Chinese semiconductor industry

CMP said:

I don't think this can really be considered a good thing for China. It ensures YMTC will continue to struggle hard for market share.

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Any Chips produced inside China is a good chip. It means workers in those factories are gaining knowhow and experience, suppliers are also getting knowhow and establishing themselves. Finally, if push comes to shove China can easy force a takeover of those factories. So, its a win for China.

As for YMTC, who will be manning the factories for YMTC? Veterans from Korean factories that they are poaching and will continue to poach with higher salaries

tamsen_ikard said:

Any Chips produced inside China is a good chip. It means workers in those factories are gaining knowhow and experience, suppliers are also getting knowhow and establishing themselves. Finally, if push comes to shove China can easy force a takeover of those factories. So, its a win for China.

As for YMTC, who will be manning the factories for YMTC? Veterans from Korean factories that they are poaching and will continue to poach with higher salaries

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Yup either White or Black Cat as long it catches mice.

I don't like this news at all...
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may obtain an indefinite exemption from the U.S. chip export ban.

KYli said:

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Influential US think-tankies are now proposing to get China addicted to foreign high-end chips, just not the requisite equipment to manufacture at home. (source: )

[CSIS Director James Lewis] suggestion is for the US government to "allow chips to go to China" but not the equipment for manufacturing those chips.

This way, as Lewis indicated, would be a win-win situation where the US firms can keep their market share in China while the Chinese brands, such as Oppo and Xiaomi, would still resort to Western chips that have lower price and higher quality.

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In other words, Restore pre-2019 Chinese access to Western high-end chips, while maintain post-Oct 2022 American ban on chip-making equipment to China... and since Western chips have lower price and higher quality, it would keep Chinese OPPO and Vivo dependent and domestics few generations back.

KYli said:

Massive amount of locally produced chips is still a good thing for many domestic users even though YMTC might be under pressure in the short term.

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Memory prices have been falling due to excess supply and dramatic drop in demand. Excess supply will pressure YMTC pressured to lower memory prices and struggle to gain market share. Samsung and SK Hynix is least bad because it's at least mainland fabs employing mainlanders...but still, subject to the ebbs and flows of US elections which could change at any time.

KYli said:

However, Huawei and other sanctioned Chinese companies would eventually need to use YMTC chips in a massive volume so in the long run YMTC should still be the winner.

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Yes, agreed 100%. There should be a soft mandate on YMTC utilization by domestics, otherwise YMTC will struggle on market share. All it takes is one sitting U.S. President to change the unlimited exemption waivers back to one year again, and guess who is leading Republican primary polls... "Fool me once, shame on you ..... Fool me — you can't get fooled again!" - George W. Bush

KYli said:

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If republicans win next year (which I have the feeling they might - opinion not by an American ) then indefinitely means until 2025

CMP said:

I don't think this can really be considered a good thing for China. It ensures YMTC will continue to struggle hard for market share.

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There is a balance between having sufficient market demand to enable domestic players to upscale and having a sufficiently competitive market for the products such that they can remain in action long enough to eventually transition to using more domestic products.

Ultimately domestic players like YMTC will still basically have guaranteed market share for its products because there will still be companies sanctioned who will have to continue relying on them, and with time I expect China to put more restrictions or taxation on foreign products in the Chinese market once domestic players can better scale up to meet capacity which has its own rate limiting steps independent of market demand and money.


In the same way that the emergence of domestic DUV lithography doesn’t mean that SMEE can immediately scale to meet domestic needs (which is why there will still be a place for ASML for some time yet). For DUVL, even if ASML were to try and dump their products once SMEE was able to scale up domestic DUVL production, it would be a fairly simple task for government to place tariffs or restrictions on ASML products to give SMEE products market share.
The above same principles applies for YMTC as well.

Phead128 said:

Influential US think-tankies are now proposing to get China addicted to foreign high-end chips, just not the requisite equipment to manufacture at home. (source:

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In other words, Restore pre-2019 Chinese access to Western high-end chips, while maintain post-Oct 2022 American ban on chip-making equipment to China... and since Western chips have lower price and higher quality, it would keep Chinese OPPO and Vivo dependent and domestics few generations back.

