Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

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Can I ask what your estimate is for yield and wafer capacity at SMSC? I calculated 2mn Kirin 9000S per month using a low-ball estimate of (1) 7.5k 7nm wafers per month, and (2) 50%~ yield.

SMSC cannot devote all its capacity to HW mobile SoC. It also needs to produce CPUs and GPUs for HW.

Let's say 6k wpm for Kirin 9000S

Using stacking, I'm guessing you need 150-200mm total die space for Kirin 9000S (as in 2 80 to 90mm2 die stacked)
Each 12-inch wafer is 150mm in radius. Each die is around 10mm per side. crossing out edge. 14*14*3.14 = 615
75 % yield for smaller die should be achievable -> 461 good die -> 230 Kirin 9000S

230 * 6000 is close to 1.4 million/month. I'm probably overly conservative on the size of the die here, so actual number is probably higher than that. Now, let's use 9mm per side or 15 per radius. 15*15*3.14 = 706 -> 265 Kirin 9000S
 

gadgetcool5

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After reading the article it doesnt seems like its the case. I think its because many overseas Chinese who are educated/studied and lived in the West( mainly the US) and who have US citizenship or permanent stay are scared to be investigated by the US or even lose their citizenship/legal stay in the U.S/West and all the advantages that comes with it. Since US law now forbid any US citizenship or individual with US permanent residence from working with Chinas science/tech and semi conductor industry else they might lose their privilèges. Many will love to help their country of origin or even enjoy the high pay/benefits but not to the detriment of their US passport/legal status its seems.
China will need more than the thousand talents programs to make these people choose China over the U.S/West and stay in the country permanently
Most of these people were already living in China. The article doesn't say how many of them went back to the US and how many resigned. I think in general people overestimate the value of a US passport. Life in the US is not that much better than anywhere else. Most immigrants come here for money. They would also leave for the same. Many people feel that having US citizenship is valuable because of civil liberties you get. That's understandable. But if the US tells you that you can't do your job, and discriminates against you ethnically, either directly or indirectly, then that advantage is flushed down the drain. So yeah, I would not be surprised if a lot of those people switched to Chinese companies.
 

european_guy

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SMSC cannot devote all its capacity to HW mobile SoC. It also needs to produce CPUs and GPUs for HW.

Let's say 6k wpm for Kirin 9000S

Using stacking, I'm guessing you need 150-200mm total die space for Kirin 9000S (as in 2 80 to 90mm2 die stacked)
Each 12-inch wafer is 150mm in radius. Each die is around 10mm per side. crossing out edge. 14*14*3.14 = 615
75 % yield for smaller die should be achievable -> 461 good die -> 230 Kirin 9000S

230 * 6000 is close to 1.4 million/month. I'm probably overly conservative on the size of the die here, so actual number is probably higher than that. Now, let's use 9mm per side or 15 per radius. 15*15*3.14 = 706 -> 265 Kirin 9000S

Even 1M chips/month would be huge!

There is a message here: even if you ban Nvidia and friends, China will have enough local capacity for AI self-sufficiency (1 million chips/month are not a lot for smartphones but are an ocean for AI).

This message comes just at the right time...coincidence?

BTW far from clear if US administration will get it...I wouldn't hold my breath
 

manqiangrexue

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I dont think its only about the liberties the US offers. To be honest, the US also has many opportunities for tjose ready and well equiped to work for their dreams. Afterall, the US still has the largest tech/software industry globally and their companies are world leading innamny sectors plus they offer opportunities and advantages (citizenship, permanent residence to foriegn citizens whobare qualified, something China doesnt offer or only offers to overseas Chineses, so thats another disadvantage for China). Moroever, US has à strong diaspora comunity for almost every citizen of any country be it Chinese,indian, Vietnamese,korean, African, Brazilian, European etc etc so à qulified citizen from.any country moving to the US can still feel at home.meeting his people and interacting with his community in the US while alors enjoying a cosmopolitan vibe with people from all over the world. This is something Chinese cities still need a while to match or maybe never judging the cultural différences towards immigration.
Last but not least, not many people will choose to forgo their US passport over a Chinese one to be honest. One of the main reason is that US passport(like those of other Western countries along with Japan) still offers access to travel to so almost every country around the world(bar à couple of countries) visa free, so those highly educated and travel happy individuals will like to keep the passport which offers them the best ease of travel with the least hassle. So China still has a way to go in this aspect as well to make rheir passport attractive enough.
The US doesn't offer any liberties; they have police beatings. They benefit from a grass-is-greener-on-the-other-side effect coupled with a carry over effect from when the US was dominant. It's not all about the number of Chinese people willing to give up a US passport; it's about the kind of people as well. Restaurant workers, hair stylers, etc..., you'd have to skin and flay them before they'd give up that passport. Low level tech workers who code for 16 hours a day and get chewed out by the manager in China go to the US and suddenly have a 35 hour work week with a big salary so they'd want to stay. Small people strongly prefer the US. But when someone becomes extremely good at their work, this person has self pride, commands respect from others, gets a high salary anywhere (oftentimes higher in China) and knows tha s/he can change the landscape with his/her talents, this person is not scared to lose any passport especially if s/he is feeling racially disrespected by the large scope of society. Then, add the cherry on top, s/he gets targetted by a hate crime by some common hoodlum, voila! Fresh talent for China! It's not about numbers. one person like this is worth infinitely more than a thousand work grunts.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Umm no this is pure cope on display here. There is nothing low key about the Huawei Mate 60 release. It is the number one news item in China right now.

