Everything you are dependent on from the western alliance (that includes Japan) can be weaponized with the stroke of a pen. Not only lithography machines. We need a modern day autarky for everything that is crucial to modern day life
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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semiconductor is the last major hold West currently has. that too fading away in mature nodes.
China basically completed 28nm supply chain. the only issue is right now is, scale up production. will take few years especially in DUVi. RSlaser and other suppliers of SMEE expanding the production lines.
"Data from the China Semiconductor Industry Association shows that the sales revenue of China's homegrown chip industry jumped to 516 billion yuan ($71 billion) in 2022 from 8.15 billion yuan in 2004, with an average annual compound growth rate of 25.9 percent. In comparison, the global average annual compound growth rate during the same period was 6.39 percent."
If these chips even use 0.0001% non-chinese elements, I certainly would not classified these as "homegrown", in current geopolitical context.
If these chips even use 0.0001% non-chinese elements, I certainly would not classified these as "homegrown", in current geopolitical context.
Probably some sensors, like the alignment sensors, they will have to find alternative suppliers, software can be made in China.
Could be, but is a fight with diminishing returns, as China is force to develop more and more, as Chinese suppliers keep growing and growing, is like the water pressure in that little submarine just looking to a weak point to implode everything apart, as sturdy some hawks brag their alliances are. I mean having allies is nice and dandy but at the end of the day politicians have to care about the people in their own countries. That is the problem with multilateral export controls, that its subject to each country internal weakness.
And its starting to happen, Chinese suppliers are growing so fast and getting cash so quickly that they are starting to venture outside of China to compete with Western suppliers, as predicted, losing China is one thing but losing sales outside China,no good. I may be wrong but is probably that some of the money of the "Chip Act" will end up in the hands of few Chinese suppliers. Diminishing returns.
And its starting to happen, Chinese suppliers are growing so fast and getting cash so quickly that they are starting to venture outside of China to compete with Western suppliers, as predicted, losing China is one thing but losing sales outside China,no good. I may be wrong but is probably that some of the money of the "Chip Act" will end up in the hands of few Chinese suppliers. Diminishing returns.
Xinhuazhang joins hands with the industry to build a national integrated circuit design automation technology innovation center
On June 29, the unveiling ceremony of the National Integrated Circuit Design Automation Technology Innovation Center (hereinafter referred to as "EDA National Innovation Center") and the first meeting of the council were held in Nanjing. Xinhuazhang, as the first EDA leading company with a complete digital verification full-process tool platform in China, is also the only local EDA member unit in Nanjing. In the early stage, under the leadership of Southeast University and Nanjing Jiangbei New District, it deeply participated in and assisted in launching the EDA National Innovation Center .
The EDA National Innovation Center is led by Southeast University and Nanjing Jiangbei New District, and is jointly established with key enterprises in the EDA field, universities, scientific research institutes and other advantageous resources. Hu Guangjie, vice governor of Jiangsu Province, congratulated the establishment of EDA National Innovation Center. He said that the integrated circuit industry is one of the advantageous industries with strong competitiveness in our province. It has formed a relatively complete industrial chain covering design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, equipment, materials and other links, and its industrial scale has ranked first in China for many years. The unveiling and operation of the EDA National Innovation Center will strongly support the high-quality development of my country's integrated circuit industry.
Hu Guangjie requested that the EDA National Innovation Center should focus on key core technology research, build an industry-university-research ecosystem, condense major scientific research tasks, and focus on gathering R&D talents; it should focus on breakthroughs in industrial common technologies such as next-generation intelligent EDA technology, and realize autonomy in some fields and key links Controllable, focus on improving the resilience and security level of the industrial chain and supply chain; improve the support ability of advanced technology, and focus on promoting the overall leap in the innovation capability of my country's integrated circuit industry. Relevant provincial departments should strengthen service guarantees, strengthen guidance and services for the construction and operation of the EDA National Innovation Center, and help coordinate and solve practical difficulties in the construction and development of the National Innovation Center.
The EDA National Innovation Center is led by Southeast University and Nanjing Jiangbei New District, and is jointly established with key enterprises in the EDA field, universities, scientific research institutes and other advantageous resources. Hu Guangjie, vice governor of Jiangsu Province, congratulated the establishment of EDA National Innovation Center. He said that the integrated circuit industry is one of the advantageous industries with strong competitiveness in our province. It has formed a relatively complete industrial chain covering design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, equipment, materials and other links, and its industrial scale has ranked first in China for many years. The unveiling and operation of the EDA National Innovation Center will strongly support the high-quality development of my country's integrated circuit industry.
Hu Guangjie requested that the EDA National Innovation Center should focus on key core technology research, build an industry-university-research ecosystem, condense major scientific research tasks, and focus on gathering R&D talents; it should focus on breakthroughs in industrial common technologies such as next-generation intelligent EDA technology, and realize autonomy in some fields and key links Controllable, focus on improving the resilience and security level of the industrial chain and supply chain; improve the support ability of advanced technology, and focus on promoting the overall leap in the innovation capability of my country's integrated circuit industry. Relevant provincial departments should strengthen service guarantees, strengthen guidance and services for the construction and operation of the EDA National Innovation Center, and help coordinate and solve practical difficulties in the construction and development of the National Innovation Center.
I read this as a failure from US to get what they wanted from Dutch government (the ban of all DUV immersion line)...so now they have to force the hand by themselves.
ASML gained more or less 8 months time, maybe not a lot, but with the pending threat from US of using long arm jurisdiction to ban ASML litho machines anyhow, even if they have a single bolt made in US, it was not easy to do better. The fact that US is now reverting to use that long arm ban weapon demonstrates that Dutch government pushed to the limits and even a bit more.
I agree on that front. They probably wanted a full ban on Arfi scanners. I don't think China will counter sanction Dutch over this. On the other hand, I wonder if all the meetings between Chinese politicians and ASML are requests for how quickly they can de-americanize their scanners. By this pt, ASML must know that it needs a de-americanized solution if it wants to be able to sell to the China market longer term.
I would say let's wait for comments from ASML, but there is a good chance that their 2023 guidance for China market does not change.
Also, everyone let's not get off topic. I will delete anything that's not semi related
ASML needs a production base in China to be able to sell to the China market longer term.
But I'm very pessimistic on that, not because ASML does't want to build one, but because there would be huge pressures to prevent it.
Few years ago there was an almost-deal between ASML and SMEE to setup a local JV...then the deal didn't materialize, and for sure not because of SMEE. So why ASML changed his mind? IMHO a possible Chinese localized production plant of ASML would meet the same pressure from the same forces that derailed the deal few yars ago.
Currently there are 1500 people in ASML China, but mostly in service and the only production site is not litho machine related.
BTW the ban on ASML will remain in history as the last big ban on semi manufacturing.
There will not be other bans with the same impact. Even a potential ban on materials (wafers and chemicals) from Japan, today would have limited impact in both time and scope. Any other kind of new ban would be moot. EDA software will be the last one to fall, but after reading the last updates on China EDA firms in the last months, we can have confidence that also that one will not be so impactful.
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Bro I see a strategic retreat from ASML, after those 8 months SMEE may able to satisfy some of the domestic demand as their expansion plan is finished, therefore the DUTCH may say that the sanction is ineffective as there is a local alternative and may ask to resume selling DUVL.
The same can be said about the EUVL when China introduced theirs in 2025.
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