This is not secret that China started building ssmb at XiongAn in the beginning of this year.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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This is not secret that China started building ssmb at XiongAn in the beginning of this year.
It begins...
Analyst predict that ASML EU shipments next year will drop 20-30% as Apple cuts its 3nm volume needs, and Qualcomm loses Huawei orders.
Analyst predict that ASML EU shipments next year will drop 20-30% as Apple cuts its 3nm volume needs, and Qualcomm loses Huawei orders.
It depends on the time period in which China's LPP EUV is likely to be viable for commercial use, however as it stands, however if that viability emerges sometime in the latter half of this decade, then based on some tentative information that can be surmised, then from the perspective of the range of lithography products that exist in the world, yes China's LPP is likely to be within spitting distance of the global state of the art, and more importantly will give them the ability to iterate to reach and push the boundaries of the state of the art.
SSMB EUV has potential advantages in certain regards that LPP does not have, but with a different cost profile and with a different timeline.
There are real reasons for SSMB to be seen as having advantages to LPP -- SSMB will require much more upfront investment (and will almost certainly take longer to get commercially viable than LPP) but can offer much greater production scale as well as may be more upgradeable for the future and may have benefits for longevity compared to buying new LPP EUV machines every time you want to upgrade.
(This is all very much oversimplifying things by the way)
But as I wrote a few pages back -- people and media who are writing about SSMB in isolation are being stupid.
If we want to be exhaustive about why they are stupid, the most prominent reasons are:
- they make it sound like SSMB is the only method of EUV that China is pursuing
- they make it sound like SSMB is imminent in its availability/viability
- they make it sound like SSMB is a "muh Chinese masterstroke, bypassing silly western LPP EUV with superior synchrotron that also has blackjack and hookers" -- whereas in reality no, China is actively and furiously working on LPP EUV alongside SSMB EUV, and it is very likely that LPP EUV will be viable for commercial use quite a bit earlier than SSMB EUV if the latter ends up viable at all.
I believe the first two factors, and the third "smugness" reason is why the SSMB story has been portrayed by people online and by some news media in an exaggerated way.
Because ultimately, a story of "omg China is pursuing a wholly novel and new and exciting way of doing EUV that isn't LPP" is much more exciting and tantalizing and emotionally satisfying than "China is pursuing multiple methods in pursuit of EUV, and actually it's likely their LPP efforts are going to reach fruition quite a bit earlier than SSMB, the latter of which holds a lot of potential promise but still has a lot to prove before commercial viability".
Ultimately, if something is too emotionally satisfying or too emotionally provocative then chances are it is exaggerated in some form or another.
SSMB easily can do sub-1nm
That doesn't really relate to the question at hand, which was why is SSMB being spoken about so much when it is at relatively early stages of development.
As I said, SSMB has a range of potential advantages relative to LPP, but speaking about SSMB as if it is a done deal or as if it is ahead of China's LPP efforts or speaking about SSMB as if it is the only EUV effort China is doing, is absolutely ludicrous, and the reason why SSMB is being spoken of in that manner is because there are some people and some media who are being stupid.
Allegedly the main reason for the delays is that Intel tried to push the process too hard with DUV. They tried using even more complex multi-patterning than quad patterning (more complex than SAQP). And it was a bust. They ended up having to relax the design rules and having a less dense process to get 7nm to work. Supposedly it will be easier to push through future processes with EUV. Or so they think.
Sir they, meaning the Americans are laying the predicate that China is using SSMB instead of LPP so not to embarrass themselves. After all the sanction implicitly cite EUVL as the one being restricted. I think the US is in the Acceptance stage, they can't stop the Chinese development as shown by allowing SK to continue their operation in China and the Dutch seemingly nonchalant attitude regarding their export of their latest DUVi ( especially NXT 2050i). So why not join the fun and participate? Recession is looming as those NATSEC guys are afraid to aggravate their future employers....lol They will be out of job when Brandon left office and having seen Pompeo, they don't want to experience the same treatment, having to compete with Zeihan and Gordie is not as profitable....lol
A speculation on my part, if everything goes as planned regarding the Chinese EUVL (either LPP or SSMB), we may see SMIC and TSMC at the same level by early 2026 as both maybe producing 3nm. TSMC may delay their 2nm development until 2027, with economic uncertainties and the need to improved their 3nm. Okay too optimistic maybe half a generation behind.
Haha! Haha! You're right brother ansy1968!
Anytime some says, "China, China, China, Chyna!" and "EUV," in the same sentence, that is just an automatic troll job against the American government, in Washington DC, the CIA secret services, and beltway Think-Tank-Landistan.
Remember that Huawei EUV patent that they filed a while ago?
Now, a few months later, who has any idea if it is related to any of this recent stuff?
ROTFLMAO!
The Chinese really know how to troll.
Anytime some says, "China, China, China, Chyna!" and "EUV," in the same sentence, that is just an automatic troll job against the American government, in Washington DC, the CIA secret services, and beltway Think-Tank-Landistan.
Remember that Huawei EUV patent that they filed a while ago?
Now, a few months later, who has any idea if it is related to any of this recent stuff?
ROTFLMAO!
The Chinese really know how to troll.
Bro, why is the American in Acceptance stage? first Sullivan and Blinken are afraid that the Chinese and the Russian will launch a tsunami troll attack that may cost Brandon re-election next year, they seen the damage cause by Huawei Mate P60 7nm chip unofficial launching and that's just one of many, what more IF the Chinese officially announce an operational EUVL or just the SSA 800 28nm DUVi next year, What damage it may done to Brandon re-election bid? The Americans are anticipating it as they try to mitigate now before the problem got too big. The reason why they're trying their utmost to talk to the Russian for a possible ceasefire even willingly overthrow Elenesky to achieved it.Haha! Haha! You're right brother ansy1968!
Anytime some says, "China, China, China, Chyna!" and "EUV," in the same sentence, that is just an automatic troll job against the American government, in Washington DC, the CIA secret services, and beltway Think-Tank-Landistan.
Remember that Huawei EUV patent that they filed a while ago?
Now, a few months later, who has any idea if it is related to any of this recent stuff?
ROTFLMAO!
The Chinese really know how to troll.
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