Chinese semiconductor industry

Status
Not open for further replies.
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
ZeEa5KPul said:
To say the media is stupid is to say water is wet. It's best just to ignore them.

When SSMB will be ready for at least the commercial equivalent of LRIP depends on the nature of the facility being built at XNA and its place on the technological roadmap. If it's a small-scale proof of principle demonstrator then I would say that SSMB EUV would be post 2027 at the earliest. If China's more ambitious and builds an advanced prototype of the intended industrial synchrotron, then we'll see SSMB EUV much earlier, possibly even a Ma Weiming situation between LPP (steam) and SSMB (electromagnetic).
Click to expand...

Yes, my view is that as it stands, however we cut it, the SSMB option is going to emerge years after LPP is expected to be ready, and different to the steam versus EM catapult situation, in the medium to long term it is likely for both LPP and SSMB to be desirable for China's semiconductor industry.

As for ignoring the media, I certainly do not seek out news media but given people post articles here, I am obliged to point out to others at least the idiotic elements of these articles.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
HighGround said:
I think you're talking about this
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Or another article from the same site.

As for Dylan, he is a consultant with fairly decent connections. I think it's highly unlikely that he puts out his best stuff in public. I actually do pay for his reports (I subscribed back when he was only 30$ per month), and the paid sections are considerably better than the public sections. I assume that there is a similar step-up in detail and information for the actual reports he produces for important clients.

I wouldn't jump to conclusions about whether he knows or doesn't know something.
Click to expand...
Connections is good for raw data. But having a BA in business, and with no experience on the ground, means it's harder to separate what you think is credible from what is actually credible.
 
F

Franklin

Captain
All of this couldn’t have happened without US sanctions and bans. The fact is that the US has blacklisted hundreds of items that are banned from being exported to China and China is finding ways to replace them with domestic alternatives. America is helping China to achieve it self-sufficiency goals. And also helped China to accelerate the vertical integration of its industrial supply chain.
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
tphuang said:
What do you mean what can you do about it?

Ramp up your production and make it to all the OEM supply china? Right now, we have a capacity issue that can be addressed over next few years.

When has chinese industries ever stopped once they start to win?
Click to expand...

China's main strength has been moving things from high value to affordable, then leaping up to the top of the value chain.

In this case you're trying to go lower than the low and the result is there is too little money to be made. Semiconductor design talent is super expensive, so you want to pay top dollar for someone to design these low end chips? The economics just aren't there.

Now I am not going to pretend I know a lot about the wireless FEM market, but these are going into things like IOT smart plugs that retail for $20 total, so how much can they be worth? Even that router you showed, 399 RMB, that's $50 US.

On the other hand, I think those entertainment SoCs you mentioned are more valuable as screens are being put into everything. Not sure if you used any "connected" exercise equipment, but I've seen quite a number of these things running Android, which means using similar SoCs. Also, TV providers are moving from proprietary embedded OS set top boxes to customized Android ones of typical Chinese manufacture. So these higher value products are creating new markets on their own and will soak up that capacity.
 
S

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
The China Academy of Engineering released a list of 14 major challenges that China are facing in electronics and information technologies. The third one is about manufacturing of micro-electronics and optoelectronics. What's interesting is that only nodes of 3nm and below are mentioned.

The optimist in me thinks that the authors had in mind the progress and breakthrough on the 7nm node by Huawei and SMIC or whoever makes the Ascend and Kirin chips. And they know that 7nm is now behind of China thus not a challenge anymore. The even more optimistic me feels that, by skipping 6, 5 and 4nm, the authors might believe these nodes are also within the reach by the Chinese fabs in a not too far future.

三、微电子光电子


数字芯片3nm制程已规模量产，并继续向2nm、1nm挺进，但日益逼近物理与工艺极限。三维集成、Chiplet、2.5D/3D封装成为重要发展方向，多样化系统集成，新器件、新结构、新材料探索不断深化。光模块速率向Tb/s演进。硅基光电融合成为重要路径，我国在微电子、光电子先进制造能力与集成芯片设计方面面临重要挑战。
Click to expand...

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
T

tacoburger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Looks like the cat is out of the bag for SSMB EUV, we went from there being almost no western new coverage of SSMB EUV to mainstream media picking the story up and running away with it. Knowing the dinosaurs at Washington and all the semiconductor "analysts" and "experts", this will probably be the first time they have ever heard about it and they're probably panicking and trying to see if they can sanction it to away.

Is this increased news coverage a good thing? On one hand, letting the West know about it isn't good, considering that America will do anything to disrupt it, at this point, I wouldn't rule out anything. On the other hand, letting America know that China is a handful of years away from a next gen EUV light source could get America onto the negotiating table and perhaps get some of the existing sanctions eased or lifted, or to prevent new sanctions in the future, if they suddenly realize how the sanctions are just making China develop new technology to bypass them.

Funny how asianometry FEL EUV video came out on the same day as all this mainstream SSMB EUV news huh.
 
Last edited:
B

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
tacoburger said:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Looks like the cat is out of the bag for SSMB EUV, we went from there being almost no western new coverage of SSMB EUV to mainstream media picking the story up and running away with it. Knowing the dinosaurs at Washington and all the semiconductor "analysts" and "experts", this will probably be the first time they have ever heard about it and they're probably panicking and trying to see if they can sanction it to away.

Is this increased news coverage a good thing? On one hand, letting the West know about it isn't good, considering that America will do anything to disrupt it, at this point, I wouldn't rule out anything. On the other hand, letting America know that China is a handful of years away from a next gen EUV light source could get America onto the negotiating table and perhaps get some of the existing sanctions eased or lifted, or to prevent new sanctions in the future, if they suddenly realize how the sanctions are just making China develop new technology to bypass them.

Funny how asianometry FEL EUV video came out on the same day as all this mainstream SSMB EUV news huh.
Click to expand...
It's like the western press discovered this thread...
We were talking about ssmb in 2021 feels good to be early even if it was just hopium back then.

Feels awfully coincidental all those western media sources reporting on it. Should keep on eye out for other pop Sci channels if they post things regarding ssmb and China.
 
T

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member

Aberration budget analysis of EUV lithography from the imaging performance of a contact layer in a 5 nm technology node.​

Institute of Microelectronics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Guangdong Greater Bay Area Applied Research Institute of Integrated Circuit and Systems, Guangzhou 510700, China

By analyzing the impact of aberration in an extreme ultraviolet lithography projector on the imaging indicators of the test patterns for a contact layer in a 5 nm technology node, this paper establishes a mathematical aberration model based on the back propagating neutral network. On the basis of an aberration model, a method for estimating the aberration budget is proposed, which can help reduce the difficulty of achieving imaging performance thresholds in actual production. The performance of the results given by this method is verified by using a rigorous simulation. The results show that the model is highly accurate in predicting an aberration distribution that meets the requirements through an inverse sensitivity analysis and can calculate the wavefront aberration margin based on imaging indicators.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
​
 
Quickie

Quickie

Colonel
ansy1968 said:
How much the cost of ASML EUVL is related to CYMER power source, 40% or $80 million? So if we do the math, a SSMB between the size of Shanghai and Beijing Synchrotron costing at $500 million powering at least at minimum 10 EUVL units at $120 million each for a total of $1.7 billion, compare that to ASML HI NA EUVL (since both are the same category tech wise) at $3billion ($300 million x 10). I think everybody with a functioning brain can do a business calculation which is better. ;)
Click to expand...

I believe the SSMB maintenance cost should also be much lower with a longer maintenance cycle than the Cymer light source since the former doesn't have to deal with tin debris messing with the lenses.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top