Click to expand...

The likes of Oppo and Vivo and Xiaomi in the smartphone space were never blocked from accessing foreign semiconductors to begin with, from what I recall.

The dynamic hasn’t really changed in that the driver for the pursuit of domestic semiconductors is that other companies like Huawei and others are blocked from accessing the most capable semiconductors (either through purchase or through designing and having them fabbed outside of the mainland), so there will always be a group of customers blocked from accessing foreign semiconductors so the incentive for domestic products will always be there.
The question is thus more one of scaling up and when they can scale up to begin meeting the needs of more than the sanctioned companies but also other customers who do have access to foreign semiconductors (like Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi). Once that stage of capacity is reached, it would be a rather simple task of taxing foreign products or even mandating use of more domestic components — but that also requires those future customers to still stay in business long enough for domestic products to scale up in the first place, and staying in business in the interim isnt harmed by access to foreign semiconductors.

Phead128 said:

Influential US think-tankies are now proposing to get China addicted to foreign high-end chips, just not the requisite equipment to manufacture at home. (source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

)



In other words, Restore pre-2019 Chinese access to Western high-end chips, while maintain post-Oct 2022 American ban on chip-making equipment to China... and since Western chips have lower price and higher quality, it would keep Chinese OPPO and Vivo dependent and domestics few generations back.


Memory prices have been falling due to excess supply and dramatic drop in demand. Excess supply will pressure YMTC pressured to lower memory prices and struggle to gain market share. Samsung and SK Hynix is least bad because it's at least mainland fabs employing mainlanders...but still, subject to the ebbs and flows of US elections which could change at any time.


Yes, agreed 100%. There should be a soft mandate on YMTC utilization by domestics, otherwise YMTC will struggle on market share. All it takes is one sitting U.S. President to change the unlimited exemption waivers back to one year again, and guess who is leading Republican primary polls... "Fool me once, shame on you ..... Fool me — you can't get fooled again!" - George W. Bush

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Too late, I would say. I know many downstream vendors (they are not banned) worked like crazy to switch to domestic chips in the past 3 years.
Trust already broken.

liospopo said:

Too late, I would say. I know many downstream vendors (they are not banned) worked like crazy to switch to domestic chips in the past 3 years.
Trust already broken.

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Yeah, exactly.

The game now is who is gonna stab who in the back first.

I forget, but was this posted before? I really don't remember.



I assume the spikes on the graphs are evidence of the microbunching from the synchrotron aka the particle accelerator.

Here was the published research paper from over a year ago.


I won't read it. I would not understand it. I am just a simple peasant.

I don't even know how much time is a nano-second. I assume that is really fast. Wouldn't that mean a continuous beam of light?

What I hear about 5G is the latency is low, measured in nano-seconds, meaning it is instantaneous, to us humans at least. To superhuman people like Donald Trump, or the Biden people, means nothing, pfff.

It is that other diagram in that paper. They had a detector or sensor at the end of that setup. That detector was able to measure the light directed at it (I assume that is what is happening). In practical peasant terms, in their experiment, they were able to harness the particles in the particle accelerator, and focus that beam of light onto the sensor, to measure the microbunching output.

Cue the dramatic music!

Dun---dun---dunnnnnn!

This is why Huawei's success is so critical.

1) On the demand side, when consumers buy their product, it directly draws in demand for a domestic Chinese supply chain. Even if SK Hynix and Samsung can make memory chips on the mainland, Huawei can't buy it from them.

2) On the supply side, as long as there wasn't a trailblazer (with volume!).... smaller companies that have to survive / gain market share (before thinking about political goals) had no options but to keep going with TSMC / ARM / Cadence / Qualcomm etc. Now? Huawei's entire supply chain out there offering roughly competitive products. Even if it costs 10% more and is 10% less efficient, it's at least a viable option for smaller companies to choose from.

My whole household is moving to Huawei for just this reason.