Chinatalk Jordan Schneider finally opens his mouth. Although he is better than many western outlets out there that still rely on yields as the weapon to attack Huawei Breakthrough. He attacked with China is stuck at 7NM and without western semiconductor equipment, wont be able to progress further for decades.
So, my question for the people who follow the semi-conductor industry, how true is this. If US stops selling of all semiconductor equipment to China, how long would it take for China to develop everything locally?
With my limited knowledge of Semiconductor tech, my impression is that semiconductor tech is not that hard. Its just as cutting edge as compared to say precision engineering required for making high quality jet engines. The only difference is Semiconductor tech was never weaponised and thus powerful countries never needed to worry about not having it.
Thus they allowed full market principles to work here. Which means they imported semiconductors as much as they could from the cheapest seller. Unlike say jen engines, which was always restricted technology and China had to invest on it for decades and are now close to the cutting edge of US tech.
Now that semiconductor has been weaponised, a global supply chain is simply not acceptable. Everything has to be localized and it will be.
But the question to people here, how long will that take? 5 years, 10 years? or just 2 years as some rumours suggest China will use its own EUV in 2 years.
