda previously accounted for 5% of the global market share, while the world's four leading silicon carbide manufacturers have a much larger share, of which Wolfspeed accounts for 60%. Coherent accounts for 15%, ROHM Electronics accounts for 13%, and SK Siltron accounts for 5%.

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tokenanalyst

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My response may be biased because it’s mainly based on what I hear from KLA.

Nextin product offering is not comprehensive enough to fullly displace KLA. It’s also still at the stage where they are working with fabs to prove their equipment is good enough.

I personally think it’s reasonable to think Nextin may win some order here and there but they are still a bit far from challenging KLA’s dominance. Just my opinion.
What tools exactly KLA have that cannot be replaced by Chinese and non US players. What tools exatly we are talking about here?

Is thin film measurement equipment, Optical CD, CDSEM, X-Ray CD? I personally know that when comes to mask metrology Chinese companies are still pushing to get there but lasertec has eating KLA launch when comes to mask-reticle metrology.



 

european_guy

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I personally think it’s reasonable to think Nextin may win some order here and there but they are still a bit far from challenging KLA’s dominance. Just my opinion.

Nextin invests US$200M to produce wafer inspection tools in China​


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Well, it seems they are selling a bit more than "some order here and there" if they are even planning a (quite expensive) new fab in Wuxi....

US$200M is a big investment for a second tier tool manufacturer with revenues of
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actually it is a monster investment...maybe it is a JV with some local company....
 

hvpc

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Nextin invests US$200M to produce wafer inspection tools in China​


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Well, it seems they are selling a bit more than "some order here and there" if they are even planning a (quite expensive) new fab in Wuxi....

US$200M is a big investment for a second tier tool manufacturer with revenues of
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actually it is a monster investment...maybe it is a JV with some local company....
I should've been more clear to say Nextin could sell 'some order here and there' for advanced node application. I may have mistaken that was implied as I as talking about whether Nextin could replace KLA for advanced process nodes.

I'm not certain, but nest guess is Nextin is trying to take advantage of opportunity from big capacity expansion in mature process nodes in China. What do you think?
 

hvpc

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What tools exactly KLA have that cannot be replaced by Chinese and non US players. What tools exatly we are talking about here?
Is that a rhetorical question or are you genuinely asking for a response?

Perhaps I should turn around and ask you, exactly what tools have Chinese/non-US players replaced KLA?
Is thin film measurement equipment, Optical CD, CDSEM, X-Ray CD? I personally know that when comes to mask metrology Chinese companies are still pushing to get there but lasertec has eating KLA launch when comes to mask-reticle metrology.
Yes, Lasertec had been out dueling KLA with their actinic EUV reticle inspection tool. But not every fab need it. But despite of this KLA still enjoyed record revenue in their reticle inspection division because they have a more complete product offering. Their business from reticle inspection for mature process nodes had been very robust; Lasertec do not really play well against KLA here. So KLA is not exactly suffering.

When it comes to inspection, there's more to it than just detection sensitivity or capability. It's more about signal-to-noise capability. No point in having detection capability to pick up defect of interest but also picking up lots of false positives. KLA had been in this game for a long time, many had challenged them over last few decades but all fall by the waist side. All challengers always demonstrate good capability on test vehicles on detection capability, buy fails during real HVM setting due to false detections. Their differentiation is they accumulated lots of usability enhancing s/w capabilities to deal with HVM related challenges. That and they have an experienced applications and field support infrastructure, which to me is also an important aspect of their dominance and significant market share.
 

Alb

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Is that a rhetorical question or are you genuinely asking for a response?

Perhaps I should turn around and ask you, exactly what tools have Chinese/non-US players replaced KLA?

Yes, Lasertec had been out dueling KLA with their actinic EUV reticle inspection tool. But not every fab need it. But despite of this KLA still enjoyed record revenue in their reticle inspection division because they have a more complete product offering. Their business from reticle inspection for mature process nodes had been very robust; Lasertec do not really play well against KLA here. So KLA is not exactly suffering.

When it comes to inspection, there's more to it than just detection sensitivity or capability. It's more about signal-to-noise capability. No point in having detection capability to pick up defect of interest but also picking up lots of false positives. KLA had been in this game for a long time, many had challenged them over last few decades but all fall by the waist side. All challengers always demonstrate good capability on test vehicles on detection capability, buy fails during real HVM setting due to false detections. Their differentiation is they accumulated lots of usability enhancing s/w capabilities to deal with HVM related challenges. That and they have an experienced applications and field support infrastructure, which to me is also an important aspect of their dominance and significant market share.
KLA might have the best product set but the main issue here is whether Chinese + non American machines are good enough to cover all metrology and inspection tools for advance nodes. If this is the case then SMIC can in theory expand production in its advanced fabs even though the tools used are not best in class.
 

Alb

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I am asking for a response.
In bright-field pattern defect inspection Chinese companies (Jingce) are capable of 65nm only at the moment. There are more advanced models in the R&D phases. I think this the main bottleneck. I know Nextin cover this type of equipment and they seem to be quite advanced, that's why I was asking the question in the first place.
 
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