Does NXT:1980 even matter anymore? China domestic lithography machine is about to/has already reached that level.
Look at Japan's Gallium consumption.
China squeezes key metal supplies in chip war escalation
Japan
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
- Status
Look at Japan's Gallium consumption.
Just few months ago ASML CEO said that eventually the ban scope would mimic the US one, so a ban for machines for sub-20nm nodes. Eventually he lost his battle.
Now we are 28nm. This is a new thing. IMHO in the medium term ASML is unfortunately doomed to leave the market.
To me this is just a last desperate attempt to keep selling in China for at least another 1/2 years. Indeed apart from SMIC and maybe the memory manufacturers, at the moment nobody in China needs sub 28nm, and it will be like this for at least another 1/2 years.
SMEE is maybe 1 year away from real volume production, and not with the 28nm. Before SMEE will be able to ramp up production to cover China market's needs for 28nm and more mature nodes, some more years are still needed, at least 2/3 in the most optimistic case. Now their market share is practically 0%. Going to 100% in a big market like China is a multi years effort and will leave ASML some space for the foreseeable future. This is different form US manufacturers, AMAT and friends. In that case localization is already at 50% or even more and they will be kicked out soon.
Last edited:
I wouldn't react so much to 1 report.
What we are told is that 1980i can be sold to China. Dutch gov't may have told ASML they need to develop more restricted version of 1980 for 28nm segment only, but I don't understand why they can't just keep selling 1970i or 1965i in that scenario.
For the time being, 2050i/2100i can be delivered until end of August. 1980i can be delivered likely for at least another year. That's plenty of time if you are China.
In general, now that China has shown it's willing to impose retaliation, that will give Europeans something else to think about. So, let this play out. Don't make quick conclusions
I would take news like this with a truck load of salt, but if this is correct and SMEE come up with an scanner that can be used for 14nm as i am hearing, that would make SMEE technologically superior for the first time.
antiterror13
Brigadier
The retaliation from China is a perfectly timed strategic move .. first Micron and now Gallium & Germanium .. whats next? Rare earth?
How about antibiotic ... and just choose for national security reason, out of the blue .... as the antibiotic can be used in military that the military is torturing and attacking innocent citizen and countries ... just a made up a story .. just learn from the big bully
Actually China has many options/cards to use, while the US has used almost all the cards ... game over soon
any decision to impose sanctions have to be about how it can help China overall. So something like antibiotics doesn't make sense at all.
Sanctioning small strategic resources make sense because no one else produces them and they have outsized contribution to your economy. If you loose monopoly, it's not a big deal
sanctioning Ga & Ge only make sense if your domestic end users become big winners here.
Use of sanction minimized your leverage, constriction is the better word. Instead of selling 1,000 ton make it half at 500, you retain your customer and make the same profit for less. The Russian and OPEC decision of reducing oil output is an example of such strategy, when you are a monopoly you want to maintain your position so why create a competitor out of thin air.
Rare earth will likely be next, particularly those with military applications like Yttrium. For example the phase shifters on the SPY-1 AEGIS radar is based on that element. Yttrium is used for permanent magnets like used for EVs, naval IEP drives and submarine electric motors. While Western powers will be forced to substitute, it will come at much higher prices.
Quzhou Leading 11 billion yuan project started, focusing on key materials for integrated circuits and other fields
On July 4th, the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government held a centralized commencement ceremony for the 2023 "Thousands of Trillions" major projects. This time the province started working intensively.
According to news from Quzhou Zhizao New City, the total investment of Quzhou Leading Integrated Circuit Key Materials and high-end compound semiconductors and device modules is 11 billion yuan. The total investment in the first phase of the project is about 9 billion yuan, and the construction land is about 838 mu; the investment in the second phase is about 2 billion yuan, and the construction land is about 200 mu. Newly built special gas workshops, Class A warehouses, raw and auxiliary material warehouses, R&D buildings, etc., and introduced advanced equipment from home and abroad.
It is reported that the construction period of the project is 2023-2026. After completion, it will have an annual output of more than 2,200 tons of MO sources, 150 tons of electronic special gas, 415,000 pieces of optical communication devices, 72 million access network devices, and 96,000 sets of fiber optic gyroscopes. 4.8 million sets of data centers, 3 million gallium arsenide substrates, 300,000 indium phosphide substrates, nitride substrates and their epitaxial wafers, and 60,000 pieces of chip production capacity, with an estimated annual new output value of about 24 billion yuan .
According to previous news released by Quzhou, in January this year, three 10-billion-yuan projects, including the electronic materials and devices project with a total investment of 11 billion yuan, were signed in Quzhou.
- Status