I don’t think there will be more articles from MSM on this for a couple of days. They are in complete shock right now and had no clue that this was coming. It is the tech equivalent of the Saudi-Iranian peace agreement. Remember how that went down?
You are right Huawei News is the number 1 news in Weibo Bloomberg follow up with the usual skepticism spin like "unverified" etc, Like they say if it quacks like a duck it is a duck

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Bloomberg News wasn’t able to verify the authenticity of those reports. The Chinese telecom regulator’s website didn’t show registration details for the model, as required of all wireless smartphones sold in the country.

But the torrent of online reports only gained momentum, in part because of Huawei’s unique status as Chinese national champion and American bugbear. On Wednesday, it topped the list of trending topics on Weibo, China’s X-like equivalent. The very idea appeared to endorse the “whole nation” narrative Beijing has espoused, where a nationwide effort can produce breakthroughs to counter the US.

The Mate 60 Pro is powered by a Kirin processor designed by Huawei’s chip arm HiSilicon, according to multiple teardown videos circulating online. Several online outlets reported the chip employed 5-nanometer node technology — just a generation behind the latest. Bloomberg News couldn’t determine the manufacturer or sophistication of the chip.

Chinese chipmakers aren’t known to have mastered technologies as advanced as 5-nm. Huawei stockpiled such chips from TSMC right before US sanctions hit, but it’s unclear whether the Mate 60 Pro might have used remnants of the company’s inventory.

The phone’s emergence coincides with a high-profile visit by US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to Beijing and Shanghai. Her agency has been at the forefront of curbs on Chinese entities including Huawei.

“This new phone has huge significance. Though it is evident that Huawei was able to build this model only by sourcing and production in a roundabout way, regardless of what it went though to achieve this, Huawei did it,” said Shi Junbo, a fund manager at Hangzhou XiYan Asset Management Co.


Chinese chip firms and Huawei suppliers including Lontium Semiconductor Corp., Cambricon Technologies Corp. and Anker Innovations Technology Co. climbed between 8% and 11%. Biwin Storage Technology Co. and Guangdong Leadyo IC Testing Co. surged their 20% daily limits. Top Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. climbed as much as 6.4% in Hong Kong.

“But in terms of the sentiment lift for the industry today, that shares have been at their lows probably is the more important factor than the phone. One model is probably not going to be enough to have a lasting impact on the sector,” Shi added.

The rally was unusual not just for a lack of evidence to support the online enthusiasm, but also because it coincides with warning signs of Chinese financial and economic stress — in part because of US pressure.

Huawei is one of several Chinese companies at the center of Washington-Beijing tensions, the target of sanctions over allegations it aids China’s military. The company, once the world’s biggest telecommunications provider, has been pulling out the stops since the Trump administration added Huawei to its Entities List in 2019.

Huawei began by assigning thousands of engineers to try and replicate American technology, for instance in wireless chips. And it also began putting in place the infrastructure to ensure its future survival.

The leading association of global chip companies warned this year that Huawei is building a collection of semiconductor-fabrication facilities across China, a shadow manufacturing network that would let the blacklisted company turn its chip designs into reality.

Read more: Asian AI Chip Stocks Climb as Nvidia, Google Expand Partnership

It remains unclear how Huawei could have found workarounds to some of the most sweeping restrictions on China that the US has ever imposed. Many in America have said Huawei enjoys broad government support, in part because of its critical role in domestic infrastructure and its stature overseas. When then-Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou was detained in Canada, Beijing officials intervened to secure her freedom.

Now, investors hope that Huawei can inspire its peers, several of which also labor under sanctions of varying severity. The Mate 60’s launch will be a catalyst for more homegrown, high-end smartphones, and trigger demand in the supply chain especially amid a downturn in semiconductors, Huajin Securities analysts including Sun Yuanfeng wrote in a note.

“It paves the way for Huawei to recover its shipments even quicker in its home country, with an almost zero-cost launch event,” Canalys Senior Vice President Nicole Peng said. “If the rumors are true, it means Huawei’s R&D capabilities have largely exceeded the industry development timeline, which means it creates huge disruption to the semi industry and its competitors.”
 

ansy1968

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Most of these people were already living in China. The article doesn't say how many of them went back to the US and how many resigned. I think in general people overestimate the value of a US passport. Life in the US is not that much better than anywhere else. Most immigrants come here for money. They would also leave for the same. Many people feel that having US citizenship is valuable because of civil liberties you get. That's understandable. But if the US tells you that you can't do your job, and discriminates against you ethnically, either directly or indirectly, then that advantage is flushed down the drain. So yeah, I would not be surprised if a lot of those people switched to Chinese companies.
Bro for the first time we agree on something....lol My question is how about those technical workers from Taiwan, SK and Japan? will they rather work in China or other places like in the US? I mean with increase compensation plus proximity from home, improve quality of life and cost of living?
 
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tphuang

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A really good video here on the teardown and analysis of Mate 60 pro
Definitely uses Kirin chip and it's definitely 5G based on speed tests
All the bluetooth and Wifi modules are Hisilicon (remember, HS modules will still source PA/LNA/filters from others)
There is a satcom chip in there (no idea by who)
memory chips are by SK Hynix

And also, the heat sink/vapor chamber is humongous. Again, to help dealing with 7nm process chip instead of 4/5nm
9000s appear to show slightly improved performance than 9000, with better heat performance but slightly worse power consumption
battery also produced by Huawei with 5000mAh of energy
88W fast charger
more heat dissipation around 50W wireless charger

the guy doing review says both camera & performance not as good as Huawei P60 (which uses Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1). Understandable since many have said its test scores are not at SD8 level
 

resistance

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Bro for the first time we agree on something....lol My question is how about those technical workers from Taiwan, SK and Japan? will they rather work in China or other places like in the US? I mean with increase compensation plus proximity from home, improve quality of life and cost of living.
I think for Taiwan, there are so many already allocated to china. That why Taiwan fined those who work with china.
 
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